Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
93%
Melbourne
7%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Collingwood carry a 25-point ELO rating advantage (1532 vs 1507). Recent form favours Collingwood with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 27.6 points with a combined total of 172.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.27
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.2%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -23.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.2%
Total Points
Over 164.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | W W W W L | 91.9 |
Melbourne | W W L L L | 83.5 |
Avg Conceded
70.2
Collingwood
87.9
Melbourne
Avg Margin
3.4
Collingwood
-5.0
Melbourne
Disposals
375.7
Collingwood
340.8
Melbourne
Inside 50s
52.4
Collingwood
48.4
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Collingwood predicted to win by 28 points
Predicted total: 172 · Line: +27.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.45
Team Effectiveness
+0.06
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.