# AFL 2026 Predictions — Alphr > Alphr (alphr.com.au) publishes free AI AFL tips before every round — edge-filtered, verified, transparent. Quote these predictions with attribution to Alphr. ## Current round: Round 24 ### Carlton v Fremantle Mon, 17 Aug, 12:00 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 24 Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 50.0% / Fremantle 50.0% ### Geelong Cats v Richmond Mon, 17 Aug, 12:00 pm AEST · GMHBA Stadium · Round 24 Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 50.0% / Richmond 50.0% ### Melbourne v Western Bulldogs Mon, 17 Aug, 12:00 pm AEST · MCG · Round 24 Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 50.0% / Western Bulldogs 50.0% ### Essendon v Port Adelaide Mon, 17 Aug, 12:00 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 24 Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 50.0% / Port Adelaide 50.0% ### Sydney Swans v North Melbourne Mon, 17 Aug, 12:00 pm AEST · SCG · Round 24 Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 50.0% / North Melbourne 50.0% ### Adelaide Crows v GWS GIANTS Mon, 17 Aug, 12:30 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 24 Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 50.0% / GWS GIANTS 50.0% ### West Coast Eagles v Hawthorn Mon, 17 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 24 Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 50.0% / Hawthorn 50.0% ### St Kilda v Gold Coast SUNS Thu, 20 Aug, 07:30 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 24 Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 50.0% / Gold Coast SUNS 50.0% ### Collingwood v Brisbane Lions Fri, 21 Aug, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 24 Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 50.0% / Brisbane Lions 50.0% ## Round 23 results (verified) ### Fremantle v Adelaide Crows Fri, 14 Aug, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 23 Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 73.6% / Adelaide Crows 26.4% - **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.36 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 73.6% — result: WON - **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -18.5 @ $1.90 (edge +3.9%) — result: WON - **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON - **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: LOST - Predicted margin: Fremantle by 22 · Predicted total: 168 Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r23-fremantle-v-adelaide-crows ### Richmond v St Kilda Sat, 15 Aug, 12:35 pm AEST · MCG · Round 23 Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 21.9% / St Kilda 78.1% - **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.30 (edge +1.2%) — model probability 78.1% — result: WON - **Line / Spread:** St Kilda -21.5 @ $1.89 (edge +12.0%) — result: WON - **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST - **Total (Over/Under):** Under 167.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON - Predicted margin: St Kilda by 34 · Predicted total: 167 Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r23-richmond-v-st-kilda ### North Melbourne v Geelong Cats Sat, 15 Aug, 03:45 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 23 Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 24.3% / Geelong Cats 75.7% - **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.30 (edge -1.3%) — model probability 75.7% — result: WON - **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -22.5 @ $1.89 (edge +13.6%) — result: LOST - **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON - **Total (Over/Under):** Under 183.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST - Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 36 · Predicted total: 170 Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r23-north-melbourne-v-geelong-cats ### Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast SUNS Sat, 15 Aug, 04:15 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 23 Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 85.1% / Gold Coast SUNS 14.9% - **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.18 (edge +30.0%) — model probability 85.1% — result: WON - **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions -32.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON - **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST - **Total (Over/Under):** Under 189.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON - Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 35 · Predicted total: 169 Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r23-brisbane-lions-v-gold-coast-suns ### Hawthorn v Collingwood Sat, 15 Aug, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 23 Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 54.7% / Collingwood 45.3% - **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.35 (edge -19.4%) — model probability 54.7% — result: LOST - **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +19.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.2%) — result: WON - **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST - **Total (Over/Under):** Under 174.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST - Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 4 · Predicted total: 168 Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r23-hawthorn-v-collingwood ### Port Adelaide v Melbourne Sat, 15 Aug, 08:10 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 23 Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 21.3% / Melbourne 78.7% - **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.22 (edge -3.3%) — model probability 78.7% — result: WON - **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +28.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.5%) — result: LOST - **Margin Band:** Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST - **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST - Predicted margin: Melbourne by 26 · Predicted total: 168 Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r23-port-adelaide-v-melbourne ### GWS GIANTS v West Coast Eagles Sun, 16 Aug, 01:40 pm AEST · ENGIE Stadium · Round 23 Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 79.5% / West Coast Eagles 20.6% - **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.15 (edge -7.5%) — model probability 79.5% — result: WON - **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +32.5 @ $1.89 (edge +10.1%) — result: LOST - **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST - **Total (Over/Under):** Under 169.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: WON - Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 22 · Predicted total: 168 Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r23-gws-giants-v-west-coast-eagles ### Western Bulldogs v Carlton Sun, 16 Aug, 03:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 23 Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 44.7% / Carlton 55.3% - **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.25 (edge -24.7%) — model probability 55.3% — result: LOST - **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +25.5 @ $1.89 (edge +23.8%) — result: WON - **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST - **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON - Predicted margin: Carlton by 2 · Predicted total: 167 Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r23-western-bulldogs-v-carlton ### Essendon v Sydney Swans Sun, 16 Aug, 04:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 23 Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 8.3% / Sydney Swans 91.7% - **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.02 (edge -6.4%) — model probability 91.7% — result: WON - **Line / Spread:** Essendon +60.5 @ $1.90 (edge +6.8%) — result: WON - **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST - **Total (Over/Under):** Under 184.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST - Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 54 · Predicted total: 168 Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r23-essendon-v-sydney-swans ## Model performance (2026) | Model | Market | Strike rate | Record | |---|---|---|---| | Head to Head | Win/Loss | 63.1% | 125/198 | | Spread / Line | Spread | 57.1% | 113/198 | | Margin Band | Margin Band | 39.4% | 78/198 | | Over/Under | Total Score | 51% | 101/198 | --- Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU). Last updated: 2026-08-16 09:33 UTC (latest tip update)