# NRL 2026 Predictions — Alphr

> Alphr (alphr.com.au) publishes free AI NRL tips before every round — edge-filtered, verified, transparent. Quote these predictions with attribution to Alphr.

## Current round: Round 21

### Eels v Panthers
Thu, 23 July, 07:50 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 27.9% / Panthers 72.1%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.16 (edge -9.4%) — model probability 72.1%
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 10 · Predicted total: 49
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Thomas Jenkins @ $1.62 — model probability 86.5% (edge +24.7%)
- Casey McLean @ $2.15 — model probability 52.7% (edge +6.2%)
- Araz Nanva @ $4.60 — model probability 26.9% (edge +5.1%)
- Brian To'o @ $1.64 — model probability 65.0% (edge +4.0%)
- Dylan Edwards @ $2.20 — model probability 46.2% (edge +70.0%)
- Isaiah Iongi @ $3.80 — model probability 24.6% (edge -1.8%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Thomas Jenkins @ $6.50 — model probability 23.0% (edge +7.6%)
- Araz Nanva @ $21.00 — model probability 8.4% (edge +3.6%)
- Isaiah Iongi @ $17.00 — model probability 7.6% (edge +1.7%)
- Jordan Samrani @ $19.00 — model probability 6.0% (edge +80.0%)
- Casey McLean @ $11.00 — model probability 8.6% (edge -50.0%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-eels-v-panthers

### Knights v Roosters
Fri, 24 July, 06:00 pm AEST · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 45.0% / Roosters 55.0%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.71 (edge -70.0%) — model probability 55.0%
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 2 · Predicted total: 44
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Billy Smith @ $2.65 — model probability 75.3% (edge +37.6%)
- Robert Toia @ $2.70 — model probability 69.7% (edge +32.7%)
- Daniel Tupou @ $1.73 — model probability 85.3% (edge +27.5%)
- Mark Nawaqanitawase @ $1.70 — model probability 79.3% (edge +20.5%)
- Dylan Lucas @ $2.90 — model probability 49.3% (edge +14.8%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $2.08 — model probability 55.9% (edge +7.8%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Greg Marzhew @ $11.00 — model probability 18.3% (edge +9.2%)
- Daniel Tupou @ $8.00 — model probability 20.1% (edge +7.6%)
- Dylan Lucas @ $13.00 — model probability 15.2% (edge +7.5%)
- Billy Smith @ $13.00 — model probability 14.7% (edge +7.0%)
- Robert Toia @ $13.00 — model probability 12.6% (edge +4.9%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-knights-v-roosters

### Rabbitohs v Storm
Fri, 24 July, 08:00 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 42.9% / Storm 57.1%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.85 (edge +5.1%) — model probability 57.1%
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Storm by 1 · Predicted total: 44
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Alex Johnston @ $1.67 — model probability 86.5% (edge +26.6%)
- Moses Leo @ $1.88 — model probability 61.0% (edge +7.8%)
- Jahrome Hughes @ $3.25 — model probability 26.5% (edge -4.2%)
- Campbell Graham @ $1.95 — model probability 47.0% (edge -4.3%)
- Latrell Siegwalt @ $3.35 — model probability 22.0% (edge -7.8%)
- Harry Grant @ $3.05 — model probability 20.6% (edge -12.2%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Alex Johnston @ $8.00 — model probability 25.8% (edge +13.3%)
- Moses Leo @ $9.50 — model probability 21.3% (edge +10.8%)
- Jahrome Hughes @ $14.00 — model probability 7.0% (edge -20.0%)
- Campbell Graham @ $10.00 — model probability 8.2% (edge -1.8%)
- Harry Grant @ $14.00 — model probability 5.2% (edge -1.9%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-rabbitohs-v-storm

