Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
93%
Melbourne
7%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. Melbourne are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors — including Forward Line ELO, Defensive ELO and Scoring Form — but Collingwood counter with ELO Difference and Midfield ELO which tips the scales. Collingwood carry a 281-point ELO rating advantage (1620 vs 1339). The margin model predicts Collingwood by 27.6 points with a combined total of 172.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.27
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.2%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -23.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.2%
Total Points
Over 164.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | WLLLL | 67.6 |
Melbourne | WLLLL | 90.8 |
Avg Conceded
79.4
Collingwood
85.4
Melbourne
Avg Margin
-11.8
Collingwood
5.4
Melbourne
Disposals
347.0
Collingwood
369.0
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Collingwood
50.0
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Collingwood predicted to win by 28 points
Predicted total: 172 · Line: +27.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.45
Team Effectiveness
+0.06
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.