# Essendon v Carlton — AFL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 56 – 90 Carlton

_Carlton see off Essendon._

Half time: 18 – 48 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 18% / Carlton 82% · MCG · Thu, 21 Aug, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Peter Wright (12' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Matt Guelfi (37' ×2), Kyle Langford (63' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (28m 38s)Isaac Kako (60'), Isaac Kako (65') · Carlton: Jesse Motlop (13' Tipped ⚡), Will White (16'), George Hewett (21'), Hudson OKeeffe (32'), Flynn Young (41' ×2), Ashton Moir (54' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Francis Evans (81' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Zac Williams (87' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 82% | Won |
| Essendon | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 18.9 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon vs Carlton Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 24, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Essendon 56–90 Carlton in AFL Round 24 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Carlton's second quarter is where this one got away from Essendon. The margin sat at 12 points after the first term, Carlton 22 to Essendon's 10, nothing outrageous about that. Then Carlton piled on 26 points to Essendon's 8 in the second, and by half time it was 48 to 18. A contest became a beating in the space of one quarter, and Essendon never found a way back into it.

Final score: Carlton 90, Essendon 56, a 34-point win that was actually a bit tighter on the board than the trend suggested. Carlton led 74–36 at three-quarter time, so the margin had blown out to 38 before Essendon managed a respectable last quarter of their own, 20 points to Carlton's 16. Too late to matter, but it stopped the embarrassment from getting worse.

The clearance count tells you where the game was decided. Carlton won it 38 to 27, and that dominance in the guts fed everything else. Fifty-eight inside 50s to 39 is a monster gap, and Carlton were sharper once they got there too, 13 marks inside forward 50 against Essendon's 8. When you're getting it forward that much more often and locking it in better once you arrive, 90 points is what happens.

Oddly, Essendon actually won the disposal efficiency count, 76.6% to 75.6%, and edged contested possessions 117 to 115. Doesn't mean much when the volume of forward entries and clearances is that lopsided. Essendon also out-tackled Carlton, 49 to 42, which usually points to a team defending more than it's attacking. That fits the shape of this game perfectly.

Carlton's ruck edge, 1097 to Essendon's 1015 in the pre-match ratings, showed up in the 30 to 28 hit-out count and flowed straight into that clearance dominance. Their forward line rating of 1079 against Essendon's 998 explains the accuracy inside 50 too. The bigger positional gaps on paper turned into the bigger numbers on the board.

Alphr's model backed Carlton at 82% and got the winner right, but the margin pick of 18.9 points undersold it by a fair way, with the actual result landing at 34. The total was the other miss, tipped at 171 combined points but the sides produced 146. Two out of three isn't a disaster, but a 34-point margin against a predicted 18.9 shows Carlton's forward and ruck edges mattered more on the day than the ratings had them down for.

Essendon came in on the back of better recent scoring, averaging 98.9 points across their last five to Carlton's 92.2, but conceding 79.7 to Carlton's 66.8 tells the real story. This was a defensive mismatch dressed up as a form contest, and Carlton's edge held up exactly where it was supposed to. Essendon's tackle count says they competed. The scoreboard says it wasn't nearly enough.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 10 | 8 | 18 | 20 | 56 |
| Carlton | 22 | 26 | 26 | 16 | 90 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| 382 | Disposals | **397** |
| **117** | Contested poss. | 115 |
| 27 | Clearances | **38** |
| 39 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| 99 | Marks | **114** |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| **49** | Tackles | 42 |
| 28 | Hit-outs | **30** |
| 51 | Intercepts | **54** |
| **76.6%** | Disposal eff. | 75.6% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 82% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 18.9 but the actual margin was 34 points. The game's 146 points came in 25 points lower than the predicted 171. The model went 2/3 on this match. Carlton covered the 21.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.30 (edge +4.6%) — model probability 81.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +21.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 165.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 19 · Predicted total: 171

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 115 · 193 | 153 · 179 |
| Goal Assists | 2.7/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 99/g | 85/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.8/g | 15.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5.4/g | 7.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.6% | 65.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 72 · 68 | 56 · 59 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 140/g | 164/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.8/g | 25/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.3% | 68.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 27 | 37 · 28 |
| Goal Assists | 0.9/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 131/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.5/g | 13.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.1% | 75.7% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.6/g (lg 0.51) +18% · Forwards 4.53/g (lg 4.45) +2% · Defenders 1.22/g (lg 1.25) -2%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.43/g (lg 1.25) +14% · Forwards 4.99/g (lg 4.45) +12% · Key Forwards 4.03/g (lg 3.64) +11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 26 in 17g | 13/10g (3·2·1·1·0·2·2·0·1·1) | 17/10g | 51/32g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 12' 70' |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 17 in 19g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·2) | 1/5g | 17/31g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 12 in 21g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/7g | 55% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Liam McMahon | KF | 11 in 5g | 11/5g (2·2·0·4·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 84% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 10 in 18g | 6/10g (1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/11g | 34/28g | 52% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 9 in 20g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 9/17g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 9 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/14g | 34/78g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jye Menzie | FWD | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·4·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 10/14g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 6 in 7g | 10/10g (0·1·3·2·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 6/8g | 48/48g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' |
| – | Matt Guelfi | FWD | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/6g | 19/34g | 60% | — | 🏉 37' 83' |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 5 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/4g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Luamon Lual | MID | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/42g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Shiel | MID | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/8g | 12/44g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 6/54g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Unwin | FWD | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/14g | 11/30g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Nguyen | FWD | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Johnson | DEF | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 21 in 11g | 20/10g (0·3·0·3·2·0·1·1·3·7) | 12/6g | 97/47g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 21 in 18g | 11/10g (2·1·1·3·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 9/9g | 16/36g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 87' |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 16 in 22g | 7/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/2g | 16/25g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 14 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 11/22g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 14 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/12g | 39/88g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Francis Evans | FWD | 10 in 9g | 10/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·4·2) | 1/2g | 4/9g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 81' 84' 75' |
| – | Will White | FWD | 9 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/6g | 44% | — | 🏉 16' |
| – | Ashton Moir | FWD | 8 in 8g | 10/10g (1·1·0·1·0·4·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 5/4g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 54' 74' |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 6 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 14/48g | 24% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/22g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 6 in 21g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 16/35g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 16/41g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 15/46g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/24g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Flynn Young | FWD | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 29% | — | 🏉 41' 78' |
| – | Hudson O'Keeffe | RUC | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/64g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/16g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Billy Wilson | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 7/75g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lucas Camporeale | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/32g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 28.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 24 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.80 | 68% | 30 ✗ |
| Archie Roberts | 24.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 28 ✗ |
| Mason Redman | 24.5 | $1.85 | 64% | 34 ✗ |
| Dylan Shiel ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $2.00 | 72% | 30 ✗ |
| Xavier Duursma ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.85 | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| Jaxon Prior | 16.5 | $1.86 | 61% | 17 ✗ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | 29.5 | $1.89 | 60% | 28 ✓ |
| George Hewett | 28.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 36 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps | 27.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 28 ✗ |
| Oliver Hollands ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 63% | 21 ✓ |
| Blake Acres | 19.5 | $1.95 | 48% | 29 ✗ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 15 ✓ |
| Nick Haynes | 18.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 15 ✓ |
| Adam Saad | 18.5 | $1.79 | 57% | 16 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)