# West Coast Eagles v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 51 – 118 Sydney Swans

_Sydney Swans rally to sail past West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 42 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 2% / Sydney Swans 98% · Optus Stadium · Sat, 23 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Jamie Cripps (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jobe Shanahan (10' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jacob Newton (41'), Matt Flynn (58') · Sydney Swans: Hayden McLean (28' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Errol Gulden (34' ×2), Tom Papley (36' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Chad Warner (50'), Jack Buller (54' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Nick Blakey (72' ×2), Will Hayward (76' ×2 Tipped ⚡), James Rowbottom (80' ×2), Isaac Heeney (79' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 98% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 2% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 59.1 predicted → 67 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Sydney Swans Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 24, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

West Coast Eagles 51–118 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 24 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

West Coast Eagles led this game twice. Worth saying that up front, because by the final siren it looks like it barely happened. Twenty points to seven at quarter time, then 42 to 35 at half time. The Eagles were doing the hard yards early, matching it with a Sydney side the model had rated a hefty favourite, and for two quarters that read looked shaky.

Then the wheels came off, comprehensively. From 42-35 up at the main break, West Coast managed just one more point for the third quarter while Sydney piled on 38 to hit 73-43 at the last change. The final term was no better: Sydney added 45, West Coast managed 8. A seven-point half-time deficit for the Swans turned into a 67-point demolition by the close, 118-51.

So what changed? Not much needed to, really. Sydney's positional edges going in were there in the ratings: 1023 to 950 in the ruck, 1037 to 920 in the midfield, and once the ball started bouncing their way those numbers took over. West Coast lost the hit-out count 31 to 54, got outmuscled at the clearances 35 to 39, and were run off their feet at the coalface as the game wore on.

The disposal count tells the same story from a different angle: 323 for West Coast against 387 for Sydney, with the Swans finding targets at 77.4% efficiency to West Coast's 70.5%. West Coast's tackle numbers held up fine, 57 to Sydney's 56, so it wasn't a lack of effort. It was a lack of the ball.

Inside 50 is where it really shows. Sydney went forward 54 times to West Coast's 38, and once there, made it count with 19 marks inside 50 against West Coast's 8. That gap, more than any other single number, explains how a competitive scrap at half time became a rout by the final siren. West Coast had the ball in dangerous positions far less often, and when they did, they weren't hitting targets.

Sydney came into this off a rough recent stretch, an average losing margin of 15.1 and only 1.9 wins from their last five, well below West Coast's 3.0 wins and 27-point average margin over the same run. None of that recent form mattered here. Sydney's forward, midfield and ruck ratings were all higher than West Coast's going in, and once they found their gear after half time, the class gap did the rest.

Alphr's model had Sydney as 59.1-point favourites and gave them a 98% win probability, with a combined total of 149. The final score landed at 169, twenty points over, and the margin came in at 67, eight more than tipped. Close enough to call it a well-read match. West Coast's first-half resistance was real, but it couldn't survive a third quarter where they were outscored 38 to 1. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one leaned heavily the Swans' way once it mattered.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 20 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 51 |
| Sydney Swans | 7 | 28 | 38 | 45 | 118 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 323 | Disposals | **387** |
| 119 | Contested poss. | **126** |
| 35 | Clearances | **39** |
| 38 | Inside 50s | **54** |
| 87 | Marks | **111** |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **19** |
| **57** | Tackles | 56 |
| 31 | Hit-outs | **54** |
| **60** | Intercepts | 59 |
| 70.5% | Disposal eff. | **77.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 98% probability. The predicted margin of 59.1 was reasonable against the actual 67-point result. The game's 169 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 149. Sydney Swans trailed 42–35 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 51–118. The model went 2/3 on this match. Sydney Swans covered the 34.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.14 (edge +10.1%) — model probability 97.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans +34.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 168.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 59 · Predicted total: 149

