AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 89% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 29.0 but the actual margin was 11 points. GWS GIANTS trailed 42–43 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 104–93. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
89%
St Kilda
11%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 89%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 29.0 points with a combined total of 184.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.18
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.7%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS -30.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.7%
Total Points
Over 173.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | W W W W L | 94.9 |
St Kilda | W L L L L | 108.3 |
Avg Conceded
86.9
GWS GIANTS
99.6
St Kilda
Avg Margin
2.0
GWS GIANTS
15.9
St Kilda
Disposals
361.0
GWS GIANTS
349.1
St Kilda
Inside 50s
44.2
GWS GIANTS
51.8
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
89%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 29 points
Predicted total: 184 · Line: +29.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.01
Team Effectiveness
+0.29
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.