# NRL 2026 Predictions — Alphr

> Alphr (alphr.com.au) publishes free AI NRL tips before every round — edge-filtered, verified, transparent. Quote these predictions with attribution to Alphr.

## Current round: Grand Final

### Roosters v Knights
Sun, 04 Oct, 07:30 pm AEDT · Accor Stadium · Grand Final
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 69.4% / Knights 30.6%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.45 (edge +3.5%) — model probability 69.4%
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 8 · Predicted total: 41
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Dominic Young @ $2.40 — model probability 64.7% (edge +23.0%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $2.45 — model probability 60.4% (edge +19.6%)
- Robert Toia @ $2.55 — model probability 58.0% (edge +18.8%)
- Billy Smith @ $3.20 — model probability 47.2% (edge +15.9%)
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $3.25 — model probability 41.4% (edge +10.6%)
- James Tedesco @ $2.65 — model probability 45.4% (edge +7.7%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Dominic Young @ $11.00 — model probability 8.1% (edge -1.0%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $12.00 — model probability 7.2% (edge -1.1%)
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $14.00 — model probability 4.2% (edge -3.0%)
- Billy Smith @ $14.00 — model probability 4.1% (edge -3.1%)
- Robert Toia @ $11.00 — model probability 5.5% (edge -3.5%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-gf-roosters-v-knights

## Preliminary Finals results (verified)

### Dolphins v Roosters
Fri, 25 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Preliminary Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 62.4% / Roosters 37.6%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.63 (edge +4.2%) — model probability 62.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 5 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-pf-dolphins-v-roosters

### Panthers v Knights
Sun, 27 Sept, 04:00 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Preliminary Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 75.1% / Knights 24.9%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.29 (edge +1.2%) — model probability 75.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 13 · Predicted total: 37
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-pf-panthers-v-knights

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.2% | 138/215 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 50.2% | 108/215 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.1% | 49/212 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 55.8% | 120/215 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 37.1% | 540/1454 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.2% | 48/916 |

_Try-scorer markets publish several selections per game at long odds where only one can land — judge their strike rate against the odds, not against head-to-head._

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Last updated: 2026-09-29 22:39 UTC (latest tip update)