# NRL Expert Tips — Round 24 2026 — Alphr

> The analysis layer on top of Alphr's live NRL predictions: the reasoning behind each pick, an honest review of last round (wins AND misses), and the verified season record. Every tip is published before kick-off and never edited. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

## Round 24 tips & analysis

### Panthers v Roosters
Thu, 13 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium
**Tip:** Panthers to win @ $1.77

Line-ball contest. The model can't split Panthers and Roosters, landing on Panthers at 54.0%. The market is shorter than the model at $1.77 (56.5% implied), so there's no value edge. Treat this as a tip, not a bet. The margin model makes it Panthers by 2, and the totals model leans Under 42.5.

Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-panthers-v-roosters (markdown: /nrl/match/2026-r24-panthers-v-roosters.md)

### Sea Eagles v Dolphins
Fri, 14 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST · 4 Pines Park
**Tip:** Dolphins to win @ $1.35 (edge +1.7%)

The model is firm on Dolphins: 72.3% to beat Sea Eagles. The $1.35 price implies 74.1%, a slim +1.7% edge. A tip more than a bet. The margin model makes it Dolphins by 13, and the totals model leans Over 50.5.

Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-sea-eagles-v-dolphins (markdown: /nrl/match/2026-r24-sea-eagles-v-dolphins.md)

### Bulldogs v Rabbitohs
Fri, 14 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST · Accor Stadium
**Tip:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.57

Bulldogs are the call at 59.8%, with Rabbitohs still live at 40.2%. The market is shorter than the model at $1.57 (63.7% implied), so there's no value edge. Treat this as a tip, not a bet. The margin model makes it Bulldogs by 4, and the totals model leans Under 43.5.

Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-bulldogs-v-rabbitohs (markdown: /nrl/match/2026-r24-bulldogs-v-rabbitohs.md)

### Sharks v Raiders
Sat, 15 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST · Ocean Protect Stadium
**Tip:** Sharks to win @ $1.31 (edge +3.1%)

The model is firm on Sharks: 75.7% to beat Raiders. The $1.31 price implies 76.3%, a slim +3.1% edge. A tip more than a bet. The margin model makes it Sharks by 14, and the totals model leans Under 52.5.

Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-sharks-v-raiders (markdown: /nrl/match/2026-r24-sharks-v-raiders.md)

### Eels v Cowboys
Sat, 15 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium
**Tip:** Cowboys to win @ $1.54

Line-ball contest. The model can't split Eels and Cowboys, landing on Cowboys at 54.8%. The market is shorter than the model at $1.54 (64.9% implied), so there's no value edge. Treat this as a tip, not a bet. The margin model makes it Cowboys by 2, and the totals model leans Under 50.5.

Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-eels-v-cowboys (markdown: /nrl/match/2026-r24-eels-v-cowboys.md)

### Broncos v Warriors
Sat, 15 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium
**Tip:** Warriors to win @ $1.42

Warriors are the call at 66.7%, with Broncos still live at 33.3%. The market is shorter than the model at $1.42 (70.4% implied), so there's no value edge. Treat this as a tip, not a bet. The margin model makes it Warriors by 9, and the totals model leans Over 45.5.

Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-broncos-v-warriors (markdown: /nrl/match/2026-r24-broncos-v-warriors.md)

### Knights v Titans
Sun, 16 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · McDonald Jones Stadium
**Tip:** Knights to win @ $1.22

Knights are the call at 69.9%, with Titans still live at 30.1%. The market is shorter than the model at $1.22 (82.0% implied), so there's no value edge. Treat this as a tip, not a bet. The margin model makes it Knights by 9, and the totals model leans Under 49.5.

Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-knights-v-titans (markdown: /nrl/match/2026-r24-knights-v-titans.md)

### Wests Tigers v Dragons
Sun, 16 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium
**Tip:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.93 (edge +3.8%)

Line-ball contest. The model can't split Wests Tigers and Dragons, landing on Wests Tigers at 53.6%. The $1.93 price implies 51.8%, a slim +3.8% edge. A tip more than a bet. The margin model makes it Wests Tigers by 2, and the totals model leans Under 47.5.

Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-wests-tigers-v-dragons (markdown: /nrl/match/2026-r24-wests-tigers-v-dragons.md)

## Round 23 review (verified)

- **Scoreboard:** head-to-head 4/8 · all markets 14/32
- **Best call:** Rabbitohs over Eels (+9.5 line). A market clean sweep: all 4 published markets landed. Breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-rabbitohs-v-eels
- **Honest miss:** Sharks ($1.19, 80.2% model) lost to Dragons, the shortest-priced miss of the round. It stays on the record like every other tip. Breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-dragons-v-sharks
- **What the model saw:** The model had Dolphins at 69.5% against Broncos when the market implied just 70.4% ($1.42), a +2.6% edge.

Every Round 23 result: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/23 (markdown: /nrl/round/23.md)

## Round 22 review (verified)

- **Scoreboard:** head-to-head 7/8 · all markets 20/32
- **Best call:** Sharks over Rabbitohs (-10.5 line). A market clean sweep: all 4 published markets landed. Breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-sharks-v-rabbitohs
- **Honest miss:** Broncos ($1.50, 61.1% model) lost to Knights, the shortest-priced miss of the round. It stays on the record like every other tip. Breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-broncos-v-knights
- **What the model saw:** The model had Sharks at 75.6% against Rabbitohs when the market implied just 78.1% ($1.28), a +1.1% edge. And the read held across every market: head-to-head, line, margin band and total all landed.

Every Round 22 result: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/22 (markdown: /nrl/round/22.md)

## Season 2026 to date
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 66.3% | 116/175 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 52% | 91/175 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.3% | 40/172 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56% | 98/175 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 36.3% | 413/1137 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.9% | 42/715 |

Across every published market: 345W–352L (49.5%). Judge each market against its odds — margin bands pay $2.50+ and try-scorer markets publish several selections per game where only one can land, so low strike rates there are the expected shape of high-odds markets, not a broken model. Full verified history: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy (markdown: /accuracy.md)

## How to read these tips
- **Model probability** — pre-match win chance from ~160 features (ELO, form, lineups, referee, weather, venue, rest days).
- **Edge** — model probability minus the bookmaker's implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Picks with at least +7% edge clear the value filter.
- **Published before kick-off, verified after full time** — every tip is timestamped pre-match and its Won/Lost result stays visible forever.
- **Tips vs bets** — the head-to-head pick is who the model thinks wins; the edge says whether the price is worth taking.

## More NRL predictions
- Live predictions hub: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)
- Methodology: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/how-it-works
- Verified accuracy: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/expert-tips
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-11 08:04 UTC (latest tip update)