NRL Over/Under Tips 2026
Over/under (totals) tips predict whether the combined points scored by both teams will be over or under the bookmaker's line. Alphr's dual-score AI model forecasts home and away scores independently and combines them into a total — then publishes a free tip whenever the model edge exceeds 7% versus the Sportsbet line.
How NRL Totals Tips Are Generated
Two independent XGBoost regression models predict the home and away score. Combining them produces a total points distribution. The mean of that distribution is compared to the bookmaker's line (typically 40.5–46.5 points in modern NRL). If the model's total is at least 7% more confident than the implied probability of the over (or under), a tip is published.
Key Drivers of NRL Total Points
- Weather — heavy rain & strong wind reduce total scoring.
- Venue surface & size — narrower grounds favour attack.
- Referee tendency — high-penalty referees inflate set counts and scoring.
- Recent pace — both teams' last-5 points-for and points-against averages.
- Spine availability — halfback, five-eighth and fullback are the heaviest weights in the score model.
2025 Over/Under Performance
The 2025 NRL Total Score model recorded a 53.8% strike rate across 212 tips — modestly profitable after vig in a low-margin market. Totals remains the hardest of Alphr's three NRL markets because referee variance and weather create high score volatility. Read more on how predictions are validated.
This Week's Totals Tips
Live current-round over/under tips for every NRL match are on the NRL hub, with the predicted total, the Sportsbet line, and the edge percentage shown for each pick.
Upcoming NRL Totals Tips
See all NRL tips →- Panthers v DragonsSun 6:25 pm78% conf.
- Roosters v CowboysSat 5:30 pm71% conf.
- Wests Tigers v Sea EaglesSat 3:00 pm68% conf.
- Sharks v BulldogsTomorrow 6:00 pm66% conf.
- Warriors v BroncosSun 4:05 pm66% conf.
Round 10 Results
7W · 1L · 88%More NRL Guides
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