# Collingwood v Melbourne — AFL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 82 – 76 Melbourne

_Collingwood hold off a gallant Melbourne._

Half time: 46 – 33 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 93% / Melbourne 7% · MCG · Fri, 22 Aug, 07:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Lachie Schultz (5' ×2 1st), Brayden Maynard (6'), Jamie Elliott (45' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jordan de Goey (48' Tipped ⚡), Steele Sidebottom (54'), Jack Crisp (86'), Ned Long (74'), Daniel McStay (85') · Melbourne: Harry Petty (8'), Kysaiah Pickett (17' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jacob van Rooyen (28' Tipped ⚡), Bayley Fritsch (37' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jake Melksham (42' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Harvey Langford (75'), Christian Petracca (65')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 93% | Won |
| Melbourne | 7% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 27.6 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs Melbourne Demons Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Collingwood 82–76 Melbourne in AFL Round 24 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Melbourne wanted the footy in their hands as often as possible. Collingwood wanted it in the right hands. That contrast defined the afternoon at the MCG, and it explains how Collingwood walked away 82-76 winners despite getting beaten in almost every count that measures raw output.

The Demons piled up 396 disposals to Collingwood's 347, won contested possession 134 to 107 and clearances 38 to 26. Any other day that gap wins you the game comfortably. But Collingwood used the footy better when it mattered, hitting targets at 75.5% efficiency to Melbourne's 72.3%, and turned 19 marks inside forward 50 into scoreboard pressure against Melbourne's 10. Collingwood also won the tackle count 49 to 40 and picked off 68 intercepts to Melbourne's 58. Volume against precision, and precision got there in the end.

The scoreboard tells a story of two teams trading momentum rather than one side dominating from the outset. Collingwood led 19-18 at quarter time and stretched that out to 46-33 by half time, doing the bulk of their scoring in the second term. Then Melbourne flipped it. The Demons outscored Collingwood 32-9 in the third quarter, turning a 13-point deficit into a 10-point lead, 65-55, at the last change. It was the kind of quarter that looked like it might decide the whole contest.

Instead Collingwood produced the bigger reply. They outscored Melbourne 27-11 in the final term to run out 82-76 winners, a six-point margin that undersells how much the game swung across four quarters. Collingwood's efficiency and forward-line marking numbers held up when it counted most, in that last-quarter push.

The underlying numbers back up the pre-match tip that Collingwood held stronger positional ratings across the ground: 1091 to 1042 in the forward line, 1087 to 966 in defence and 1033 to 992 in the ruck, with the midfield close at 1027 to 1018. Despite getting outmuscled at the coalface on the day, Collingwood's structural advantages, especially in defence and up forward, showed up where they needed to.

Form lines going in also favoured Collingwood. They arrived with three wins from their last five to Melbourne's two, an average score of 91.9 points compared to Melbourne's 83.5, and they'd been conceding just 70.2 points a game against Melbourne's 87.9 against. Collingwood were also averaging more disposals and more inside 50s across that stretch, so grinding out a contest like this one, even from behind at three-quarter time, fit the pattern.

Alphr's model had Collingwood at 93% to win and got the result right, but it whiffed on the margin, tipping Collingwood by 27.6 points in a game that finished by six. That's a 21.6-point miss, enough to drop the model to 2 from 3 for the match.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 19 | 27 | 9 | 27 | 82 |
| Melbourne | 18 | 15 | 32 | 11 | 76 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 347 | Disposals | **396** |
| 107 | Contested poss. | **134** |
| 26 | Clearances | **38** |
| 52 | Inside 50s | **55** |
| **123** | Marks | 110 |
| **19** | Marks inside 50 | 10 |
| **49** | Tackles | 40 |
| **29** | Hit-outs | 27 |
| **68** | Intercepts | 58 |
| **75.5%** | Disposal eff. | 72.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 93% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 27.6 but the actual margin was 6 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. Collingwood covered the 23.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.27 (edge +14.2%) — model probability 93.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -23.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 28 · Predicted total: 172

