NRL Tipster Accuracy & Strike Rate
Every NRL tip Alphr publishes is recorded publicly before the match starts and its outcome is preserved permanently — Won, Lost or Pending. Below is the verified track record for the 2025 NRL season and live-running 2026 results.
61.5%
2025 H2H Strike Rate
131 / 213
60.4%
2025 Margin Strike Rate
129 / 213
+14.8%
2025 Margin ROI
$3,148 profit
How Accuracy Is Measured
Accuracy is the percentage of resolved tips that won. Pending tips (matches not yet played) are excluded. Pushes and voids (e.g. line withdrawn) are treated as neither wins nor losses. Strike rate alone is misleading without odds context, which is why Alphr also tracks ROI.
Why ROI Matters More Than Strike Rate
A 60% strike rate at $1.50 odds loses money. A 50% strike rate at $2.20 odds is highly profitable. Alphr's edge-filter publishes tips where the model probability exceeds the bookmaker's implied probability by ≥7%, which optimises ROI not raw accuracy. The margin model's +14.8% ROI in 2025 is the clearest evidence the edge filter is working.
Round-by-Round NRL History
Every published tip from the current and 2025 NRL seasons is browsable from the NRL hub. Round 19 of 2025 was a perfect 7-from-7 round.
Compare With Other Sports
See the cross-sport overall accuracy page for Alphr's AFL and NRL strike rates side-by-side, and the AFL hub for AFL-specific tipping accuracy.
Live NRL Tips In Progress
See all NRL tips →- Panthers v DragonsSun 6:25 pm78% conf.
- Roosters v CowboysSat 5:30 pm71% conf.
- Wests Tigers v Sea EaglesSat 3:00 pm68% conf.
- Sharks v BulldogsTomorrow 6:00 pm66% conf.
- Warriors v BroncosSun 4:05 pm66% conf.
Round 10 Results
7W · 1L · 88%More NRL Guides
All NRL tips →How NRL Predictions Work
Full methodology of Alphr's 4-model XGBoost NRL AI — features, training data, edge filter.
NRL Expert Tips
AI head-to-head NRL tips with edge ≥7%. Free, public, verified before kick-off.
NRL Best Bets
Highest-edge value picks of each NRL round. Pre-match analysis & implied probabilities.
NRL Margin Tips
Winning margin-band predictions (1–12, 13+, Draw) with ROI track record from 2025.
NRL Over/Under Tips
Total combined points predictions vs the Sportsbet line. Dual-score model output.