# Gold Coast SUNS v Essendon — AFL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 153 – 58 Essendon

_Gold Coast SUNS outshine Essendon._

Half time: 64 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 97% / Essendon 3% · People First Stadium · Wed, 27 Aug, 07:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Ben King (5' ×7 1st Tipped 🎯), Noah Anderson (22' ×3), Ben Long (26' Tipped ⚡), Matt Rowell (30' ×2), Bailey Humphrey (43' Tipped ⚡), Ethan Read (48' Tipped ⚡), Wil Powell (68'), Daniel Rioli (76'), Brayden Fiorini (79'), Final quarter (33m 15s)Alex Davies (60'), Jy Farrar (70'), Ben Ainsworth (71' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jarrod Witts (93') · Essendon: Sam Durham (11'), Kyle Langford (50' Tipped ⚡), Jye Menzie (52' ×3), Xavier Duursma (65'), Liam McMahon (75' Tipped ⚡), Isaac Kako (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 97% | Won |
| Essendon | 3% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 70.1 predicted → 95 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 153–58 Essendon in AFL Round 24 at People First Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-six to six. That was the score at quarter time, and from there the only real question was how far Gold Coast SUNS were going to push it.

They pushed it to 153-58, at home, against an Essendon side whose form line coming in actually had them averaging a positive margin over their last five, plus 18.3 points a game. None of that showed up here. By half time it was 64-22, by the three-quarter mark 105-36, and Gold Coast just kept adding.

Start with the ruck, because that's where the platform came from. Gold Coast won hit-outs 42 to 20, more than double, and on paper the two rucks were rated almost dead level, 1000 to 998. The gap on the day says the rating undersold them, or Essendon's ruck simply got beaten up. Either way, first use of the ball flowed from there, and Gold Coast turned it into 36 clearances to 31 and 125 contested possessions to 116.

Once they had it, they did more with it. Gold Coast finished with 404 disposals to 321, moved it at 79.7% efficiency against Essendon's 76.0%, and went inside 50 a staggering 67 times to 45. The forward half numbers tell the real story though: 26 marks inside 50 to Essendon's 9. That's not just getting there, that's arriving in control, over and over, while Essendon scrambled to spoil.

Essendon's response was to tackle, and to their credit they did, 45 to 32. Pressure without the ball just isn't much use when you're not winning it back in dangerous areas, and Gold Coast's 61 intercepts to 54 meant even Essendon's better moments kept dying in the same place. The pre-match ratings had Essendon's defence rated the stronger unit, 1055 to 1050. On the day, a five-point edge on paper turned into a 95-point beating on the scoreboard.

The forward line gap was more honest. Gold Coast rated at 1014 against Essendon's 962, and that 52-point spread showed up everywhere the ball went forward, in the marks, in the inside 50 count, in the scoreboard itself.

Alphr's model had this one right in the areas that count. It gave Gold Coast a 97% win probability, and that held up without much drama. The total score prediction of 213 landed within two points of the actual 211, which is about as close as these things get. The margin was the one that got away: 70.1 points predicted, 95 delivered. A near double-figure edge in expected margin isn't nothing, but a blowout of this scale was always going to be hard to pin to the point.

Three picks, three hits on the shape of it. The size of the gap was the only thing the model didn't see coming, and neither, on the numbers, did Essendon.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 46 | 18 | 41 | 48 | 153 |
| Essendon | 6 | 16 | 14 | 22 | 58 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| **404** | Disposals | 321 |
| **125** | Contested poss. | 116 |
| **36** | Clearances | 31 |
| **67** | Inside 50s | 45 |
| **86** | Marks | 80 |
| **26** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| 32 | Tackles | **45** |
| **42** | Hit-outs | 20 |
| **61** | Intercepts | 54 |
| **79.7%** | Disposal eff. | 76.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 97% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 70.1 but the actual margin was 95 points. Total score prediction of 213 was close to the actual 211, within 2 points. Gold Coast SUNS led 64–22 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 95. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.05 (edge +1.7%) — model probability 97.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 70 · Predicted total: 213