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 210 · 142 | 148 · 191 |
| Goal Assists | 5/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 111/g | 97/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.5/g | 19.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.3/g | 7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 69.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 47 · 65 | 91 · 57 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposals | 125/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 20/g | 22.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.4% | 68.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 18 · 18 | 21 · 41 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 133/g |
| Inside 50s | 13/g | 11/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.9% | 81.3% |

**Who scores on Melbourne** — Defenders 1.5/g (lg 1.25) +20% · Rucks 0.61/g (lg 0.51) +20% · Midfielders 2.27/g (lg 2.39) -5%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Rucks 0.49/g (lg 0.51) -4% · Defenders 1.15/g (lg 1.25) -8% · Key Forwards 3.31/g (lg 3.63) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 50 in 22g | 17/10g (1·2·1·4·3·2·1·1·0·2) | 17/13g | 212/132g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' 77' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 35 in 19g | 17/10g (4·1·1·2·2·2·2·1·2·0) | 18/10g | 153/91g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 30 in 20g | 16/10g (1·1·2·2·2·2·2·1·1·2) | 30/13g | 55/28g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 81% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 18 in 17g | 10/10g (2·2·0·4·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 10/14g | 42/38g | 68% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 16 in 22g | 10/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·3·1·0·1) | 5/6g | 33/57g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 11 in 20g | 7/10g (2·1·0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0) | 11/19g | 104/180g | 28% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 10 in 13g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 7/7g | 33/29g | 66% | — | 🏉 5' 81' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 8 in 22g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/19g | 50/152g | 40% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 8 in 20g | 7/10g (0·2·2·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/11g | 28/56g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 7 in 8g | 10/10g (1·2·0·2·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 7/11g | 120/112g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.42 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 6 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 40/55g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 7/28g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 6 in 22g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 8/9g | 38/68g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 6 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/21g | 25% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 4 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 14/137g | 12% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/28g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 30/85g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/18g | 80/182g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/26g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 39/111g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/74g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 56/162g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Roan Steele | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 38 in 19g | 20/10g (3·3·3·2·1·5·1·0·1·1) | 11/9g | 101/62g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 73' |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 33 in 21g | 22/10g (3·2·2·1·3·2·3·4·2·0) | 17/12g | 136/83g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' 77' 82' |
| – | Jake Melksham | FWD | 31 in 18g | 21/10g (1·0·5·4·5·1·2·1·2·0) | 11/15g | 96/89g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 42' 89' |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 19 in 18g | 12/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·3·2·2) | 2/7g | 27/51g | 56% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 18 in 22g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·2·1·1·1) | 1/7g | 38/46g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 17 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 11/14g | 96/106g | 60% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Jacob van Rooyen | KF | 15 in 15g | 11/10g (0·0·2·2·1·1·0·2·1·2) | 5/5g | 46/35g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 13 in 21g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3·1·1) | 0/1g | 8/11g | 39% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 10 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 24/58g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 8 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/13g | 27/72g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 8 in 17g | 4/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/9g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Turner | DEF | 7 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 12/19g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 6 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 7/17g | 62/124g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/14g | 24/106g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jack Viney | MID | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/16g | 34/120g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 5/63g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jai Culley | MID | 3 in 3g | 9/10g (0·4·1·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/44g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Blake Howes | DEF | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/16g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 16/102g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom McDonald | DEF | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/16g | 78/131g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/37g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Steven May | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 6/69g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 31.5 | $1.70 | 57% | 27 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 19 ✓ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 23.5 | $1.95 | 50% | 21 ✓ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 20.5 | $1.99 | 48% | 16 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 20.5 | $1.88 | 51% | 18 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 80% | 17 ✓ |
| Dan Houston ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 66% | 22 ✗ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 17.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 15 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron | 16.5 | $1.92 | 47% | 14 ✓ |

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | 27.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 30 ✗ |
| Christian Petracca ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 28 ✗ |
| Christian Salem ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.81 | 70% | 27 ✗ |
| Jake Bowey ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.90 | 65% | 24 ✗ |
| Jack Viney | 22.5 | $1.88 | 52% | 22 ✓ |
| Trent Rivers | 21.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 22 ✗ |
| Max Gawn ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $2.00 | 64% | 23 ✗ |
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 16 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)