# Port Adelaide v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 24 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 71 – 67 Gold Coast SUNS

_Port Adelaide surge back to topple Gold Coast SUNS._

Half time: 31 – 46 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 25% / Gold Coast SUNS 75% · Adelaide Oval · Fri, 22 Aug, 08:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Jack Whitlock (10' 1st Tipped ⚡), Ewan Mackinlay (23'), Mani Liddy (40'), Mitch Georgiades (72' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ollie Lord (80'), Connor Rozee (89') · Gold Coast SUNS: Ethan Read (17' Tipped ⚡), Ben King (25' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jy Farrar (30' ×2), Ben Long (35' ×3 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 75% | Lost |
| Port Adelaide | 25% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 17.7 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide Power vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 24 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Port Adelaide 71–67 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 24 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Gold Coast SUNS led by 15 at half-time. By the final siren they'd lost by four. That's the whole story of Port Adelaide's 71-67 win at Adelaide Oval, and it's a better story than either team probably expected to be telling.

The Suns were up 24-14 at quarter time and 46-31 at the main break, comfortable margins built on the sort of ball movement Port Adelaide couldn't live with early. Then the third quarter happened. Port Adelaide outscored them badly enough to flip a 15-point deficit into a 58-52 lead by the last change, and from there it became a hold-on job. They got it done, but only just.

Look at the disposal efficiency and you'll wonder how Port Adelaide won at all. Gold Coast hit targets at 70.1% to Port's 67.1%, and they had more inside 50s too, 53 to 48. On raw territory and ball use, the Suns had the better night. Where Port Adelaide made up the ground was contested footy and the air. They won clearances 32-29, contested possessions 124-122, and marks by a wide margin, 81 to 66. The ruck battle was never close either, Port's pre-match rating of 1087 against Gold Coast's 931 showed up on the scoreboard read, even though the Suns actually won hit-outs 43-34. Whatever Port Adelaide did with second use of the ball, it worked.

That third-quarter surge is the number that matters most here. A team that trailed by 15 doesn't claw back to a six-point lead by accident, and Port Adelaide's forward rating (1076 to Gold Coast's 1020) suggests they had the personnel to make it count once the ball started going their way.

For the Suns, the disappointment will sting given the shape of the performance. They moved the ball better, they got it forward more often, and they still walked away with a loss. Their form coming in flagged exactly this kind of vulnerability: an average losing margin of 25.6 points across their last five, against Port Adelaide's tight 5.2. When Gold Coast SUNS have been in close games this season, they haven't been closing them out, and three-quarter time to full time did nothing to change that pattern.

Alphr's model had this one badly wrong. It rated Gold Coast SUNS a 75% favourite and picked them to win by 17.7 points, with a combined total of 146. The final margin was four points to Port Adelaide, the exact opposite result. The one thing the model got right was the total, tipping under 172.5, and 138 points scored kept that leg alive. One from three isn't a good return, and it's a reminder that a half-time margin of 15 points means nothing once the second half kicks off.

Port Adelaide's ruck and contested-ball dominance carried them through a game they were losing on the parts of the stat sheet that usually decide these things. Wins and misses, and this one was a genuine miss for anyone backing the form line.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 14 | 17 | 27 | 13 | 71 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 24 | 22 | 6 | 15 | 67 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| **337** | Disposals | 325 |
| **124** | Contested poss. | 122 |
| **32** | Clearances | 29 |
| 48 | Inside 50s | **53** |
| **81** | Marks | 66 |
| 8 | Marks inside 50 | **10** |
| 57 | Tackles | **61** |
| 34 | Hit-outs | **43** |
| 70 | Intercepts | 70 |
| 67.1% | Disposal eff. | **70.1%** |

**Model Report Card**

Port Adelaide defied the model's 75% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 17.7 but the actual margin was 4 points. Port Adelaide trailed 31–46 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 71–67. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 172.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.27 (edge -3.7%) — model probability 75.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +22.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.7%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 18 · Predicted total: 146

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 162 · 199 | 220 · 160 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 4.7/g |
| Disposals | 100/g | 101/g |
| Inside 50s | 16/g | 19.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.1/g | 10.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.4% | 67.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 38 · 71 | 43 · 58 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 3.5/g |
| Disposals | 139/g | 126/g |
| Inside 50s | 21/g | 22.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.5% | 71.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 34 · 31 | 22 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 1.1/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 107/g | 126/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.1/g | 14.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 74.6% | 78.9% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.39/g (lg 1.25) +11% · Forwards 4.49/g (lg 4.42) +2% · Midfielders 2.39/g (lg 2.39) +0%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.47/g (lg 1.25) +18% · Forwards 4.58/g (lg 4.42) +4% · Rucks 0.52/g (lg 0.51) +2%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 54 in 22g | 29/10g (7·1·5·4·3·2·1·3·2·1) | 6/3g | 94/50g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' 74' 80' |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 27 in 18g | 14/10g (0·2·2·1·1·3·3·0·2·0) | 5/4g | 62/37g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 19 in 21g | 8/10g (2·1·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 44/119g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 14 in 21g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 10/12g | 53% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | 11 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 1/1g | 17/17g | 58% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 10 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 10/6g | 78/82g | 34% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 12/15g | 65/135g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Jed McEntee | FWD | 5 in 5g | 9/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·2·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 17/30g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/20g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jack Whitlock | KF | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (0·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.56 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 3/33g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 24/61g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 10/72g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 1/64g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/42g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 30/75g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | DEF | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/25g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ewan Mackinlay | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Harrison Ramm | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Mani Liddy | MID | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | 🏉 40' |
| – | Rory Atkins | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 26/58g | 12% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 59 in 21g | 27/10g (1·2·3·4·2·1·2·4·6·2) | 5/5g | 8/6g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.38 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' 57' 70' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 39 in 20g | 16/10g (1·1·2·0·1·0·4·2·3·2) | 2/5g | 1/4g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' 51' 67' |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 20 in 20g | 13/10g (0·2·2·1·0·1·3·1·1·2) | 5/7g | 5/10g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 17 in 17g | 11/10g (0·0·1·3·1·1·1·2·0·2) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 16 in 19g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/8g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 11 in 19g | 4/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/4g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 8 in 21g | 6/10g (0·2·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/6g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 7 in 21g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 1/4g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Fiorini | MID | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 3/8g | 2/7g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jy Farrar | FWD | 6 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·3·2·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 21% | — | 🏉 30' 84' |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 5 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 1/11g | 24% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 3 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 4/9g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Alex Davies | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Alex Sexton | FWD | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 7/7g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Gulbin | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 60% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Oscar Adams | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 35 ✗ |
| Connor Rozee | 25.5 | $1.91 | 59% | 34 ✗ |
| Travis Boak ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $2.00 | 72% | 22 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell | 20.5 | $1.95 | 61% | 21 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 19.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 21 ✗ |
| Mani Liddy | 15.5 | $1.85 | 53% | 17 ✗ |
| Aliir Aliir | 13.5 | $1.96 | 51% | 11 ✓ |
| Mitch Georgiades | 12.5 | $1.77 | 63% | 15 ✗ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 21 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 21 ✓ |
| Touk Miller ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.92 | 70% | 20 ✓ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 27 ✗ |
| Brayden Fiorini | 21.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 27 ✗ |
| Joel Jeffrey | 19.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 9 ✓ |
| Wil Powell | 17.5 | $1.85 | 57% | 21 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)