AI Game Review
Fremantle defied the model's 69% prediction for Western Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 24.4 but the actual margin was 15 points. The game's 209 points came in 29 points higher than the predicted 180. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 173.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
69%
Fremantle
31%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Fremantle. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 45-point ELO rating advantage (1589 vs 1543). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 24.4 points with a combined total of 180.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.36
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.0%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -19.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.0%
Total Points
Over 173.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | W W L L L | 89.9 |
Fremantle | W L L L L | 106.1 |
Avg Conceded
77.8
Western Bulldogs
90.8
Fremantle
Avg Margin
24.1
Western Bulldogs
7.7
Fremantle
Disposals
358.4
Western Bulldogs
348.3
Fremantle
Inside 50s
57.9
Western Bulldogs
54.3
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 24 points
Predicted total: 180 · Line: +24.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.12
Team Effectiveness
+0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.