AI Game Review
Fremantle defied the model's 69% prediction for Western Bulldogs — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 24.4 but the actual margin was 15 points. The game's 209 points came in 29 points higher than the predicted 180. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 173.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
69%
Fremantle
31%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Fremantle. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Western Bulldogs carry a 192-point ELO rating advantage (1796 vs 1603). The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 24.4 points with a combined total of 180.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.36
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.0%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -19.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.0%
Total Points
Over 173.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | WWWWL | 116.4 |
Fremantle | WWWWL | 87.0 |
Avg Conceded
62.2
Western Bulldogs
81.8
Fremantle
Avg Margin
54.2
Western Bulldogs
5.2
Fremantle
Disposals
371.0
Western Bulldogs
328.0
Fremantle
Inside 50s
50.0
Western Bulldogs
50.0
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 24 points
Predicted total: 180 · Line: +24.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.12
Team Effectiveness
+0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.