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sydney Swans lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | West Coast Eagles | 35 – 163 | Sydney Swans |
| 2024 | R4 | West Coast Eagles | 78 – 104 | Sydney Swans |
| 2023 | R15 | Sydney Swans | 205 – 34 | West Coast Eagles |
| 2022 | R5 | West Coast Eagles | 58 – 121 | Sydney Swans |
| 2021 | R16 | Sydney Swans | 118 – 26 | West Coast Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 144 · 228 | 132 · 176 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.6/g | 17.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.8/g | 7.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.4% | 69.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 45 · 90 | 95 · 66 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 93/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.4/g | 22.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.6/g | 3.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.1% | 66.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 13 · 21 | 19 · 27 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.5/g | 11.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.1% | 78.1% |

**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.6/g (lg 0.51) +18% · Midfielders 2.35/g (lg 2.36) +0% · Forwards 4.38/g (lg 4.46) -2%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.78/g (lg 0.51) +53% · Midfielders 3.51/g (lg 2.36) +49% · Key Forwards 4.63/g (lg 3.63) +28%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 23 in 20g | 9/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·2·2·1·1) | 11/13g | 100/83g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 22 in 19g | 11/10g (1·1·0·1·1·2·1·1·3·0) | 8/5g | 77/66g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tyler Brockman | FWD | 14 in 19g | 8/10g (1·1·2·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 7/17g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Bailey J. Williams | RUC | 10 in 15g | 8/10g (2·0·3·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 17/41g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 10 in 19g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 12/19g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Jobe Shanahan | KF | 9 in 8g | 9/8g (1·2·1·1·0·1·3·0) | 0/0g | 6/4g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 47' 68' |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 5 in 22g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 5/7g | 7/20g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 5 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 3/15g | 26% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 5 in 19g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 6/9g | 23/61g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | 5 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/10g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/39g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Noah Long | FWD | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 7/17g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Chesser | MID | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 4/15g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Clay Hall | MID | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 5/18g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/64g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Newton | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Lucca Grego | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/32g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Rhett Bazzo | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sandy Brock | DEF | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tom McCarthy | DEF | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 36 in 22g | 22/10g (1·2·5·0·1·5·1·1·5·1) | 18/10g | 8/8g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 27 in 20g | 13/10g (1·1·1·3·0·1·3·0·3·0) | 11/7g | 15/10g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' 90' |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 23 in 18g | 11/10g (2·1·1·0·3·1·1·0·0·2) | 8/4g | 5/6g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' 86' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 19 in 22g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 5/3g | 8/6g | 62% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 16 in 22g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 44% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 10 in 22g | 7/10g (3·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | 8 in 13g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 41% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Jack Buller | KF | 8 in 8g | 8/9g (0·1·0·2·2·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' 82' |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 8 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/9g | 20% | — | 🏉 72' 89' |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 7 in 21g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/18g | 3/11g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 7 in 21g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 2/10g | 26% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 7 in 22g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 2/9g | 32% | — | 🏉 80' 83' |
| – | Tom Papley | FWD | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·2) | 14/9g | 8/9g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' 86' 63' |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 6 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Errol Gulden | FWD | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 7/4g | 3/4g | 46% | — | 🏉 34' 84' |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Callum Mills | DEF | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 2/10g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Harry Cunningham | DEF | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 1/6g | 18% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.85 | 85% | 17 ✓ |
| Tim Kelly ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.79 | 80% | 24 ✗ |
| Liam Baker ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $2.00 | 69% | 26 ✗ |
| Jack Graham ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 67% | 25 ✗ |
| Tom Cole ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 20 ✗ |
| Elijah Hewett ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.90 | 66% | 14 ✓ |
| Campbell Chesser ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 15 ✓ |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.95 | 72% | 36 ✗ |
| Chad Warner ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.75 | 68% | 17 ✓ |
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.75 | 100% | 14 ✓ |
| Isaac Heeney | 24.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 26 ✗ |
| Brodie Grundy | 24.5 | $1.77 | 66% | 13 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey | 23.5 | $1.83 | 58% | 20 ✓ |
| Callum Mills | 23.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 29 ✗ |
| Angus Sheldrick ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 10 ✓ |
| Jake Lloyd | 19.5 | $1.91 | 49% | 22 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)