# GWS GIANTS v St Kilda — AFL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 104 – 93 St Kilda

_GWS GIANTS fight back to dwarf St Kilda._

Half time: 42 – 43 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 89% / St Kilda 11% · ENGIE Stadium · Sun, 24 Aug, 12:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Toby Greene (4' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Harvey Thomas (6'), Max Gruzewski (18' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Harry Rowston (44'), Toby Bedford (74'), Darcy Jones (87' ×2), Final quarter (35m 15s)Toby Greene (70'), Callum Brown (81' Tipped ⚡), Tom Green (90') · St Kilda: Mattaes Phillipou (20' ×2), Lance Collard (22' ×2), Darcy Wilson (40' ×5), Cooper Sharman (51' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Isaac Keeler (97' Tipped ⚡), Max Hall (76' ×2)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 89% | Won |
| St Kilda | 11% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 29.0 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

GWS GIANTS 104–93 St Kilda in AFL Round 24 at ENGIE Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

GWS Giants trailed by a point at the last change, 68 to 67, and looked for a moment like they might cop the same fate that's dogged them all season, a tight one slipping away. Instead they piled on 37 in the final quarter to St Kilda's 25 and ran out winners 104 to 93 at ENGIE Stadium. Whatever happened in that last twenty minutes, it was decisive.

The scoreboard had been a genuine arm wrestle up to that point. Giants up 27 to 17 at quarter time, Saints hitting back to lead 43 to 42 at the half, then edging in front again by three-quarter time. Three changes of momentum before the Giants finally put it to bed. That's not a side that got run off the park early, it's one that got outlasted.

The engine room is where this was won. GWS dominated hit-outs 56 to 35, a gap that lines up with a ruck rating of 1041 against St Kilda's 987 coming in, and it fed through to clearances, 45 to 40. More first use of the footy, more second efforts, more of the ball in general: 362 disposals to 321. St Kilda actually used theirs better, 77.3% efficiency to 73.7%, and still finished with fewer looks inside 50, 46 to 50 in their favour but not enough to offset the volume gap in marks inside 50, 15 to 13 the Giants' way.

St Kilda's forward line carried a stronger rating into this one, 1033 to 964, and the inside 50 count backs that up, they generated more entries. But generating entries and converting them are different jobs, and with the Giants winning the intercept count 52 to 49 and out-tackling them 66 to 61, a lot of that supply came back with interest. Efficient with it, undone by whoever was doing the taking.

Form lines told a mixed story going in. St Kilda arrived scoring at 108.33 a game across their last five against the Giants' 94.93, and with a much healthier average margin, 15.9 to 2.02. On paper that's the better side. But the win column read the opposite way, Giants with 3.85 wins from five to St Kilda's 1.14, and history tends to matter more than points differential when it's this close.

Alphr's model had this one right where it counted, GWS Giants favourites at 89% with ELO ratings of 1520 to 1507, and the pick landed. The margin read was the miss, tipped at 29 points on a combined total of 184. Reality delivered an 11-point win and a shootout worth 197. Three quarters of tight, tense footy and a final term blowout will do that to a projection.

Wins and misses, all of it. The head-to-head call held up, the margin didn't, and the game itself needed the best part of an hour to find its shape before the Giants finally pulled clear.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 27 | 15 | 25 | 37 | 104 |
| St Kilda | 17 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 93 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| **362** | Disposals | 321 |
| **138** | Contested poss. | 125 |
| **45** | Clearances | 40 |
| 46 | Inside 50s | **50** |
| **87** | Marks | 78 |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 13 |
| **66** | Tackles | 61 |
| **56** | Hit-outs | 35 |
| **52** | Intercepts | 49 |
| 73.7% | Disposal eff. | **77.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 89% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 29.0 but the actual margin was 11 points. GWS GIANTS trailed 42–43 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 104–93. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.18 (edge +4.7%) — model probability 89.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -30.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 29 · Predicted total: 184

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 238 · 155 | 154 · 189 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposals | 97/g | 68/g |
| Inside 50s | 19/g | 11.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10/g | 6.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.8% | 69.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 53 · 66 | 70 · 79 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposals | 136/g | 169/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.4/g | 24/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.1/g | 4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.1% | 69.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 24 | 30 · 18 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 130/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.5/g | 12.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.7% | 77.8% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.46/g (lg 2.39) +3% · Forwards 4.17/g (lg 4.42) -6% · Key Forwards 3.38/g (lg 3.63) -7%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.51) +2% · Defenders 1.22/g (lg 1.24) -2% · Forwards 4.14/g (lg 4.42) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at ENGIE Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 44 in 22g | 29/10g (1·5·3·2·6·1·3·2·4·2) | 4/3g | 26/18g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 92% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 37 in 20g | 19/10g (3·1·0·2·3·2·2·1·3·2) | 23/16g | 143/85g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 84' 80' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 24 in 20g | 14/10g (0·3·2·1·1·2·0·0·5·0) | 2/3g | 29/17g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 81' |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 22 in 18g | 11/10g (2·0·2·1·1·2·0·2·0·1) | 6/5g | 31/26g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 72% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 16 in 21g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 10/12g | 62% | — | 🏉 87' 101' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 14 in 21g | 9/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·2·1·1·2) | 3/5g | 13/22g | 46% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 12 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 21/36g | 42% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 8 in 21g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 6/24g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 7 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 5/11g | 38% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Max Gruzewski | KF | 7 in 6g | 10/10g (2·0·0·1·2·0·0·2·0·3) | 0/0g | 4/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 18' 38' 94' |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 5/21g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Harry Rowston | MID | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·4) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 15% | — | 🏉 44' |
| – | Stephen Coniglio | FWD | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/14g | 34/75g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/10g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 3 in 18g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/23g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 10/10g | 59/61g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/34g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Angwin | MID | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/39g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/34g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 30/89g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Leek Aleer | RUC | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 46 in 22g | 17/10g (1·0·1·2·0·2·4·2·2·3) | 15/9g | 6/5g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 77% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 32 in 20g | 15/10g (1·1·0·1·2·2·2·1·2·3) | 5/3g | 0/0g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' 86' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 22 in 20g | 10/10g (1·3·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·2) | 3/8g | 0/3g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 21 in 22g | 10/10g (0·1·1·3·3·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 63% | — | 🏉 76' 92' |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 17 in 22g | 10/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·4·0·1·1) | 4/5g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 10 in 17g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 46% | — | 🏉 40' 73' 99' 73' 78' |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 10 in 22g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 5/8g | 0/2g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Keeler | KF | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·0·3·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.67 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 97' |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 9 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/14g | 3/4g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 6 in 21g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 2/5g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lance Collard | DEF | 6 in 11g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | 🏉 22' 54' |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 2/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Mattaes Phillipou | FWD | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 42% | — | 🏉 20' 48' |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Alix Tauru | DEF | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 2/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Jones | MID | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.95 | 74% | 31 ✗ |
| Tom Green ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 33 ✗ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 32 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan | 27.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 26 ✓ |
| Stephen Coniglio ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.95 | 71% | 7 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $2.00 | 68% | 21 ✗ |
| Connor Idun | 17.5 | $1.90 | 56% | 14 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 16.5 | $1.88 | 57% | 17 ✗ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.88 | 64% | 23 ✓ |
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.98 | 71% | 34 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 74% | 23 ✓ |
| Jack Steele | 21.5 | $1.81 | 65% | 18 ✓ |
| Rowan Marshall ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 67% | 21 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill | 19.5 | $1.87 | 51% | 16 ✓ |
| Hugo Garcia ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 12 ✓ |
| Zak Jones ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.89 | 71% | 19 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)