Win Probability
AI Game Review
Warriors defied the model's 60% prediction for Storm, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.8 but the actual margin was 24 points. Warriors led 14–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 1/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 9 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Warriors bucked the trend, Storm historically win 67% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
60%
Warriors
40%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Warriors are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Storm ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 49-point ELO rating advantage (1552 vs 1502). Recent form favours Warriors with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Storm. The margin model predicts Storm by 5.8 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.36
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.9%
Line / Spread
Warriors +9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Storm 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | R2026-R1W R2026-R2W R2026-R3L R2026-R4L R2026-R5L older → newer | 29.2 |
Warriors | R2026-R1W R2026-R2W R2026-R3W R2026-R4L R2026-R5L | 31.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Storm
20.8
Warriors
Avg Margin
5.2
Storm
10.4
Warriors
Run Metres
1688
Storm
1701
Warriors
Line Breaks
7.0
Storm
4.6
Warriors
Referee Indicator
Favours StormGrant Atkins
313 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Storm have won 34 of 51 games (67%), significantly stronger than Warriors's 12 from 30 (40%).
Avg Total
42.9 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Storm get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Warriors's -0.1.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Storm predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +5.8
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.