# NRL Expert Tips — Preliminary Finals 2026 — Alphr > The analysis layer on top of Alphr's live NRL predictions: the reasoning behind each pick, an honest review of last round (wins AND misses), and the verified season record. Every tip is published before kick-off and never edited. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au). **Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy ## Preliminary Finals tips & analysis ### Dolphins v Roosters Fri, 25 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium **Tip:** Dolphins to win @ $1.63 (edge +4.2%) Dolphins are the call at 62.4%, with Roosters still live at 37.6%. The $1.63 price implies 61.3%, a slim +4.2% edge. A tip more than a bet. The margin model makes it Dolphins by 5, and the totals model leans Under 44.5. Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-pf-dolphins-v-roosters (markdown: /nrl/match/2026-pf-dolphins-v-roosters.md) ### Panthers v Knights Sun, 27 Sept, 04:00 pm AEST · Accor Stadium **Tip:** Panthers to win @ $1.29 (edge +1.2%) The model is firm on Panthers: 75.1% to beat Knights. The $1.29 price implies 77.5%, a slim +1.2% edge. A tip more than a bet. The margin model makes it Panthers by 13, and the totals model leans Under 42.5. Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-pf-panthers-v-knights (markdown: /nrl/match/2026-pf-panthers-v-knights.md) ## Semi Finals review (verified) - **Scoreboard:** head-to-head 1/2 · all markets 3/8 - **Best call:** Warriors went down, but the match still returned 2 of 4 markets. Breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-sf-warriors-v-knights - **Honest miss:** Warriors ($1.52, 55.0% model) lost to Knights, the shortest-priced miss of the round. It stays on the record like every other tip. Breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-sf-warriors-v-knights - **What the model saw:** The model had Roosters at 62.9% against Sharks when the market implied just 69.4% ($1.44). Every Semi Finals result: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/semi-finals (markdown: /nrl/round/semi-finals.md) ## Finals Week 1 review (verified) - **Scoreboard:** head-to-head 2/4 · all markets 9/16 - **Best call:** Panthers over Roosters (+9.5 line). A market clean sweep: all 4 published markets landed. Breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-fw1-panthers-v-roosters - **Honest miss:** Rabbitohs ($1.42, 64.2% model) lost to Knights, the shortest-priced miss of the round. It stays on the record like every other tip. Breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-fw1-rabbitohs-v-knights - **What the model saw:** The model had Panthers at 63.4% against Roosters when the market implied just 75.8% ($1.32). And the read held across every market: head-to-head, line, margin band and total all landed. Every Finals Week 1 result: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/finals-week-1 (markdown: /nrl/round/finals-week-1.md) ## Season 2026 to date | Model | Market | Strike rate | Record | |---|---|---|---| | Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.5% | 138/214 | | Spread / Line | Spread | 50.5% | 108/214 | | Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.2% | 49/211 | | Over/Under | Total Score | 55.6% | 119/214 | | Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 37.3% | 539/1446 | | First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.3% | 48/911 | Across every published market: 414W–439L (48.5%). Judge each market against its odds — margin bands pay $2.50+ and try-scorer markets publish several selections per game where only one can land, so low strike rates there are the expected shape of high-odds markets, not a broken model. Full verified history: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy (markdown: /accuracy.md) ## How to read these tips - **Model probability** — pre-match win chance from ~160 features (ELO, form, lineups, referee, weather, venue, rest days). - **Edge** — model probability minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Picks with at least +7% edge clear the value filter. - **Published before kick-off, verified after full time** — every tip is timestamped pre-match and its Won/Lost result stays visible forever. - **Tips vs bets** — the head-to-head pick is who the model thinks wins; the edge says whether the price is worth taking. ## More NRL predictions - Live predictions hub: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md) - Methodology: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/how-it-works - Verified accuracy: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/accuracy --- Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/expert-tips RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU). Last updated: 2026-09-25 11:47 UTC (latest tip update)