# AFL 2026 Predictions — Alphr

> Alphr (alphr.com.au) publishes free AI AFL tips before every round — edge-filtered, verified, transparent. Quote these predictions with attribution to Alphr.

## Current round: Qualifying & Elimination Finals

### Fremantle v Hawthorn
Thu, 03 Sept, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Qualifying & Elimination Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 66.6% / Hawthorn 33.4%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.43 (edge -3.3%) — model probability 66.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -14.5 @ $1.90 (edge +1.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 163.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 16 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-qe-fremantle-v-hawthorn

### Geelong Cats v Carlton
Fri, 04 Sept, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Qualifying & Elimination Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 53.4% / Carlton 46.6%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.57 (edge -10.3%) — model probability 53.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +9.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 3 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-qe-geelong-cats-v-carlton

### Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 05 Sept, 03:15 pm AEST · SCG · Qualifying & Elimination Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 61.0% / Brisbane Lions 39.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $3.63 (edge +33.5%) — model probability 61.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +24.5 @ $1.90 (edge +36.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 187.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 12 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-qe-sydney-swans-v-brisbane-lions

### Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs
Sat, 05 Sept, 07:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Qualifying & Elimination Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 69.4% / Western Bulldogs 30.6%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.40 (edge -2.0%) — model probability 69.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -16.5 @ $1.90 (edge +4.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 168.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 21 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-qe-adelaide-crows-v-western-bulldogs

## Wildcard Finals results (verified)

### Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
Fri, 28 Aug, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Wildcard Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 52.9% / Collingwood 47.1%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.87 (edge -0.6%) — model probability 52.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -0.5 @ $1.88 (edge +2.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 169.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 3 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-wf-western-bulldogs-v-collingwood

### Melbourne v Carlton
Sat, 29 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · MCG · Wildcard Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 44.7% / Carlton 55.3%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $1.70 (edge -3.5%) — model probability 55.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton -5.5 @ $1.90 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 174.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 7 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-wf-melbourne-v-carlton

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.3% | 137/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 57.7% | 123/213 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 40.4% | 86/213 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 48.8% | 104/213 |

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Last updated: 2026-09-05 12:14 UTC (latest tip update)