# Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn — AFL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 89 – 79 Hawthorn

_Brisbane Lions roar past Hawthorn in a tight one._

Half time: 46 – 41 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 79% / Hawthorn 21% · Gabba · Sun, 24 Aug, 07:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Jaspa Fletcher (42'), Kai Lohmann (45' ×2), Charlie Cameron (53' ×2), Cam Rayner (62' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Hugh McCluggage (69'), Bruce Reville (84') · Hawthorn: Mabior Chol (8' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Gunston (38' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mitch Lewis (58' Tipped ⚡), Jack Ginnivan (64' ×2), Lloyd Meek (78'), Dylan Moore (65'), Nick Watson (91' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 79% | Won |
| Hawthorn | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.5 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Brisbane Lions 89–79 Hawthorn in AFL Round 24 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

A hundred and thirteen marks to 63. That's the number that decided this one, and it's how Brisbane Lions ran out 89-79 winners over Hawthorn at the Gabba. When one side is taking almost double the uncontested grabs of the other, the footy stays where it wants it to stay, and Brisbane made sure of that all afternoon.

It didn't start that way. Hawthorn came out of the blocks hard and led 21-8 at quarter time, looking every bit the side rated stronger on paper coming in, with the better midfield, forward line and ruck by the model's positional numbers. But Brisbane clawed the lead back by half time, going up 46-41, and by the last change had stretched it to 67-56. Hawthorn never got the margin back under 10 points from there.

The clearance count tells you why the tide turned. Brisbane won that battle 42-34 and backed it up with 142 contested possessions to 129, the kind of grunt work that flips field position over four quarters even when the other side started on top. Add in 63 inside 50s to 55, and Brisbane simply had more shots at goal than Hawthorn did.

Hawthorn's answer was efficiency, not volume. They only managed 14 marks inside 50 to Brisbane's 11, which says a lot about who used their entries better even while losing the territory battle. It wasn't enough to offset finishing 63 disposals behind at 342 to 394, or the fact Brisbane's ball use was cleaner too, with a disposal efficiency edge of 73.3% to 71.9%.

Where Brisbane really made its dominance count was through the air on defence. Sixty-six intercepts to 56 meant Hawthorn's forward entries kept getting cut off before they turned into scoreboard pressure, and with hit-outs also going Brisbane's way, 43 to 39, they had first use out of the middle more often than not.

It's a result that runs a bit against the recent form line. Hawthorn had been scoring at 107.2 points a game over their last five with an average winning margin of 19.2, while Brisbane had been grinding out 90.8 a game and living on the margin's edge at plus 2.5. On raw positional ratings, Hawthorn were stronger everywhere except defence. None of that showed up in the disposal or inside 50 counts, where Brisbane's last-five form of 353.7 disposals and 52.9 inside 50s a game (both ahead of Hawthorn's 336.2 and 42.1) turned out to be the more reliable guide.

Alphr's model had Brisbane at 79% to win, tipped them by 11.5 points and picked a combined total of 173. The final margin was 10, the total 168. Close enough on both counts, and Brisbane covered the 5.5-point line as well. Two from three isn't a bad afternoon's work when the underlying numbers, the marks especially, back it up so plainly.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 8 | 38 | 21 | 22 | 89 |
| Hawthorn | 21 | 20 | 15 | 23 | 79 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| **394** | Disposals | 342 |
| **142** | Contested poss. | 129 |
| **42** | Clearances | 34 |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 55 |
| **113** | Marks | 63 |
| 11 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| **57** | Tackles | 54 |
| **43** | Hit-outs | 39 |
| **66** | Intercepts | 56 |
| **73.3%** | Disposal eff. | 71.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 79% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Brisbane Lions by 11.5 vs the actual margin of 10 points. Total score prediction of 173 was close to the actual 168, within 5 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. Brisbane Lions covered the 5.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.72 (edge +21.1%) — model probability 79.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 169.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 12 · Predicted total: 173

