# AFL 2026 Predictions — Alphr

> Alphr (alphr.com.au) publishes free AI AFL tips before every round — edge-filtered, verified, transparent. Quote these predictions with attribution to Alphr.

## Current round: Round 20

### Adelaide Crows v Collingwood
Thu, 23 July, 07:30 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 42.8% / Collingwood 57.2%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $2.84 (edge +22.0%) — model probability 57.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 163.5 @ $1.85 (edge +90.0%)
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 1 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r20-adelaide-crows-v-collingwood

### Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Fri, 24 July, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 50.0% / Geelong Cats 50.0%

### Fremantle v West Coast Eagles
Fri, 24 July, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 50.0% / West Coast Eagles 50.0%

### Carlton v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat, 25 July, 01:05 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 50.0% / Gold Coast SUNS 50.0%

### Hawthorn v Essendon
Sat, 25 July, 04:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 50.0% / Essendon 50.0%

### GWS GIANTS v Sydney Swans
Sat, 25 July, 04:35 pm AEST · ENGIE Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 50.0% / Sydney Swans 50.0%

### Western Bulldogs v Richmond
Sat, 25 July, 07:40 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 50.0% / Richmond 50.0%

### Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide
Sun, 26 July, 01:10 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 50.0% / Port Adelaide 50.0%

### North Melbourne v St Kilda
Sun, 26 July, 03:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 20
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 50.0% / St Kilda 50.0%

## Round 19 results (verified)

### Geelong Cats v St Kilda
Thu, 16 July, 07:30 pm AEST · GMHBA Stadium · Round 19
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 23.5% / St Kilda 76.5%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $2.43 (edge +35.3%) — model probability 76.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +11.5 @ $1.90 (edge +13.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 181.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 2 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r19-geelong-cats-v-st-kilda

### Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows
Fri, 17 July, 07:40 pm AEST · SCG · Round 19
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 74.5% / Adelaide Crows 25.5%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.47 (edge +6.5%) — model probability 74.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +13.5 @ $1.90 (edge +60.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 13 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r19-sydney-swans-v-adelaide-crows

### Port Adelaide v Fremantle
Sat, 18 July, 01:15 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 19
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 44.9% / Fremantle 55.1%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.05 (edge -40.1%) — model probability 55.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +47.5 @ $1.89 (edge +37.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 10 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r19-port-adelaide-v-fremantle

### North Melbourne v Melbourne
Sat, 18 July, 04:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 19
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 50.0% / Melbourne 50.0%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.44 (edge -19.4%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +15.5 @ $1.89 (edge +5.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 11 · Predicted total: 167
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r19-north-melbourne-v-melbourne

### Collingwood v Carlton
Sat, 18 July, 07:35 pm AEST · MCG · Round 19
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 72.4% / Carlton 27.6%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.67 (edge +12.6%) — model probability 72.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +6.5 @ $1.89 (edge +3.4%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 3 · Predicted total: 167
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r19-collingwood-v-carlton

### West Coast Eagles v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 18 July, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 19
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 21.7% / Brisbane Lions 78.3%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.08 (edge -14.3%) — model probability 78.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +19.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 25 · Predicted total: 167
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r19-west-coast-eagles-v-brisbane-lions

### Richmond v Hawthorn
Sun, 19 July, 01:10 pm AEST · MCG · Round 19
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 26.1% / Hawthorn 73.9%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.05 (edge -21.4%) — model probability 73.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +49.5 @ $1.90 (edge +11.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hawthorn 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 38 · Predicted total: 167
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r19-richmond-v-hawthorn

### Gold Coast SUNS v Western Bulldogs
Sun, 19 July, 03:15 pm AEST · People First Stadium · Round 19
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 88.1% / Western Bulldogs 11.9%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.80 (edge +32.6%) — model probability 88.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -2.5 @ $1.89 (edge +4.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 7 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r19-gold-coast-suns-v-western-bulldogs

### Essendon v GWS GIANTS
Sun, 19 July, 04:40 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 19
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 16.6% / GWS GIANTS 83.4%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.11 (edge -6.7%) — model probability 83.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +39.5 @ $1.89 (edge +13.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 26 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r19-essendon-v-gws-giants

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 59.3% | 96/162 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 55.6% | 90/162 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 37% | 60/162 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.7% | 87/162 |

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Last updated: 2026-07-22 09:57 UTC (latest tip update)