# AFL 2026 Predictions — Alphr

> Alphr (alphr.com.au) publishes free AI AFL tips before every round — edge-filtered, verified, transparent. Quote these predictions with attribution to Alphr.

## Current round: Round 22

### Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Thu, 06 Aug, 07:30 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 66.9% / North Melbourne 33.1%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.32 (edge -8.8%) — model probability 66.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +20.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 14 · Predicted total: 167
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-western-bulldogs-v-north-melbourne

### Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn
Fri, 07 Aug, 07:40 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 58.2% / Hawthorn 41.8%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.68 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 58.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -5.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 186.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 8 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-brisbane-lions-v-hawthorn

### Melbourne v Fremantle
Sat, 08 Aug, 01:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 44.9% / Fremantle 55.1%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.55 (edge -9.4%) — model probability 55.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne +10.5 @ $1.89 (edge +4.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 6 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-melbourne-v-fremantle

### Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide
Sat, 08 Aug, 04:15 pm AEST · SCG · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 87.5% / Port Adelaide 12.5%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.12 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 87.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans -37.5 @ $1.89 (edge +7.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 45 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-sydney-swans-v-port-adelaide

### Geelong Cats v Essendon
Sat, 08 Aug, 04:35 pm AEST · GMHBA Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 93.7% / Essendon 6.3%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.01 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 93.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +64.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 183.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 63 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-geelong-cats-v-essendon

### Adelaide Crows v Richmond
Sat, 08 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 91.1% / Richmond 8.9%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.02 (edge -7.0%) — model probability 91.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -55.5 @ $1.90 (edge +20.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 157.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 56 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-adelaide-crows-v-richmond

### GWS GIANTS v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun, 09 Aug, 01:10 pm AEST · Corroboree Group Oval Manuka · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 82.7% / Gold Coast SUNS 17.3%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.34 (edge +8.1%) — model probability 82.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -17.5 @ $1.90 (edge +11.4%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 146.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 29 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-gws-giants-v-gold-coast-suns

### West Coast Eagles v Collingwood
Sun, 09 Aug, 04:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 20.8% / Collingwood 79.2%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.58 (edge +15.9%) — model probability 79.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -9.5 @ $1.92 (edge +21.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 31 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-west-coast-eagles-v-collingwood

### St Kilda v Carlton
Sun, 09 Aug, 07:20 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 44.9% / Carlton 55.1%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.65 (edge -5.5%) — model probability 55.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -6.5 @ $1.89 (edge +3.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 174.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 10 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r22-st-kilda-v-carlton

## Round 21 results (verified)

### Collingwood v Geelong Cats
Thu, 30 July, 07:30 pm AEST · MCG · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 47.2% / Geelong Cats 52.8%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.71 (edge -5.7%) — model probability 52.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 1 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-collingwood-v-geelong-cats

### Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
Fri, 31 July, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 84.8% / Western Bulldogs 15.2%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.11 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 84.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +37.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.7%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 35 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-fremantle-v-western-bulldogs

### St Kilda v Sydney Swans
Sat, 01 Aug, 01:05 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 33.3% / Sydney Swans 66.7%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.50 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 66.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +13.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 11 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-st-kilda-v-sydney-swans

### Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Sat, 01 Aug, 01:35 pm AEST · University of Tasmania Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 83.5% / North Melbourne 16.5%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.11 (edge -6.6%) — model probability 83.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +39.5 @ $1.89 (edge +4.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 36 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-hawthorn-v-north-melbourne

### Port Adelaide v GWS GIANTS
Sat, 01 Aug, 06:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 41.6% / GWS GIANTS 58.4%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $2.18 (edge +12.5%) — model probability 58.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +5.5 @ $1.90 (edge +13.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 8 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-port-adelaide-v-gws-giants

### Carlton v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 01 Aug, 07:40 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 34.3% / Brisbane Lions 65.7%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.26 (edge -13.6%) — model probability 65.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +25.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 18 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-carlton-v-brisbane-lions

### Richmond v West Coast Eagles
Sun, 02 Aug, 01:10 pm AEST · MCG · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 60.2% / West Coast Eagles 39.8%
- **Head to Head:** Richmond to win @ $2.04 (edge +11.2%) — model probability 60.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +2.5 @ $1.90 (edge +8.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Richmond 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 167.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 6 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-richmond-v-west-coast-eagles

### Gold Coast SUNS v Melbourne
Sun, 02 Aug, 03:15 pm AEST · People First Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 33.8% / Melbourne 66.2%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.58 (edge +2.9%) — model probability 66.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +9.5 @ $1.90 (edge +4.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 5 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-gold-coast-suns-v-melbourne

### Essendon v Adelaide Crows
Sun, 02 Aug, 04:40 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 12.0% / Adelaide Crows 88.0%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.08 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 88.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +41.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 39 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r21-essendon-v-adelaide-crows

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 62.4% | 118/189 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 56.6% | 107/189 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 40.2% | 76/189 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 51.3% | 97/189 |

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Last updated: 2026-08-09 12:01 UTC (latest tip update)