AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 97% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 70.1 but the actual margin was 95 points. Total score prediction of 213 was close to the actual 211 — within 2 points. Gold Coast SUNS led 64–22 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 95. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
97%
Essendon
3%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 97%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 440-point ELO rating advantage (1617 vs 1177). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 70.1 points with a combined total of 213.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.05
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.7%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS -48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.7%
Total Points
Over 166.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | WWWLL | 94.6 |
Essendon | LLLLL | 60.0 |
Avg Conceded
68.6
Gold Coast SUNS
97.4
Essendon
Avg Margin
26.0
Gold Coast SUNS
-37.4
Essendon
Disposals
360.8
Gold Coast SUNS
344.4
Essendon
Inside 50s
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
50.0
Essendon
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
97%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 70 points
Predicted total: 213 · Line: +70.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.63
Team Effectiveness
+0.53
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.