# NRL 2026 Predictions — Alphr

> Alphr (alphr.com.au) publishes free AI NRL tips before every round — edge-filtered, verified, transparent. Quote these predictions with attribution to Alphr.

## Current round: Round 25

### Storm v Panthers
Thu, 20 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST · AAMI Park · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 50.0% / Panthers 50.0%

### Raiders v Broncos
Fri, 21 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST · GIO Stadium · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 50.0% / Broncos 50.0%

### Dolphins v Eels
Fri, 21 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 50.0% / Eels 50.0%

### Knights v Sea Eagles
Sat, 22 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 50.0% / Sea Eagles 50.0%

### Rabbitohs v Warriors
Sat, 22 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 50.0% / Warriors 50.0%

### Dragons v Bulldogs
Sat, 22 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 50.0% / Bulldogs 50.0%

### Titans v Sharks
Sun, 23 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 50.0% / Sharks 50.0%

### Roosters v Wests Tigers
Sun, 23 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 50.0% / Wests Tigers 50.0%

## Round 24 results (verified)

### Panthers v Roosters
Thu, 13 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 60.3% / Roosters 39.7%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.50 (edge -3.1%) — model probability 60.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 5 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-panthers-v-roosters

### Sea Eagles v Dolphins
Fri, 14 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST · 4 Pines Park · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 27.7% / Dolphins 72.3%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.35 (edge +1.7%) — model probability 72.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 13 · Predicted total: 55
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-sea-eagles-v-dolphins

### Bulldogs v Rabbitohs
Fri, 14 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 59.8% / Rabbitohs 40.2%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.57 (edge -80.0%) — model probability 59.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 4 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-bulldogs-v-rabbitohs

### Sharks v Raiders
Sat, 15 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST · Ocean Protect Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 75.7% / Raiders 24.3%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.31 (edge +3.1%) — model probability 75.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 14 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-sharks-v-raiders

### Eels v Cowboys
Sat, 15 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 45.2% / Cowboys 54.8%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.54 (edge -7.0%) — model probability 54.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 2 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-eels-v-cowboys

### Broncos v Warriors
Sat, 15 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 33.3% / Warriors 66.7%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.42 (edge -20.0%) — model probability 66.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 9 · Predicted total: 52
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-broncos-v-warriors

### Knights v Titans
Sun, 16 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 69.9% / Titans 30.1%
- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.22 (edge -8.0%) — model probability 69.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Knights 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Knights by 9 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-knights-v-titans

### Wests Tigers v Dragons
Sun, 16 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Wests Tigers 53.6% / Dragons 46.4%
- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.93 (edge +3.8%) — model probability 53.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wests Tigers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 2 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-wests-tigers-v-dragons

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 65% | 119/183 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 52.5% | 96/183 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.3% | 42/180 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56.3% | 103/183 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 36.2% | 435/1201 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.6% | 42/756 |

_Try-scorer markets publish several selections per game at long odds where only one can land — judge their strike rate against the odds, not against head-to-head._

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Last updated: 2026-08-16 07:53 UTC (latest tip update)