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 229 · 167 | 120 · 202 |
| Goal Assists | 4.6/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposals | 100/g | 100/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.9/g | 14.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.3/g | 5.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.7% | 67.9% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 43 · 61 | 74 · 71 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 139/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.1/g | 21.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 3.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.4% | 71.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 22 · 16 | 18 · 28 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 132/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.5/g | 10.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.8% | 79.1% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.43/g (lg 1.24) +15% · Forwards 4.99/g (lg 4.43) +13% · Key Forwards 3.99/g (lg 3.64) +10%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.37/g (lg 1.24) +10% · Midfielders 2.4/g (lg 2.38) +1% · Forwards 4.44/g (lg 4.43) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at People First Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 62 in 22g | 29/10g (2·3·4·2·1·2·4·6·2·3) | 19/7g | 104/47g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.01 AI 96% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $6.75 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 9' 18' 62' 83' 64' 86' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 42 in 21g | 18/10g (1·2·0·1·0·4·2·3·2·3) | 6/9g | 24/24g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 21 in 20g | 14/10g (0·1·2·2·2·1·0·3·3·0) | 4/3g | 22/23g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 20 in 21g | 13/10g (2·2·1·0·1·3·1·1·2·0) | 7/7g | 72/63g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' 89' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 18 in 18g | 12/10g (0·1·3·1·1·1·2·0·2·1) | 3/1g | 10/8g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 16 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 27/89g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 11 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 14/38g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jy Farrar | FWD | 8 in 5g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·2·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 7/14g | 25% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 8 in 22g | 6/10g (2·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 26/51g | 36% | — | 🏉 22' 25' 77' |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 7 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 12/16g | 24% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 7 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 19/41g | 24% | — | 🏉 30' 63' |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 6 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 6/8g | 18/47g | 34% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 5 in 22g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 4/16g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 4/26g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 11/72g | 24% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/11g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 14/47g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 1/23g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/17g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Alex Davies | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/12g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/54g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/53g | 4% | — | 🏉 68' |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 28 in 18g | 12/10g (2·1·1·0·2·2·0·1·1·2) | 4/4g | 47/35g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 68% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 17 in 20g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·2·0) | 2/4g | 2/3g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 14 in 22g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 59% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Liam McMahon | KF | 11 in 6g | 11/6g (2·2·0·4·3·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| – | Matt Guelfi | FWD | 9 in 11g | 8/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·3) | 7/7g | 4/8g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 9 in 21g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/4g | 42% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 9 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/13g | 0/13g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 7 in 8g | 11/10g (1·3·2·1·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 9/8g | 8/9g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 7 in 19g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 1/3g | 36% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Jye Menzie | FWD | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·1·4·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/3g | 1/1g | 44% | — | 🏉 52' 92' 81' |
| – | Angus Clarke | FWD | 5 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Luamon Lual | MID | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/9g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Shiel | MID | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/13g | 3/8g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Blakiston | DEF | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Rhys Unwin | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 5/17g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Laverde | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 5/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Nguyen | FWD | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 32.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 34 ✗ |
| Matt Rowell | 29.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 31 ✗ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.90 | 63% | 21 ✓ |
| John Noble | 26.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 32 ✗ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 23.5 | $1.88 | 47% | 20 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey | 18.5 | $1.87 | 42% | 20 ✗ |
| Daniel Rioli | 18.5 | $1.96 | 42% | 17 ✓ |
| Mac Andrew ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.86 | 67% | 14 ✓ |
| Wil Powell | 17.5 | $1.89 | 46% | 23 ✗ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.90 | 67% | 28 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.91 | 79% | 21 ✓ |
| Mason Redman ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $2.00 | 68% | 22 ✓ |
| Archie Roberts ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.96 | 69% | 29 ✗ |
| Dylan Shiel ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.89 | 87% | 28 ✗ |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.93 | 70% | 13 ✓ |
| Xavier Duursma | 19.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 17 ✓ |
| Archie Perkins ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.87 | 84% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)