# AFL 2026 Predictions — Alphr

> Alphr (alphr.com.au) publishes free AI AFL tips before every round — edge-filtered, verified, transparent. Quote these predictions with attribution to Alphr.

## Current round: Semi Finals

### Fremantle v Geelong Cats
Fri, 11 Sept, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Semi Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 51.1% / Geelong Cats 48.9%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.55 (edge -13.4%) — model probability 51.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +10.5 @ $1.90 (edge +9.5%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 1 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-sf-fremantle-v-geelong-cats

### Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sat, 12 Sept, 07:35 pm AEST · Gabba · Semi Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 54.3% / Adelaide Crows 45.8%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.31 (edge -22.1%) — model probability 54.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +22.5 @ $1.89 (edge +18.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 4 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-sf-brisbane-lions-v-adelaide-crows

## Qualifying & Elimination Finals results (verified)

### Fremantle v Hawthorn
Thu, 03 Sept, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Qualifying & Elimination Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 66.6% / Hawthorn 33.4%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.43 (edge -3.3%) — model probability 66.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -14.5 @ $1.90 (edge +1.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 163.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 16 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-qe-fremantle-v-hawthorn

### Geelong Cats v Carlton
Fri, 04 Sept, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Qualifying & Elimination Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 53.4% / Carlton 46.6%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.57 (edge -10.3%) — model probability 53.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +9.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 3 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-qe-geelong-cats-v-carlton

### Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 05 Sept, 03:15 pm AEST · SCG · Qualifying & Elimination Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 61.0% / Brisbane Lions 39.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $3.63 (edge +33.5%) — model probability 61.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +24.5 @ $1.90 (edge +36.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 187.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 12 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-qe-sydney-swans-v-brisbane-lions

### Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs
Sat, 05 Sept, 07:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Qualifying & Elimination Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 69.4% / Western Bulldogs 30.6%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.40 (edge -2.0%) — model probability 69.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -16.5 @ $1.90 (edge +4.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 21 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-qe-adelaide-crows-v-western-bulldogs

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.7% | 139/215 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 57.2% | 123/215 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 40.5% | 87/215 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 48.4% | 104/215 |

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Last updated: 2026-09-12 12:23 UTC (latest tip update)