AI Game Review
Port Adelaide defied the model's 75% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 17.7 but the actual margin was 4 points. Port Adelaide trailed 31–46 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 71–67. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 172.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
25%
Gold Coast SUNS
75%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. Port Adelaide are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Gold Coast SUNS counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Port Adelaide carry a 55-point ELO rating advantage (1541 vs 1486). The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 17.7 points with a combined total of 146.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.27
Lost ✗
Edge
-3.7%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS +22.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-3.7%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | W W W L L | 84.3 |
Gold Coast SUNS | W W W L L | 88.0 |
Avg Conceded
74.0
Port Adelaide
85.3
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
5.2
Port Adelaide
25.6
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
331.8
Port Adelaide
351.9
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
51.9
Port Adelaide
42.4
Gold Coast SUNS
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1541 vs 1486), but the market favours Gold Coast SUNS (@1.27).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 18 points
Predicted total: 146 · Line: -17.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.19
Team Effectiveness
-0.11
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.