AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 79% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Brisbane Lions by 11.5 vs the actual margin of 10 points. Total score prediction of 173 was close to the actual 168, within 5 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
79%
Hawthorn
21%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hawthorn. Hawthorn are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Brisbane Lions counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Hawthorn carry a 74-point ELO rating advantage (1545 vs 1472). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 11.5 points with a combined total of 173.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.72
Winner ✓
Edge
+21.1%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+21.1%
Total Points
Over 169.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | W W W W L | 90.8 |
Hawthorn | W W W L L | 107.2 |
Avg Conceded
77.5
Brisbane Lions
89.0
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
2.5
Brisbane Lions
19.2
Hawthorn
Disposals
353.7
Brisbane Lions
336.2
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
52.9
Brisbane Lions
42.1
Hawthorn
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hawthorn hold the ELO advantage (1545 vs 1472), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.72).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
79%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 173 · Line: +11.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.01
Team Effectiveness
+0.27
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.