AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 95% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 38.6 but the actual margin was 13 points. The game's 213 points came in 68 points higher than the predicted 145. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
5%
Adelaide Crows
95%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 95%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Adelaide Crows carry a 71-point ELO rating advantage (1513 vs 1442). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 38.6 points with a combined total of 145.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.18
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.8%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows +34.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.8%
Total Points
Under 181.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | W W L L L | 92.3 |
Adelaide Crows | W W W L L | 71.8 |
Avg Conceded
70.9
North Melbourne
87.6
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
17.9
North Melbourne
24.2
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
335.1
North Melbourne
344.7
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
47.0
North Melbourne
55.8
Adelaide Crows
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
95%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 39 points
Predicted total: 145 · Line: -38.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.35
Team Effectiveness
+0.14
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.