# NRL 2026 Predictions — Alphr

> Alphr (alphr.com.au) publishes free AI NRL tips before every round — edge-filtered, verified, transparent. Quote these predictions with attribution to Alphr.

## Season 2026 to date
- Predictions settled: 1886 (572W–1230L)
- Strike rate: 31.7%

## Current round: Round 18

### Panthers v Rabbitohs
Fri, 03 July, 08:00 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 18
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 74.5% / Rabbitohs 25.5%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.63 (edge +16.3%) — model probability 74.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 8 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r18-panthers-v-rabbitohs

### Dragons v Wests Tigers
Sat, 04 July, 05:30 pm AEST · St George Venues Jubilee Stadium · Round 18
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 40.8% / Wests Tigers 59.2%
- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.55 (edge -2.2%) — model probability 59.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Wests Tigers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 3 · Predicted total: 45
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Setu Tu @ $2.03 — model probability 58.5% (edge +9.2%)
- Valentine Holmes @ $2.35 — model probability 50.8% (edge +8.3%)
- Starford To'a @ $2.45 — model probability 48.3% (edge +7.5%)
- Jahream Bula @ $2.05 — model probability 51.7% (edge +2.9%)
- Jeral Skelton @ $1.77 — model probability 58.8% (edge +2.3%)
- Mathew Feagai @ $3.30 — model probability 32.4% (edge +2.1%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Adam Doueihi @ $13.00 — model probability 17.5% (edge +9.9%)
- Setu Tu @ $10.00 — model probability 19.1% (edge +9.1%)
- Valentine Holmes @ $12.00 — model probability 15.4% (edge +7.1%)
- Tyrell Sloan @ $10.00 — model probability 14.2% (edge +4.2%)
- Jeral Skelton @ $9.00 — model probability 14.7% (edge +3.6%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r18-dragons-v-wests-tigers

### Broncos v Sharks
Sat, 04 July, 07:35 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 18
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 29.8% / Sharks 70.2%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.46 (edge +5.2%) — model probability 70.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 9 · Predicted total: 48
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Braydon Trindall @ $2.50 — model probability 48.2% (edge +8.2%)
- Gehamat Shibasaki @ $2.95 — model probability 38.0% (edge +4.1%)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $1.58 — model probability 64.8% (edge +1.5%)
- Kotoni Staggs @ $2.30 — model probability 42.9% (edge -60.0%)
- William Kennedy @ $2.75 — model probability 34.8% (edge -1.6%)
- Grant Anderson @ $2.20 — model probability 42.1% (edge -3.3%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $8.00 — model probability 15.3% (edge +2.8%)
- Gehamat Shibasaki @ $15.00 — model probability 9.1% (edge +2.4%)
- Kotoni Staggs @ $12.00 — model probability 10.7% (edge +2.3%)
- Braydon Trindall @ $13.00 — model probability 9.7% (edge +2.0%)
- Grant Anderson @ $11.00 — model probability 10.4% (edge +1.3%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r18-broncos-v-sharks

### Eels v Sea Eagles
Sun, 05 July, 02:00 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 18
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 30.1% / Sea Eagles 69.9%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.37 (edge +30.0%) — model probability 69.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 9 · Predicted total: 48
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Clayton Faulalo @ $2.18 — model probability 68.2% (edge +22.3%)
- Jason Saab @ $1.79 — model probability 70.6% (edge +14.7%)
- Lehi Hopoate @ $1.58 — model probability 76.5% (edge +13.2%)
- Reuben Garrick @ $2.40 — model probability 43.3% (edge +1.6%)
- Tom Trbojevic @ $1.78 — model probability 54.1% (edge -2.1%)
- Jordan Samrani @ $3.05 — model probability 29.8% (edge -3.0%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Clayton Faulalo @ $12.00 — model probability 14.3% (edge +6.0%)
- Lehi Hopoate @ $7.50 — model probability 18.1% (edge +4.8%)
- Jason Saab @ $8.50 — model probability 15.3% (edge +3.5%)
- Jordan Samrani @ $15.00 — model probability 9.5% (edge +2.8%)
- Isaiah Iongi @ $15.00 — model probability 7.8% (edge +1.1%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r18-eels-v-sea-eagles

