# AFL Round 24 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 24 of the 2025 season — 10 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 24 at a glance
- 10 matches · 21W–9L on 30 settled picks (70% strike rate) · best value +21.1% edge

## Round 24 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions @ $1.72 | Brisbane Lions 79% | WON |
| Collingwood v Melbourne | Collingwood @ $1.27 | Collingwood 93% | WON |
| Essendon v Carlton | Carlton @ $1.30 | Carlton 82% | WON |
| West Coast Eagles v Sydney Swans | Sydney Swans @ $1.14 | Sydney Swans 98% | WON |
| North Melbourne v Adelaide Crows | Adelaide Crows @ $1.18 | Adelaide Crows 95% | WON |
| GWS GIANTS v St Kilda | GWS GIANTS @ $1.18 | GWS GIANTS 89% | WON |
| Richmond v Geelong Cats | Geelong Cats @ $1.03 | Geelong Cats 93% | WON |
| Port Adelaide v Gold Coast SUNS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.27 | Gold Coast SUNS 75% | LOST |
| Western Bulldogs v Fremantle | Western Bulldogs @ $1.36 | Western Bulldogs 69% | LOST |
| Gold Coast SUNS v Essendon | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.05 | Gold Coast SUNS 97% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Gabba · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 79.2% / Hawthorn 20.8%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.72 (edge +21.1%) — model probability 79.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 12 · Predicted total: 173
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r24-brisbane-lions-v-hawthorn

### Collingwood v Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 93.0% / Melbourne 7.0%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.27 (edge +14.2%) — model probability 93.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -23.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 28 · Predicted total: 172
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r24-collingwood-v-melbourne

### Essendon v Carlton
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 18.5% / Carlton 81.5%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.30 (edge +4.6%) — model probability 81.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +21.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 165.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 19 · Predicted total: 171
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r24-essendon-v-carlton

### West Coast Eagles v Sydney Swans
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 2.2% / Sydney Swans 97.8%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.14 (edge +10.1%) — model probability 97.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +34.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 59 · Predicted total: 149
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r24-west-coast-eagles-v-sydney-swans

### North Melbourne v Adelaide Crows
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 5.5% / Adelaide Crows 94.5%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.18 (edge +9.8%) — model probability 94.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +34.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 39 · Predicted total: 145
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r24-north-melbourne-v-adelaide-crows

### GWS GIANTS v St Kilda
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · ENGIE Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 89.4% / St Kilda 10.6%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.18 (edge +4.7%) — model probability 89.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -30.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 29 · Predicted total: 184
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r24-gws-giants-v-st-kilda

### Richmond v Geelong Cats
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 6.7% / Geelong Cats 93.3%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.03 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 93.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +59.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 59 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r24-richmond-v-geelong-cats

### Port Adelaide v Gold Coast SUNS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 25.0% / Gold Coast SUNS 75.0%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.27 (edge -3.7%) — model probability 75.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +22.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.7%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 18 · Predicted total: 146
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r24-port-adelaide-v-gold-coast-suns

### Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 68.5% / Fremantle 31.5%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.36 (edge -5.0%) — model probability 68.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -19.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 24 · Predicted total: 180
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r24-western-bulldogs-v-fremantle

### Gold Coast SUNS v Essendon
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · People First Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 97.0% / Essendon 3.0%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.05 (edge +1.7%) — model probability 97.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 70 · Predicted total: 213
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r24-gold-coast-suns-v-essendon

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/23 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/23.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/25 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/25.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Last updated: 2026-07-04 09:31 UTC