# North Melbourne v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: North Melbourne 100 – 113 Adelaide Crows

_Adelaide Crows pick apart North Melbourne._

Half time: 48 – 59 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: North Melbourne 5% / Adelaide Crows 95% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 23 Aug, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — North Melbourne: Paul Curtis (9' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Bailey Scott (15'), Dylan Stephens (23' ×2), Cooper Trembath (51' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Zac Banch (62'), Luke Parker (78'), Tom Powell (80'), Luke Davies-Uniacke (82'), Cooper Harvey (84'), Jack Darling (85' Tipped ⚡) · Adelaide Crows: Ben Keays (1' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Riley Thilthorpe (7' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Fogarty (18' Tipped ⚡), Rory Laird (41'), Billy Dowling (43' ×2), Taylor Walker (60' Tipped ⚡), James Peatling (72' ×3), Zac Taylor (90'), Alex Neal-Bullen (93'), Brodie Smith (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 95% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 38.6 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

North Melbourne 100–113 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 24 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows didn't run away with this one in one big rush. They built it, brick by brick, and the third quarter was where the wall went up. Adelaide scored 33 points to North Melbourne's 19 in that term, turning an 11-point half-time lead into a 25-point buffer by the last change. That's the twenty minutes that decided the contest at Marvel Stadium, even if North Melbourne made things look respectable again before the final siren.

Go back to the start and it was tight enough. Adelaide led by six at quarter time, 27 to 21, then stretched that to 11 by half time, 59 to 48. Nothing alarming for North Melbourne at that point. Then the third quarter happened, and the margin nearly doubled inside twenty minutes.

North Melbourne did find something in the last quarter, outscoring Adelaide 33 to 21 to close the gap back to 13 points at the final siren. It made for a better look on the scoreboard, Adelaide 113, North Melbourne 100, but it was a fourth-quarter rally against a game that had already been decided in the third.

The disposal count says North Melbourne were never short of it. They finished with 374 disposals to Adelaide's 311, won clearances 48 to 27, and had 142 contested possessions to Adelaide's 113. By raw volume, this was North's game to control. And in the midfield battle, they did.

The problem was what they did with it. Adelaide hit targets at 76.3 per cent, North Melbourne managed only 69.9. Adelaide also made their forward-half entries count, hauling in 13 marks inside 50 to North's nine, and read the ball better at the other end, picking off 57 intercepts to North's 48. More footy for North Melbourne, cleaner footy for Adelaide.

That gap lines up with what the numbers said before a ball was bounced. Adelaide rated stronger everywhere on paper: midfield 1058 to 958, forwards 1043 to 923, defence 989 to 913, ruck 1071 to 966.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne | 21 | 27 | 19 | 33 | 100 |
| Adelaide Crows | 27 | 32 | 33 | 21 | 113 |

**Key Match Stats**

| North Melbourne | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| **374** | Disposals | 311 |
| **142** | Contested poss. | 113 |
| **48** | Clearances | 27 |
| **52** | Inside 50s | 48 |
| **94** | Marks | 81 |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **13** |
| 61 | Tackles | **62** |
| **36** | Hit-outs | 33 |
| 48 | Intercepts | **57** |
| 69.9% | Disposal eff. | **76.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 95% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 38.6 but the actual margin was 13 points. The game's 213 points came in 68 points higher than the predicted 145. The model went 2/3 on this match. Adelaide Crows covered the 34.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.18 (edge +9.8%) — model probability 94.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +34.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 39 · Predicted total: 145

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | North Melbourne | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 145 · 234 | 225 · 147 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 5/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 108/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.4/g | 19.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.2/g | 8.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.4% | 66% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | North Melbourne | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 43 · 70 | 88 · 53 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposals | 138/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.5/g | 24.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.4% | 67.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | North Melbourne | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 64 · 26 | 9 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 2.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 13/g | 10.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.5% | 79.1% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.32/g (lg 1.25) +6% · Midfielders 2.32/g (lg 2.39) -3% · Forwards 4.15/g (lg 4.42) -6%
**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.69/g (lg 0.51) +35% · Key Forwards 4.75/g (lg 3.63) +31% · Forwards 5.72/g (lg 4.42) +29%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 35 in 18g | 16/10g (3·0·2·1·1·2·0·2·0·5) | 5/5g | 46/34g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' 64' 91' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 23 in 21g | 12/10g (0·1·1·0·3·1·1·1·3·1) | 36/19g | 60/40g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 85' |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 12 in 22g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 5/17g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 12 in 20g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/10g | 31/78g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 11 in 22g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 3/9g | 41% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 11 in 21g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 14/16g | 34/40g | 36% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Cooper Harvey | DEF | 9 in 6g | 10/9g (1·0·0·1·4·2·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 56% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 8 in 22g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/3g | 10/29g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 7 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/9g | 22/55g | 34% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Cooper Trembath | KF | 6 in 2g | 6/2g (3·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' 88' 99' |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 5 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 14/41g | 22% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 0/21g | 12% | — | 🏉 23' 58' |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/16g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 12/31g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Geordie Payne | FWD | 3 in 2g | 3/2g (1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Scott | MID | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 16/46g | 18% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Griffin Logue | DEF | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 2/23g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Aidan Corr | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/43g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 30/97g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/21g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Toby Pink | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/13g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Zac Banch | FWD | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 62' |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 52 in 22g | 25/10g (1·0·5·0·6·2·3·4·3·1) | 7/4g | 11/6g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 7' 76' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 39 in 21g | 11/10g (0·0·1·2·3·0·1·1·1·2) | 18/7g | 19/9g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 36 in 20g | 18/10g (1·1·0·2·2·2·2·3·3·2) | 42/15g | 52/21g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 60' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 32 in 22g | 12/10g (3·2·0·2·0·1·3·0·1·0) | 10/9g | 21/17g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 1' 13' 85' |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 17 in 22g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·1·2·1·0) | 4/8g | 13/16g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 57% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 16 in 22g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·1·1·0·0) | 8/10g | 11/21g | 40% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 13 in 22g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 0/5g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 11 in 22g | 7/10g (0·1·2·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 1/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 8 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 3/2g | 4/6g | 34% | — | 🏉 72' 75' 87' |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 7 in 21g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 2/10g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/9g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 1/13g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Sid Draper | MID | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 21% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Brodie Smith | DEF | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 9/24g | 14% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/8g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Billy Dowling | MID | no games | 4/9g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 44% | — | 🏉 43' 47' |
| – | Hugh Bond | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 3/27g | 4% | — | 🏉 41' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.81 | 65% | 32 ✗ |
| Colby McKercher ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.85 | 77% | 23 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.75 | 74% | 31 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 24.5 | $1.86 | 61% | 22 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 23.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 27 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 20.5 | $1.80 | 58% | 33 ✗ |
| Tom Powell | 19.5 | $1.89 | 50% | 16 ✓ |
| George Wardlaw ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.95 | 79% | 18 ✓ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 23 ✓ |
| Rory Laird | 24.5 | $1.95 | 52% | 23 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 86% | 19 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $2.00 | 70% | 14 ✓ |
| Josh Worrell | 20.5 | $1.90 | 61% | 19 ✓ |
| Wayne Milera | 18.5 | $1.94 | 56% | 18 ✓ |
| Alex Neal-Bullen ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 9 ✓ |
| Mark Keane | 16.5 | $1.91 | 59% | 11 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)