AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 82% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 18.9 but the actual margin was 34 points. The game's 146 points came in 25 points lower than the predicted 171. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Essendon
18%
Carlton
82%
AI Match Overview
Carlton are clear favourites here at 82%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. The model sees Carlton ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Carlton carry a 50-point ELO rating advantage (1548 vs 1498). Recent form favours Essendon with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Carlton by 18.9 points with a combined total of 171.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @1.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.6%
Line / Spread
Carlton +21.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.6%
Total Points
Over 165.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | W W W W L | 98.9 |
Carlton | W W W L L | 92.2 |
Avg Conceded
79.7
Essendon
66.8
Carlton
Avg Margin
-8.9
Essendon
6.4
Carlton
Disposals
376.8
Essendon
355.2
Carlton
Inside 50s
52.7
Essendon
56.5
Carlton
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
82%
Carlton predicted to win by 19 points
Predicted total: 171 · Line: -18.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.10
Team Effectiveness
+0.21
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.