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How Accurate Is Alphr?

Every prediction we make is tracked and verified. Here's how our models have performed across 1285 resolved AFL & NRL predictions in 2025.

H2H Accuracy

81.9%AFL
61.5%NRL

All Models

73.0%AFL
58.6%NRL

Brier Score

0.1809AFL
0.2424NRL

📊Round-by-Round H2H Accuracy

Bars = round accuracy · Lines = cumulative accuracy · Dashed = 50 % baseline

25%50%75%100%ORR3R6R9R12R15R18R21R24PFPFGF
AFL
NRL
Below 50 %

💰H2H P&L — 1 Unit Flat

Simulated profit / loss betting 1 unit on every Alphr H2H tip

AFL+60.5u+28.0% ROI216u staked177/216 won
NRL-16.2u-7.6% ROI213u staked131/213 won
-40u-20u0u+20u+40u+60uORR3R6R9R12R15R18R21R24PFPFGF
AFL
NRL

Accuracy by Model

Strike rate and Brier score per model — AFL in green, NRL in blue.

Head to Head

Win/loss predictions
AFL
81.9%177/216B 0.1451
NRL
61.5%131/213B 0.2300

Margin Band

Victory margin range
AFL
76.9%166/216B 0.1552
NRL
60.4%128/212B 0.2325

Over/Under

Total score predictions
AFL
60.2%130/216B 0.2423
NRL
53.8%114/212B 0.2648

Edge-Filtered Picks

Predictions where our model found ≥7 % edge over market odds.

75.2%AFL

173/230

52.8%NRL

86/163

Expected vs Actual

How closely predicted probabilities align with outcomes. A perfectly calibrated model sits on the diagonal.

50-60%

AFL61% actual · 55% exp · 282
NRL50% actual · 55% exp · 221

60-70%

AFL64% actual · 65% exp · 78
NRL58% actual · 65% exp · 278

70-80%

AFL77% actual · 75% exp · 70
NRL74% actual · 75% exp · 129

80%+

AFL90% actual · 91% exp · 218
NRL56% actual · 91% exp · 9
Expected
AFL
NRL

Brier Score by Model

Lower is better. 0 = perfect, 0.25 = coin flip.

Head to Head

0.14510.2300

Margin Band

0.15520.2325

Over/Under

0.24230.2648

Result Composition

Breakdown of resolved predictions by outcome.

AFL73 % won · 473/648
NRL59 % won · 373/637

Methods

All metrics are calculated from 648 resolved AFL predictions and 637 resolved NRL predictions from the 2025 season. AFL predictions are generated by XGBoost models trained on 12 years of match data using 49 engineered features. NRL predictions use XGBoost models trained on 15 years of data with ~160 features including referee bias modelling.

Accuracy is the proportion of predictions where the model's selected outcome matched reality. Brier score measures the mean squared error between predicted probability and actual outcome (0 = perfect, 0.25 = coin flip).

Edge picks are filtered to require ≥7 % edge between model probability and market-implied probability. Calibration is assessed by grouping predictions into probability buckets and comparing expected win rate to actual win rate.

All 1286 predictions are transparently tracked and verifiable on this site.

Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions about how we measure prediction accuracy.

What does "accuracy" mean here?
Accuracy is the percentage of predictions where Alphr's selected outcome (e.g., which team wins) matched the actual result.
What is a Brier score?
A Brier score measures the quality of probabilistic predictions. It's the mean squared error between the predicted probability and the actual result (1 or 0). Lower is better — 0 is perfect, 0.25 is no better than a coin flip.
What are "edge picks"?
Edge picks are predictions where our model's estimated probability is at least 7 percentage points higher than the market-implied probability (1 / odds). These are our highest-conviction selections.
How is the calibration chart read?
Each row represents a probability range. If a model says 60-70 % and the actual win rate is ~65 %, it's well-calibrated. The grey line shows the expected midpoint; the coloured bar shows actuals.
Where does this data come from?
All data comes from AFL and NRL match results from the 2025 season. Predictions are generated pre-match, recorded, and verified against actual outcomes. Nothing is adjusted or removed after the fact.