# AFL 2026 Predictions — Alphr

> Alphr (alphr.com.au) publishes free AI AFL tips before every round — edge-filtered, verified, transparent. Quote these predictions with attribution to Alphr.

## Season 2026 to date
- Predictions settled: 576 (280W–280L)
- Strike rate: 50%

## Current round: Round 17

### Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions
Thu, 02 July, 07:30 pm AEST · GMHBA Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 81.6% / Brisbane Lions 18.4%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.47 (edge +13.6%) — model probability 81.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats -13.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 21 · Predicted total: 163
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r17-geelong-cats-v-brisbane-lions

### Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs
Fri, 03 July, 07:40 pm AEST · SCG · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 60.4% / Western Bulldogs 39.6%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.42 (edge -10.1%) — model probability 60.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +16.5 @ $1.89 (edge +13.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 184.5 @ $1.85 (edge +90.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 3 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r17-sydney-swans-v-western-bulldogs

### West Coast Eagles v Adelaide Crows
Fri, 03 July, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 12.4% / Adelaide Crows 87.6%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.17 (edge +2.1%) — model probability 87.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +31.5 @ $1.90 (edge +11.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.85 (edge +90.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 20 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r17-west-coast-eagles-v-adelaide-crows

### Hawthorn v Melbourne
Sat, 04 July, 01:15 pm AEST · UTAS Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 88.3% / Melbourne 11.7%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.42 (edge +17.8%) — model probability 88.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -15.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 166.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 34 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r17-hawthorn-v-melbourne

### GWS GIANTS v Fremantle
Sat, 04 July, 01:35 pm AEST · Corroboree Group Oval Manuka · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 9.8% / Fremantle 90.2%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.33 (edge +15.0%) — model probability 90.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -20.5 @ $1.90 (edge +15.4%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 36 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r17-gws-giants-v-fremantle

### Gold Coast SUNS v Collingwood
Sat, 04 July, 04:15 pm AEST · People First Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 12.5% / Collingwood 87.5%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $2.35 (edge +45.0%) — model probability 87.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +8.5 @ $1.90 (edge +57.4%)
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%)
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 49 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r17-gold-coast-suns-v-collingwood

### Richmond v Carlton
Sat, 04 July, 07:35 pm AEST · MCG · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 5.6% / Carlton 94.4%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.13 (edge +5.9%) — model probability 94.4%
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -35.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.6%)
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%)
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 66 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r17-richmond-v-carlton

### Essendon v St Kilda
Sun, 05 July, 03:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 11.5% / St Kilda 88.5%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.21 (edge +5.8%) — model probability 88.5%
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda -29.5 @ $1.90 (edge +14.7%)
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 40+ @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%)
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 44 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r17-essendon-v-st-kilda

### Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
Sun, 05 July, 04:40 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 80.7% / North Melbourne 19.3%
- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.40 (edge +9.3%) — model probability 80.7%
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +16.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.8%)
- **Margin Band:** Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%)
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 9 · Predicted total: 167
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r17-port-adelaide-v-north-melbourne

## Round 16 results (verified)

### Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Thu, 25 June, 07:30 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 72.8% / Sydney Swans 27.2%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $2.04 (edge +23.8%) — model probability 72.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +2.5 @ $1.90 (edge +25.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 23 · Predicted total: 171
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-brisbane-lions-v-sydney-swans

### Hawthorn v GWS GIANTS
Fri, 26 June, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 65.1% / GWS GIANTS 34.9%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.35 (edge -9.0%) — model probability 65.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +19.5 @ $1.89 (edge +15.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 4
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-hawthorn-v-gws-giants

### Carlton v West Coast Eagles
Sat, 27 June, 01:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 70.5% / West Coast Eagles 29.4%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.14 (edge -17.2%) — model probability 70.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +33.5 @ $1.90 (edge +24.3%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 9
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-carlton-v-west-coast-eagles

### Collingwood v Richmond
Sat, 27 June, 04:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 69.6% / Richmond 30.4%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.11 (edge -20.5%) — model probability 69.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +37.5 @ $1.90 (edge +19.2%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 18
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-collingwood-v-richmond

### Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows
Sat, 27 June, 07:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 9.9% / Adelaide Crows 90.1%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.27 (edge +11.4%) — model probability 90.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -22.5 @ $1.90 (edge +12.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 164.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 35
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-port-adelaide-v-adelaide-crows

### North Melbourne v Essendon
Sun, 28 June, 03:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 77.3% / Essendon 22.7%
- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $1.45 (edge +8.3%) — model probability 77.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +14.5 @ $1.89 (edge +50.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 14
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-north-melbourne-v-essendon

### Fremantle v Gold Coast SUNS
Sun, 28 June, 05:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 45.6% / Gold Coast SUNS 54.4%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $4.60 (edge +32.7%) — model probability 54.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +27.5 @ $1.90 (edge +25.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 159.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 2
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r16-fremantle-v-gold-coast-suns

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 56.4% | 79/140 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 55.7% | 78/140 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 36.4% | 51/140 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 51.4% | 72/140 |

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Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC