# Western Bulldogs v Fremantle — AFL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 97 – 112 Fremantle

_Fremantle see off Western Bulldogs._

Half time: 32 – 58 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 69% / Fremantle 31% · Marvel Stadium · Sun, 24 Aug, 03:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Aaron Naughton (8' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Jordan Croft (20' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Rhylee West (23' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Joel Freijah (74' ×3), Arthur Jones (82' ×2), Marcus Bontempelli (88' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Oskar Baker (77') · Fremantle: Shai Bolton (11' ×2), Jye Amiss (18' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Luke Jackson (39' ×2), Murphy Reid (48'), Patrick Voss (55' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Josh Treacy (59' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Michael Frederick (77' ×2), Neil Erasmus (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 69% | Lost |
| Fremantle | 31% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 24.4 predicted → 15 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Western Bulldogs 97–112 Fremantle in AFL Round 24 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model liked the Western Bulldogs by 24.4 points and gave them a 69% chance of winning. Fremantle won by 15. That is not a near miss, it is the model getting the shape of the game backwards, and it is worth walking back through the quarters to see exactly where the read fell apart.

Start with the bit the model got right, at least for a while. Everything about the Bulldogs' form pointed to control: positional ratings ahead of Fremantle in all four categories, midfield 1112 to 1056, forwards 1099 to 1059, defence 1103 to 989, ruck 1145 to 1085. Early on, that showed up. The Bulldogs led 29-14 at quarter time, a handy margin and exactly the kind of start those numbers suggested.

Then the second quarter happened. Using the cumulative scores, Fremantle outscored the Bulldogs 44 to 3 in that term, turning a 15-point deficit into a 26-point lead at half time, 58-32. That is the stretch that actually decided the match, not some late fade. A side with a defence rating of 1103 against Fremantle's 989 should not go missing for a whole quarter like that, but the numbers say they did.

From there Fremantle mostly had to hold what they'd built. They stretched it to 84-52 by three-quarter time, adding 26 more while the Bulldogs put on 20. The last quarter tightened things up, with the score moving from 84-52 to the final 112-97, meaning Fremantle added 28 and the Bulldogs 45. A strong final term, but closing a 32-point three-quarter-time gap to 15 still means the game was decided well before the last siren.

The stat sheet explains why the model leaned so hard on the Bulldogs, and why that lean was misleading. They won disposals 351 to 325, contested possession 145 to 129, clearances 42 to 33, marks 81 to 66, hit-outs 45 to 39. On raw volume this was a Bulldogs performance, and a comfortable one. But Fremantle did more with less. Disposal efficiency ran 76.7 per cent to 73.9. Fremantle also won marks inside 50, 14 to 12, from fewer inside 50s overall, 58 to 55, and out-tackled the Bulldogs 69 to 61. They didn't need the ball as often. They just used it better when they had it, and intercepted at almost the same rate, 65 to 64, which meant the Bulldogs' extra possession never turned into the sort of scoreboard pressure their form suggested it would.

Fremantle's own recent numbers make this look less like an upset and more like a team performing close to type. Their last-five average score was 106.1 points and their average margin coming in was plus-7.7, modest compared to the Bulldogs' plus-24.1. Winning by 15 here is actually a step up on that recent standard, not some wild outlier, even if the model never saw it coming.

Alphr's own model finished 1 from 3 on this one. It missed the head-to-head result, backing the Bulldogs at 69 per cent, and it missed the margin, tipping 24.4 points in the Bulldogs' favour against an actual 15-point Fremantle win. It did get the total right, correctly picking the over on 173.5 as the game produced 209 points, 29 more than its 180-point projection. Three calls, one right, and the one that mattered most, who wins, was the one it got backwards.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 29 | 3 | 20 | 45 | 97 |
| Fremantle | 14 | 44 | 26 | 28 | 112 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| **351** | Disposals | 325 |
| **145** | Contested poss. | 129 |
| **42** | Clearances | 33 |
| 55 | Inside 50s | **58** |
| **81** | Marks | 66 |
| 12 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| 61 | Tackles | **69** |
| **45** | Hit-outs | 39 |
| 64 | Intercepts | **65** |
| 73.9% | Disposal eff. | **76.7%** |

**Model Report Card**

Fremantle defied the model's 69% prediction for Western Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 24.4 but the actual margin was 15 points. The game's 209 points came in 29 points higher than the predicted 180. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 173.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.36 (edge -5.0%) — model probability 68.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -19.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 24 · Predicted total: 180

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 199 · 167 | 177 · 170 |
| Goal Assists | 4.6/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 92/g | 75/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.8/g | 15/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.5/g | 7.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.1% | 68.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 121 · 63 | 78 · 60 |
| Goal Assists | 6.2/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 175/g | 157/g |
| Inside 50s | 30.3/g | 28.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.4/g | 2.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.7% | 69.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 35 · 18 | 16 · 21 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.4/g | 8.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.8% | 80.8% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.43/g (lg 2.39) +2% · Forwards 4.19/g (lg 4.43) -5% · Key Forwards 3.43/g (lg 3.63) -6%
**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.51/g (lg 2.39) +5% · Key Forwards 3.42/g (lg 3.63) -6% · Rucks 0.45/g (lg 0.51) -12%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 58 in 22g | 39/10g (3·1·3·5·5·2·7·5·5·3) | 14/11g | 137/77g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 88' |
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | 48 in 16g | 34/10g (3·5·3·4·2·1·6·5·2·3) | 9/4g | 49/23g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 92% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 37 in 22g | 18/10g (1·2·1·1·1·4·3·1·1·3) | 7/7g | 46/41g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' 29' |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 22 in 22g | 11/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·2·1·2·2) | 1/10g | 31/69g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 21 in 22g | 6/10g (2·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 8/8g | 31/47g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 19 in 17g | 11/10g (0·3·1·2·0·1·2·0·0·2) | 17/16g | 148/133g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 88' 70' |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 17 in 20g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·3·1·0) | 3/4g | 20/39g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 15 in 22g | 8/10g (1·0·4·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/19g | 38% | — | 🏉 74' 93' 96' |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 13 in 18g | 10/10g (2·1·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·3) | 0/1g | 8/9g | 61% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 13 in 22g | 8/10g (1·2·0·2·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 9/12g | 46/72g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 6 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 44/122g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 21/82g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 5 in 22g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 3/30g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/11g | 50/89g | 12% | — | — |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/27g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 3 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/10g | 35/45g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jason Johannisen | DEF | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 38/101g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Croft | KF | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 82' |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Riley Garcia | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 8/22g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Arthur Jones | FWD | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 19% | — | 🏉 82' 85' |
| – | Jedd Busslinger | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oskar Baker | FWD | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/19g | 16% | — | 🏉 77' |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 39 in 22g | 16/10g (0·3·3·2·1·0·0·3·2·2) | 11/5g | 6/7g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' 68' |
| – | Patrick Voss | KF | 31 in 18g | 21/10g (3·1·0·1·1·6·3·3·3·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' 92' 66' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 28 in 22g | 11/10g (0·0·0·1·2·2·3·3·0·0) | 9/5g | 10/5g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 44' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 28 in 22g | 11/10g (0·2·0·1·2·0·4·0·2·0) | 12/8g | 14/12g | 64% | — | 🏉 77' 84' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 25 in 21g | 9/10g (1·2·1·0·2·0·1·0·2·0) | 13/8g | 18/18g | 68% | — | 🏉 11' 51' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 23 in 22g | 9/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 75% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 17 in 19g | 13/10g (2·3·2·2·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 9/10g | 9/12g | 62% | — | 🏉 39' 94' |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 11 in 16g | 9/10g (0·2·1·1·3·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/12g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 7 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 8/12g | 9/19g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 7 in 22g | 6/10g (1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 0/14g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 7 in 7g | 8/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·3·0) | 1/6g | 1/12g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 7/16g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 2/17g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Banfield | DEF | 4 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/6g | 13/12g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jaeger O'Meara | MID | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 11/28g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/14g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/16g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/20g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nat Fyfe | MID | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/13g | 24/26g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Neil Erasmus | MID | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | 🏉 79' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.83 | 66% | 33 ✗ |
| Bailey Dale ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.90 | 72% | 23 ✓ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 21 ✓ |
| Tom Liberatore | 24.5 | $1.88 | 50% | 27 ✗ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 22.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 23 ✗ |
| Bailey Williams | 19.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 16 ✓ |
| Lachlan Bramble | 18.5 | $1.95 | 49% | 14 ✓ |
| Tim English | 18.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 15 ✓ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.89 | 70% | 24 ✓ |
| Andrew Brayshaw ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 19 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | 24.5 | $1.90 | 62% | 23 ✓ |
| Hayden Young ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.75 | 76% | 16 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 19.5 | $1.88 | 49% | 20 ✗ |
| Luke Jackson ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.83 | 73% | 12 ✓ |
| Shai Bolton | 17.5 | $1.90 | 59% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)