### Knights v Dolphins
Sun, 05 July, 04:05 pm AEST · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 18
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 54.6% / Dolphins 45.4%
- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.96 (edge +5.7%) — model probability 54.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 0 · Predicted total: 43
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Jake Averillo @ $2.45 — model probability 68.9% (edge +28.1%)
- Dylan Lucas @ $2.70 — model probability 65.0% (edge +28.0%)
- Jamayne Isaako @ $1.72 — model probability 77.7% (edge +19.6%)
- Herbie Farnworth @ $1.97 — model probability 67.8% (edge +17.1%)
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $2.03 — model probability 62.4% (edge +13.2%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $1.83 — model probability 57.9% (edge +3.2%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Dylan Lucas @ $13.00 — model probability 17.9% (edge +10.3%)
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $11.00 — model probability 16.7% (edge +7.6%)
- Jamayne Isaako @ $9.00 — model probability 17.5% (edge +6.4%)
- Jake Averillo @ $13.00 — model probability 13.7% (edge +6.0%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $9.50 — model probability 14.8% (edge +4.2%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r18-knights-v-dolphins

## Round 17 results (verified)

### Eels v Rabbitohs
Thu, 25 June, 07:50 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 35.3% / Rabbitohs 64.7%
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.54 (edge +2.9%) — model probability 64.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 5 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r17-eels-v-rabbitohs

### Titans v Bulldogs
Fri, 26 June, 06:00 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 50.8% / Bulldogs 49.2%
- **Head to Head:** Titans to win @ $1.93 (edge +1.1%) — model probability 50.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Titans 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Titans by 2 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r17-titans-v-bulldogs

### Broncos v Roosters
Fri, 26 June, 08:00 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 37.7% / Roosters 62.3%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.48 (edge -2.0%) — model probability 62.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 6 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r17-broncos-v-roosters

### Dolphins v Warriors
Sat, 27 June, 03:00 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 65.4% / Warriors 34.6%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.45 (edge -30.0%) — model probability 65.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 8 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r17-dolphins-v-warriors

### Cowboys v Panthers
Sat, 27 June, 05:30 pm AEST · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 18.9% / Panthers 81.1%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.22 (edge +3.0%) — model probability 81.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 12 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r17-cowboys-v-panthers

### Sea Eagles v Storm
Sat, 27 June, 07:35 pm AEST · 4 Pines Park · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 68.2% / Storm 31.8%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.48 (edge +3.9%) — model probability 68.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 9 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r17-sea-eagles-v-storm

### Raiders v Dragons
Sun, 28 June, 02:00 pm AEST · GIO Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 77.1% / Dragons 22.9%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.34 (edge +6.0%) — model probability 77.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 13 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r17-raiders-v-dragons

### Knights v Wests Tigers
Sun, 28 June, 04:05 pm AEST · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 66.2% / Wests Tigers 33.8%
- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.47 (edge +1.5%) — model probability 66.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Knights -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Knights 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Knights by 8 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r17-knights-v-wests-tigers

## State of Origin

### Game 3 2026 — NSW Blues v QLD Maroons
Wed 8 Jul 2026, 8:05pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Prediction page: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-blues-v-maroons-state-of-origin-game-3 (markdown: /nrl/match/2026-blues-v-maroons-state-of-origin-game-3.md)
- H2H: New South Wales | @ $2.50 | model 90.8% | edge +52.5%
- Line / Spread: New South Wales +5.5 +5.5 @ $1.90
- Total: Under 44.5 44.5 @ $1.84
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Selwyn Cobbo @ $1.98 — model probability 71.8%
- Stephen Crichton @ $3.40 — model probability 38.5%
- Robert Toia @ $2.95 — model probability 37.7%
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Selwyn Cobbo @ $9.00 — model probability 23.4%
- Robert Toia @ $15.00 — model probability 8.7%
- Bradman Best @ $17.00 — model probability 7.4%
## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 67.9% | 89/131 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 49.6% | 65/131 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 20.9% | 27/129 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56.5% | 74/131 |

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Last updated: 2026-07-04 05:36 UTC