AI Game Review
Port Adelaide defied the model's 75% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 17.7 but the actual margin was 4 points. Port Adelaide trailed 31–46 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 71–67. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 172.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
25%
Gold Coast SUNS
75%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. The model sees Gold Coast SUNS ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 359-point ELO rating advantage (1659 vs 1300). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 17.7 points with a combined total of 146.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.27
Lost ✗
Edge
-3.7%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS +22.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-3.7%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | LLLLL | 59.8 |
Gold Coast SUNS | WWWLL | 90.4 |
Avg Conceded
116.6
Port Adelaide
75.8
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
-56.8
Port Adelaide
14.6
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
316.2
Port Adelaide
362.6
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
50.0
Port Adelaide
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 18 points
Predicted total: 146 · Line: -17.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.19
Team Effectiveness
-0.11
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.