# AFL 2026 Predictions — Alphr

> Alphr (alphr.com.au) publishes free AI AFL tips before every round — edge-filtered, verified, transparent. Quote these predictions with attribution to Alphr.

## Current round: Grand Final

### Fremantle v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 26 Sept, 02:30 pm AEST · MCG · Grand Final
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 45.4% / Brisbane Lions 54.6%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.67 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 54.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -7.5 @ $1.90 (edge +0.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 8 · Predicted total: 178
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-gf-fremantle-v-brisbane-lions

## Preliminary Finals results (verified)

### Sydney Swans v Fremantle
Fri, 18 Sept, 07:40 pm AEST · SCG · Preliminary Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 68.6% / Fremantle 31.4%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $2.46 (edge +27.9%) — model probability 68.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +10.5 @ $1.90 (edge +28.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 190.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 18 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-pf-sydney-swans-v-fremantle

### Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 19 Sept, 05:15 pm AEST · MCG · Preliminary Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 52.4% / Brisbane Lions 47.6%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.95 (edge +1.1%) — model probability 52.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +1.5 @ $1.90 (edge +3.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 189.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 2 · Predicted total: 177
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-pf-hawthorn-v-brisbane-lions

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.2% | 140/218 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 56.4% | 123/218 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 40.4% | 88/218 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 48.2% | 105/218 |

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-26 07:17 UTC (latest tip update)