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 197 · 170 | 212 · 155 |
| Goal Assists | 4.3/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 86/g | 99/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.5/g | 17.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.4/g | 10.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.2% | 67.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 66 · 59 | 45 · 56 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 163/g | 137/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.4/g | 21.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.1% | 69.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Hawthorn |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 23 · 23 | 32 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.5/g | 13.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.1% | 79.7% |

**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.33/g (lg 1.24) +7% · Midfielders 2.36/g (lg 2.39) -1% · Key Forwards 3.5/g (lg 3.64) -4%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.44/g (lg 4.43) +0% · Key Forwards 3.29/g (lg 3.64) -10% · Midfielders 2.15/g (lg 2.39) -10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 47 in 21g | 27/10g (0·5·5·1·2·1·0·6·3·4) | 4/2g | 30/17g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 33 in 21g | 15/10g (0·1·1·0·5·1·1·2·2·2) | 4/8g | 76/80g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 27 in 22g | 16/10g (2·1·3·0·2·1·3·2·0·2) | 15/9g | 74/80g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' 85' |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 24 in 20g | 12/10g (2·0·0·3·3·1·0·0·0·3) | 23/14g | 167/89g | 70% | — | 🏉 53' 66' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 23 in 21g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 4/5g | 35/62g | 70% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 11 in 22g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 66/101g | 52% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 11 in 22g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 5/10g | 47% | — | — |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 10 in 13g | 10/10g (0·0·0·3·1·0·2·1·1·2) | 2/2g | 22/23g | 64% | — | 🏉 45' 48' |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 10 in 22g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·3·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 10/25g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (4·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 10/89g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 6 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/3g | 8/36g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 11/30g | 16% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 5 in 22g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 7/39g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Fort | RUC | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 6/19g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/15g | 130/151g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Sam Day | KF | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 10/18g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Bruce Reville | MID | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 26% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Brandon Starcevich | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/63g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 23/110g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Marshall | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/115g | 0% | — | — |
| – | James Tunstill | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Ty Gallop | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 60 in 19g | 35/10g (1·2·7·3·1·3·3·4·4·7) | 23/13g | 14/11g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' 73' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 36 in 20g | 16/10g (0·0·4·1·5·2·0·1·3·0) | 10/7g | 3/4g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.29 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.50 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 15' 27' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 31 in 21g | 14/10g (1·0·3·2·1·1·2·1·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 91' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 23 in 21g | 10/10g (2·0·2·1·1·1·1·2·0·0) | 5/5g | 2/1g | 72% | — | 🏉 64' 80' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 20 in 22g | 9/10g (0·0·1·1·1·2·0·1·1·2) | 8/5g | 0/0g | 70% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 17 in 20g | 9/10g (1·2·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 6/3g | 0/0g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 11 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Calsher Dear | KF | 9 in 7g | 15/10g (2·3·1·0·3·2·2·0·1·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 9 in 22g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 9 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 6 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 2/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 5 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Conor Nash | MID | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 4 in 20g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 9/12g | 7/5g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Luke Breust | FWD | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 23/15g | 3/3g | 74% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Lewis | KF | 4 in 5g | 10/10g (1·1·1·1·2·0·2·1·1·0) | 11/6g | 2/2g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 5/9g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 5/9g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.83 | 72% | 32 ✗ |
| Will Ashcroft | 26.5 | $1.91 | 62% | 28 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.91 | 65% | 33 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 66% | 22 ✓ |
| Zac Bailey ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.77 | 77% | 25 ✗ |
| Jaspa Fletcher ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 22 ✗ |
| Levi Ashcroft ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.94 | 70% | 19 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 19.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 27 ✗ |

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarman Impey ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.90 | 70% | 20 ✓ |
| Karl Amon ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 66% | 34 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.92 | 65% | 17 ✓ |
| Jai Newcombe ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 66% | 23 ✗ |
| James Worpel ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 22 ✗ |
| Josh Ward | 21.5 | $1.80 | 64% | 16 ✓ |
| James Sicily ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 75% | 19 ✓ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 11 ✓ |
| Jack Ginnivan ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 71% | 23 ✗ |
| Conor Nash | 18.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r24-brisbane-lions-v-hawthorn
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)