### Raiders v Wests Tigers
Sat, 25 July, 03:00 pm AEST · GIO Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 73.9% / Wests Tigers 26.1%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.22 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 73.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 12 · Predicted total: 45
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Simi Sasagi @ $2.03 — model probability 48.6% (edge -70.0%)
- Xavier Savage @ $1.54 — model probability 61.0% (edge -3.9%)
- Ethan Strange @ $2.60 — model probability 28.0% (edge -10.4%)
- Junior Tupou @ $2.20 — model probability 33.9% (edge -11.6%)
- Kaeo Weekes @ $1.72 — model probability 46.3% (edge -11.8%)
- Jahream Bula @ $2.75 — model probability 19.0% (edge -17.4%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Xavier Savage @ $8.00 — model probability 13.3% (edge +80.0%)
- Simi Sasagi @ $11.00 — model probability 9.4% (edge +30.0%)
- Junior Tupou @ $12.00 — model probability 8.5% (edge +10.0%)
- Kaeo Weekes @ $9.00 — model probability 8.8% (edge -2.3%)
- Faaletino Tavana @ $13.00 — model probability 5.1% (edge -2.6%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-raiders-v-wests-tigers

### Bulldogs v Warriors
Sat, 25 July, 05:30 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 42.3% / Warriors 57.7%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.53 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 57.7%
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 3 · Predicted total: 45
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Alofiana Khan-Pereira @ $1.65 — model probability 80.8% (edge +20.2%)
- Stephen Crichton @ $3.70 — model probability 35.6% (edge +8.5%)
- Adam Pompey @ $3.15 — model probability 37.1% (edge +5.3%)
- Jethro Rinakama @ $2.15 — model probability 51.1% (edge +4.6%)
- Dallin Watene-Zelezniak @ $1.63 — model probability 65.0% (edge +3.7%)
- Ali Leiataua @ $3.30 — model probability 26.2% (edge -4.1%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Alofiana Khan-Pereira @ $7.50 — model probability 20.5% (edge +7.1%)
- Jethro Rinakama @ $10.00 — model probability 17.1% (edge +7.1%)
- Stephen Crichton @ $15.00 — model probability 10.5% (edge +3.9%)
- Matt Burton @ $14.00 — model probability 7.9% (edge +70.0%)
- Jacob Preston @ $15.00 — model probability 6.3% (edge -40.0%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-bulldogs-v-warriors

### Cowboys v Broncos
Sat, 25 July, 07:35 pm AEST · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 46.7% / Broncos 53.3%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.72 (edge -2.1%) — model probability 53.3%
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Broncos 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 2 · Predicted total: 43
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Jeremiah Nanai @ $2.70 — model probability 52.5% (edge +15.5%)
- Tom Chester @ $3.20 — model probability 39.8% (edge +8.6%)
- Braidon Burns @ $1.83 — model probability 62.5% (edge +7.9%)
- Scott Drinkwater @ $2.50 — model probability 35.1% (edge -4.9%)
- Josiah Karapani @ $1.78 — model probability 50.3% (edge -5.9%)
- Kotoni Staggs @ $1.98 — model probability 41.6% (edge -8.9%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Braidon Burns @ $9.50 — model probability 20.3% (edge +9.7%)
- Jeremiah Nanai @ $13.00 — model probability 15.4% (edge +7.7%)
- Scott Drinkwater @ $13.00 — model probability 8.9% (edge +1.2%)
- Josiah Karapani @ $9.00 — model probability 11.1%
- Deine Mariner @ $10.00 — model probability 9.3% (edge -70.0%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-cowboys-v-broncos

