AI Game Review
Fremantle defied the model's 69% prediction for Western Bulldogs — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 24.4 but the actual margin was 15 points. The game's 209 points came in 29 points higher than the predicted 180. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 173.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
69%
Fremantle
31%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Fremantle. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 45-point ELO rating advantage (1589 vs 1543). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 24.4 points with a combined total of 180.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.36
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.0%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -19.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.0%
Total Points
Over 173.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | W W L L L | 89.9 |
Fremantle | W L L L L | 106.1 |
Avg Conceded
77.8
Western Bulldogs
90.8
Fremantle
Avg Margin
24.1
Western Bulldogs
7.7
Fremantle
Disposals
358.4
Western Bulldogs
348.3
Fremantle
Inside 50s
57.9
Western Bulldogs
54.3
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 24 points
Predicted total: 180 · Line: +24.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.12
Team Effectiveness
+0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.