AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 89% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 29.0 but the actual margin was 11 points. GWS GIANTS trailed 42–43 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 104–93. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
89%
St Kilda
11%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 89%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Scoring Form. GWS GIANTS carry a 290-point ELO rating advantage (1683 vs 1393). The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 29.0 points with a combined total of 184.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.18
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.7%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS -30.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.7%
Total Points
Over 173.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | WWWWL | 98.8 |
St Kilda | WWWWL | 77.8 |
Avg Conceded
80.2
GWS GIANTS
79.8
St Kilda
Avg Margin
18.6
GWS GIANTS
-2.0
St Kilda
Disposals
347.2
GWS GIANTS
353.2
St Kilda
Inside 50s
50.0
GWS GIANTS
50.0
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
89%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 29 points
Predicted total: 184 · Line: +29.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.01
Team Effectiveness
+0.29
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.