# NRL 2026 Predictions — Alphr

> Alphr (alphr.com.au) publishes free AI NRL tips before every round — edge-filtered, verified, transparent. Quote these predictions with attribution to Alphr.

## Current round: Round 23

### Titans v Cowboys
Thu, 06 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 47.4% / Cowboys 52.6%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.59 (edge -7.3%) — model probability 52.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 0 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-titans-v-cowboys

### Warriors v Panthers
Fri, 07 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST · Go Media Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 44.9% / Panthers 55.1%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.53 (edge -7.1%) — model probability 55.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 2 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-warriors-v-panthers

### Roosters v Bulldogs
Fri, 07 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 73.5% / Bulldogs 26.5%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.33 (edge +2.3%) — model probability 73.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 11 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-roosters-v-bulldogs

### Storm v Sea Eagles
Sat, 08 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST · HBF Park · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 36.1% / Sea Eagles 63.9%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.72 (edge +8.6%) — model probability 63.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 6 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-storm-v-sea-eagles

### Dolphins v Broncos
Sat, 08 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 69.5% / Broncos 30.5%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.42 (edge +2.6%) — model probability 69.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 9 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-dolphins-v-broncos

### Rabbitohs v Eels
Sat, 08 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 64.9% / Eels 35.1%
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.37 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 64.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 4 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-rabbitohs-v-eels

### Raiders v Knights
Sun, 09 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · GIO Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 54.5% / Knights 45.5%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.84 (edge +2.4%) — model probability 54.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 1 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-raiders-v-knights

### Dragons v Sharks
Sun, 09 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · St George Venues Jubilee Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 19.8% / Sharks 80.2%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.19 (edge +30.0%) — model probability 80.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 15 · Predicted total: 53
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-dragons-v-sharks

## Round 22 results (verified)

### Cowboys v Roosters
Thu, 30 July, 07:50 pm AEST · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 39.1% / Roosters 60.9%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.52 (edge -1.7%) — model probability 60.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 5 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-cowboys-v-roosters

### Dragons v Dolphins
Fri, 31 July, 06:00 pm AEST · WIN Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 30.1% / Dolphins 69.9%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.21 (edge -8.7%) — model probability 69.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 9 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-dragons-v-dolphins

### Storm v Bulldogs
Fri, 31 July, 08:00 pm AEST · AAMI Park · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 39.0% / Bulldogs 61.0%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.53 (edge -100.0%) — model probability 61.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 5 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-storm-v-bulldogs

### Titans v Warriors
Sat, 01 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 40.2% / Warriors 59.8%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.52 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 59.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 6 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-titans-v-warriors

### Panthers v Raiders
Sat, 01 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST · Glen Willow Oval · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 69.3% / Raiders 30.7%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.33 (edge -2.2%) — model probability 69.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 8 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-panthers-v-raiders

### Broncos v Knights
Sat, 01 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 61.1% / Knights 38.9%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.50 (edge -2.5%) — model probability 61.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Broncos 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 4 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-broncos-v-knights

### Sharks v Rabbitohs
Sun, 02 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · Ocean Protect Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 75.6% / Rabbitohs 24.4%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.28 (edge +1.1%) — model probability 75.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 15 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-sharks-v-rabbitohs

### Wests Tigers v Eels
Sun, 02 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Wests Tigers 39.5% / Eels 60.5%
- **Head to Head:** Eels to win @ $1.41 (edge -7.0%) — model probability 60.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Eels 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Eels by 5 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-wests-tigers-v-eels

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 66.3% | 116/175 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 52% | 91/175 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.3% | 40/172 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56% | 98/175 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 36.3% | 413/1137 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.9% | 42/715 |

_Try-scorer markets publish several selections per game at long odds where only one can land — judge their strike rate against the odds, not against head-to-head._

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Last updated: 2026-08-09 07:55 UTC (latest tip update)