# Richmond v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Richmond 64 – 103 Geelong Cats

_Geelong Cats toy with Richmond._

Half time: 15 – 78 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Richmond 7% / Geelong Cats 93% · MCG · Sat, 23 Aug, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Richmond: Tom Lynch (7' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Rhyan Mansell (18'), Seth Campbell (86' ×2), Dion Prestia (95' ×2), Tom Brown (69') · Geelong Cats: Jeremy Cameron (2' ×4 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Bowes (5'), Shaun Mannagh (12' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Rhys Stanley (22'), Oliver Dempsey (30'), Patrick Dangerfield (32' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tyson Stengle (51' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Martin (62' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 93% | Won |
| Richmond | 7% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 58.8 predicted → 39 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Richmond vs Geelong Cats Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 24, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Richmond 64–103 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 24 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Geelong Cats winning by 58.8 points. They won by 39. That's a miss on the margin, but the win probability call, 93% for the Cats, landed, and so did the total score prediction: 164 forecast against an actual combined 167, within four points. Three picks, one clean sweep. The margin was the only number that needed a rethink.

Look at the pre-match numbers and the gap starts to make sense. Geelong rated stronger in defence, 995 to 969, and in the ruck, 1020 to 980. Richmond actually edged them forward, 1011 to 994, and the midfield battle was rated basically even, 1017 to 1013. On paper this was meant to be tight in the engine room and one-sided at the back. That is roughly how it played out, just with more separation on the scoreboard than the ratings alone suggested.

The scoreline tells the story of a game that got away from Richmond early and never came all the way back. Geelong led 43-14 at quarter time. By half time it was 78-15, a 63-point gap built almost entirely in the second term, where Richmond managed a single point. Whatever the model was picking up on, Geelong delivered it in the first half and then some, well beyond what a 58.8-point pre-match margin would have anticipated.

The third quarter was more even in tone if not in outcome. Richmond added 15 to trail 95-30 at the last change, still buried by 65 points. Then the final term flipped: Richmond outscored Geelong 34-8 to finish 64-103, a 39-point defeat rather than the blowout the first half had threatened. That late change in shape is exactly why the model's margin came in high. It read the overall gap correctly but not the shape of when it would open and close.

The underlying numbers back up a genuinely competitive contest that just didn't convert. Richmond actually won the disposal count, 383 to 366, and led marks 108 to 94. But efficiency told a different story: Geelong hit targets at 73.3% to Richmond's 69.1%, and that gap matters more than raw possession. Contested ball was close, 128 to 124 Richmond's way, and clearances were dead even at 30 apiece. Inside 50s were nearly identical too, 55 for Geelong to 54 for Richmond.

Where Geelong pulled clear was what happened once the ball got inside forward 50 and what happened after it turned over. They took 19 marks inside 50 to Richmond's 14, meaning more of their entries actually stuck. They laid 57 tackles to Richmond's 40, a serious p

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 14 | 1 | 15 | 34 | 64 |
| Geelong Cats | 43 | 35 | 17 | 8 | 103 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Richmond | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| **383** | Disposals | 366 |
| **128** | Contested poss. | 124 |
| 30 | Clearances | 30 |
| 54 | Inside 50s | **55** |
| **108** | Marks | 94 |
| 14 | Marks inside 50 | **19** |
| 40 | Tackles | **57** |
| **31** | Hit-outs | 30 |
| 55 | Intercepts | **68** |
| 69.1% | Disposal eff. | **73.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 93% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 58.8 but the actual margin was 39 points. Total score prediction of 164 was close to the actual 167, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.03 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 93.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +59.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 59 · Predicted total: 164

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Richmond | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 130 · 197 | 257 · 163 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 6.7/g |
| Disposals | 80/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.2/g | 22/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.1/g | 11.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.1% | 68.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Richmond | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 42 · 78 | 75 · 53 |
| Goal Assists | 2.2/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.4/g | 23/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.7/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.5% | 70.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Richmond | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 23 · 29 | 10 · 24 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 107/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.1/g | 11/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.8% | 81.2% |

**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.83/g (lg 3.63) +6% · Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.51) +4% · Forwards 4.23/g (lg 4.46) -5%
**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.54/g (lg 3.63) +25% · Midfielders 2.72/g (lg 2.36) +15% · Rucks 0.57/g (lg 0.51) +12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 26 in 21g | 9/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·3) | 1/2g | 16/23g | 48% | — | 🏉 86' 84' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 23 in 15g | 17/10g (3·0·2·2·2·0·3·1·1·3) | 24/13g | 151/68g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 7' 72' 93' |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 17 in 19g | 11/10g (0·0·1·3·0·3·0·1·2·1) | 6/5g | 27/42g | 64% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 15 in 21g | 8/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·3·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 31/49g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 8 in 22g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/13g | 33/114g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Harry Armstrong | KF | 6 in 7g | 6/7g (0·2·0·2·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.88 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 6 in 22g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 8/39g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 26/91g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 5 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/2g | 16/29g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/22g | 16% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 7/49g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 0/7g | 26/56g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/25g | 14% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/12g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 18/102g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Taj Hotton | FWD | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Sonsie | FWD | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/18g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dion Prestia | MID | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 29/88g | 24% | — | 🏉 95' 89' |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/11g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/39g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Gibcus | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/13g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/92g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tylar Young | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/17g | 0% | — | — |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 79 in 22g | 41/10g (0·6·4·4·1·5·11·6·4·0) | 37/15g | 118/42g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.00 AI 98% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $5.50 AI 17% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' 39' 48' 91' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 29 in 20g | 18/10g (2·2·4·1·0·2·2·2·0·3) | 4/3g | 38/24g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' 79' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 27 in 22g | 8/10g (1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 3/3g | 14/12g | 74% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 26 in 19g | 14/10g (0·3·0·1·1·3·0·0·3·3) | 1/1g | 10/6g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 92' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 25 in 19g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·2·0·2·0·1·1) | 10/15g | 53/63g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' 54' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 17 in 22g | 8/10g (1·1·0·2·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 7/6g | 23/29g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Gryan Miers | FWD | 13 in 20g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·2) | 8/9g | 23/34g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.63 AI 62% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 13 in 17g | 9/10g (1·0·1·2·1·1·1·2·0·0) | 3/6g | 4/17g | 52% | — | 🏉 5' |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 11 in 22g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/4g | 17/28g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jack Martin | FWD | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·4·2) | 9/10g | 32/30g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 8 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 4/16g | 21/76g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 6 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 7/13g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/13g | 24/51g | 20% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 4 in 21g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 3/40g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/22g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Knevitt | FWD | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/34g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Henry | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 8/37g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jed Bews | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 5/43g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 2/49g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 27 ✗ |
| Jacob Hopper | 25.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 29 ✗ |
| Jayden Short ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 26 ✗ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 68% | 30 ✗ |
| Jack Ross ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 20 ✓ |
| Dion Prestia | 20.5 | $1.90 | 41% | 29 ✗ |
| Toby Nankervis | 16.5 | $1.92 | 53% | 14 ✓ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | 34.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 34 ✓ |
| Max Holmes | 31.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 26 ✓ |
| Gryan Miers ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 70% | 26 ✗ |
| Tom Stewart | 22.5 | $1.90 | 49% | 23 ✗ |
| Shaun Mannagh ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.83 | 65% | 18 ✓ |
| Tom Atkins | 21.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 27 ✗ |
| Jack Bowes ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.77 | 70% | 12 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie | 18.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 15 ✓ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 17.5 | $1.90 | 40% | 17 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)