# NRL 2026 Predictions — Alphr

> Alphr (alphr.com.au) publishes free AI NRL tips before every round — edge-filtered, verified, transparent. Quote these predictions with attribution to Alphr.

## Current round: Round 27

### Bulldogs v Broncos
Thu, 03 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Round 27
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 76.0% / Broncos 24.0%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.38 (edge +7.1%) — model probability 76.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 12 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r27-bulldogs-v-broncos

### Titans v Dolphins
Fri, 04 Sept, 06:00 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 27
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 27.6% / Dolphins 72.4%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.24 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 72.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 57.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 11 · Predicted total: 52
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r27-titans-v-dolphins

### Rabbitohs v Roosters
Fri, 04 Sept, 08:00 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 27
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 73.6% / Roosters 26.4%
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.10 (edge -12.8%) — model probability 73.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +21.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 12 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r27-rabbitohs-v-roosters

### Warriors v Sea Eagles
Sat, 05 Sept, 03:00 pm AEST · Go Media Stadium · Round 27
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 72.0% / Sea Eagles 28.0%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.31 (edge -0.6%) — model probability 72.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 10 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r27-warriors-v-sea-eagles

### Cowboys v Raiders
Sat, 05 Sept, 05:30 pm AEST · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 27
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 62.5% / Raiders 37.5%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.53 (edge +0.4%) — model probability 62.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 6 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r27-cowboys-v-raiders

### Sharks v Storm
Sat, 05 Sept, 07:35 pm AEST · Ocean Protect Stadium · Round 27
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 29.4% / Storm 70.6%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.36 (edge +0.7%) — model probability 70.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 12 · Predicted total: 52
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r27-sharks-v-storm

### Dragons v Eels
Sun, 06 Sept, 02:00 pm AEST · WIN Stadium · Round 27
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 45.5% / Eels 54.5%
- **Head to Head:** Eels to win @ $1.70 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 54.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Eels -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Eels 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 55.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Eels by 4 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r27-dragons-v-eels

### Panthers v Wests Tigers
Sun, 06 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 27
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 77.1% / Wests Tigers 22.9%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.10 (edge -9.3%) — model probability 77.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +19.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 13 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r27-panthers-v-wests-tigers

## Round 26 results (verified)

### Broncos v Storm
Thu, 27 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 36.0% / Storm 64.0%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.67 (edge +7.1%) — model probability 64.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 9 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-broncos-v-storm

### Sea Eagles v Dragons
Fri, 28 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST · Brookvale Oval · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 68.9% / Dragons 31.1%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.41 (edge +1.4%) — model probability 68.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 11 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-sea-eagles-v-dragons

### Panthers v Bulldogs
Fri, 28 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 74.7% / Bulldogs 25.3%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.33 (edge +3.0%) — model probability 74.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 12 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-panthers-v-bulldogs

### Titans v Rabbitohs
Sat, 29 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 34.4% / Rabbitohs 65.6%
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.35 (edge -4.8%) — model probability 65.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 8 · Predicted total: 51
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-titans-v-rabbitohs

### Roosters v Dolphins
Sat, 29 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 62.2% / Dolphins 37.8%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.55 (edge +0.7%) — model probability 62.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 7 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-roosters-v-dolphins

### Cowboys v Wests Tigers
Sat, 29 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 77.7% / Wests Tigers 22.3%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.27 (edge +2.8%) — model probability 77.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 12 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-cowboys-v-wests-tigers

### Warriors v Knights
Sun, 30 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · Go Media Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 73.8% / Knights 26.2%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.33 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 73.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 13 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-warriors-v-knights

### Eels v Sharks
Sun, 30 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 38.0% / Sharks 62.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.50 (edge -1.3%) — model probability 62.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 9 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-eels-v-sharks

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 65.2% | 135/207 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 51.2% | 106/207 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23% | 47/204 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 55.1% | 114/207 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 37.1% | 515/1390 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.5% | 48/876 |

_Try-scorer markets publish several selections per game at long odds where only one can land — judge their strike rate against the odds, not against head-to-head._

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Last updated: 2026-09-06 08:03 UTC (latest tip update)