AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 79% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Brisbane Lions by 11.5 vs the actual margin of 10 points. Total score prediction of 173 was close to the actual 168 — within 5 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
79%
Hawthorn
21%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hawthorn. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Defensive ELO. Recent form favours Hawthorn with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 11.5 points with a combined total of 173.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.72
Winner ✓
Edge
+21.1%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+21.1%
Total Points
Over 169.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | WWWLL | 86.6 |
Hawthorn | WWWWL | 92.2 |
Avg Conceded
81.4
Brisbane Lions
62.6
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
5.2
Brisbane Lions
29.6
Hawthorn
Disposals
375.2
Brisbane Lions
388.8
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
50.0
Brisbane Lions
50.0
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
79%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 173 · Line: +11.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.01
Team Effectiveness
+0.27
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.