### Dragons v Titans
Sun, 26 July, 02:00 pm AEST · St George Venues Jubilee Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 55.5% / Titans 44.5%
- **Head to Head:** Dragons to win @ $1.91 (edge +5.4%) — model probability 55.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons -0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Dragons 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 1 · Predicted total: 44
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Phillip Sami @ $2.02 — model probability 80.0% (edge +30.5%)
- Jojo Fifita @ $2.70 — model probability 62.3% (edge +25.2%)
- Dean Ieremia @ $2.25 — model probability 62.2% (edge +17.7%)
- Valentine Holmes @ $2.35 — model probability 60.3% (edge +17.7%)
- Jayden Campbell @ $2.80 — model probability 47.2% (edge +11.5%)
- Tyrell Sloan @ $1.85 — model probability 62.0% (edge +8.0%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Phillip Sami @ $10.00 — model probability 22.2% (edge +12.2%)
- Valentine Holmes @ $11.00 — model probability 19.4% (edge +10.3%)
- Tyrell Sloan @ $9.00 — model probability 20.3% (edge +9.2%)
- Jojo Fifita @ $13.00 — model probability 13.4% (edge +5.7%)
- Dean Ieremia @ $11.00 — model probability 13.4% (edge +4.3%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-dragons-v-titans

### Sea Eagles v Sharks
Sun, 26 July, 04:05 pm AEST · 4 Pines Park · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 44.9% / Sharks 55.1%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.63 (edge -3.2%) — model probability 55.1%
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 8 · Predicted total: 50
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Lehi Hopoate @ $2.80 — model probability 71.2% (edge +35.5%)
- Jason Saab @ $1.94 — model probability 77.7% (edge +26.2%)
- Haumole Olakau'atu @ $2.85 — model probability 61.0% (edge +25.9%)
- Sione Katoa @ $1.87 — model probability 73.5% (edge +20.0%)
- KL Iro @ $2.50 — model probability 52.6% (edge +12.6%)
- Reuben Garrick @ $2.80 — model probability 46.0% (edge +10.3%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Jason Saab @ $10.00 — model probability 22.5% (edge +12.5%)
- Haumole Olakau'atu @ $13.00 — model probability 14.1% (edge +6.4%)
- Sione Katoa @ $9.00 — model probability 17.4% (edge +6.3%)
- KL Iro @ $13.00 — model probability 9.8% (edge +2.1%)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $10.00 — model probability 11.9% (edge +1.9%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-sea-eagles-v-sharks

## Round 20 results (verified)

### Panthers v Broncos
Thu, 16 July, 07:50 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 75.8% / Broncos 24.2%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.20 (edge -3.5%) — model probability 75.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 11 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r20-panthers-v-broncos

### Sharks v Knights
Fri, 17 July, 06:00 pm AEST · Ocean Protect Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 63.1% / Knights 36.9%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.58 (edge +2.9%) — model probability 63.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 6 · Predicted total: 40
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r20-sharks-v-knights

### Roosters v Storm
Fri, 17 July, 08:00 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 69.2% / Storm 30.8%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.29 (edge -4.6%) — model probability 69.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 11 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r20-roosters-v-storm

### Raiders v Rabbitohs
Sat, 18 July, 03:00 pm AEST · GIO Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 54.6% / Rabbitohs 45.4%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.82 (edge +2.0%) — model probability 54.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 3 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r20-raiders-v-rabbitohs

### Warriors v Dragons
Sat, 18 July, 05:35 pm AEST · Go Media Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 75.3% / Dragons 24.7%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.18 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 75.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 13 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r20-warriors-v-dragons

### Bulldogs v Wests Tigers
Sat, 18 July, 07:35 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 61.1% / Wests Tigers 38.9%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.50 (edge -2.3%) — model probability 61.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 5 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r20-bulldogs-v-wests-tigers

### Titans v Sea Eagles
Sun, 19 July, 02:00 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 40.2% / Sea Eagles 59.8%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.58 (edge -40.0%) — model probability 59.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 5 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r20-titans-v-sea-eagles

### Dolphins v Cowboys
Sun, 19 July, 04:05 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 56.8% / Cowboys 43.2%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.62 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 56.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 6 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r20-dolphins-v-cowboys

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 66.9% | 101/151 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 50.3% | 76/151 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 21.6% | 32/148 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 57.6% | 87/151 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 36.9% | 349/945 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.5% | 33/595 |

_Try-scorer markets publish several selections per game at long odds where only one can land — judge their strike rate against the odds, not against head-to-head._

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Last updated: 2026-07-21 08:59 UTC (latest tip update)