# Storm v Warriors — NRL Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 14 – 38 Warriors

_Warriors conquer Storm._

Half time: 14 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 60% / Warriors 40% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Sat, 11 Apr, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Cooper Clarke (17'), Jack Howarth (23') · Warriors: Ali Leiataua (10' 1st), Marata Niukore (15'), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (31'), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (44' Tipped ⚡), Jackson Ford (47'), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (52')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 60% | Lost |
| Warriors | 40% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 6 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Apr 2026, 05:00 pm · Last updated: 11 Apr 2026, 09:45 pm_

Storm 14–38 Warriors in NRL Round 6 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Storm actually won the discipline count, conceding seven penalties to eight, and their effective tackle percentage sat at 87.0% against the Warriors' 85.7%. On another night that sort of ledger keeps you in the contest. Not this one. Storm lost 38-14, and the gap between doing a few things right and actually winning the game was enormous.

The Warriors had the ball for 54% of the match and did far more with it. They completed at 88% to Storm's 80%, coughing up the ball just eight times to Storm's nine. Six line breaks to three, 518 post-contact metres to 382, 635 kick metres to 482. Storm's forward pack rated marginally ahead pre-match, 1022 to 994, and the hooker edge was even more lopsided at 1074 to 1022. None of it showed up where it needed to.

Storm actually hit back hard early. Ali Leiataua opened the scoring for the Warriors in the 9th minute, and Marata Niukore stretched it to 2-10 by the 14th. Storm responded through Cooper Clarke and then Jack Howarth, who levelled things at 12-12 in the 23rd minute. That was as good as it got. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak crossed in the 30th to put the Warriors 14-16 up, and Storm went to the break trailing 14-18, still within a converted try or two.

Then the Warriors turned the contest into a procession. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck scored in the 43rd, Jackson Ford four minutes later, and Watene-Zelezniak grabbed his second in the 51st to make it 14-34. Storm didn't trouble the scoreboard again. Twenty unanswered points across eight minutes is the kind of spell that buries a side regardless of what the completion rate says.

Storm's form line coming in read WWLLL, and the pattern held. Their season average concession sits at 24 points a game, and they shipped 38 here. The Warriors, by contrast, arrived as the form side at 3-2 across their last five, averaging 31.2 points scored and conceding a leaner 20.8. Their average margin of victory over that stretch was 10.4. They doubled it on Saturday.

Alphr's model had Storm favourites at 60%, tipping them by 5.8 points off ratings of 1552 to 1502. The actual margin ran 24 points the other way, one of the heavier misses the model will log this season. It went 1/17 on the finer markets around this match, and the Warriors covered the 9.5-point line with room to spare.

Storm will look at the shape of it and see genuine positives, the tackle efficiency, the tighter error count, a spirited response to go level at 12-12. But six line breaks against three and a 24-point swing across the middle of the game tell the real story. The Warriors were sharper with ball in hand and ruthless when it counted, and Storm simply couldn't find an answer once the momentum turned.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| Warriors | 18 | 20 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 80% | Completion rate | **88%** |
| 1,242 | Run metres | **1,442** |
| 382 | Post-contact metres | **518** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 32 | Tackle breaks | **35** |
| 10 | Offloads | 10 |
| **87.0%** | Effective tackle % | 85.7% |
| 35 | Missed tackles | **32** |
| 9 | Errors | **8** |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 482 | Kick metres | **635** |

**Model Report Card**

Warriors defied the model's 60% prediction for Storm, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.8 but the actual margin was 24 points. Warriors led 14–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 1/17 on this match. Warriors covered the 9.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 9 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Warriors bucked the trend, Storm historically win 67% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — Ali Leiataua (Warriors) — 2-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 14' Try — Marata Niukore (Warriors) — 2-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 16' Try — Cooper Clarke (Storm) — 6-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 23' Try — Jack Howarth (Storm) — 12-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 30' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 14-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 43' Try — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) — 14-22 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 47' Try — Jackson Ford (Warriors) — 14-28 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 51' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 14-34 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.36 (edge -9.9%) — model probability 60.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 6 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Storm are the call at 60%, but Warriors stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 49 ELO points clear, 1552 to 1502. Form leans Warriors' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Storm.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Storm by 5.8, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Storm, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 38-14 in 2026 Round 6.

Storm have put up 126 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Storm 11th against Warriors 5th.

The market has Storm favourites, Storm $1.36 and Warriors $3.19, with the line at Storm -9.5 and the total at 47.5.

Grant Atkins has the whistle.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 9 · Warriors 1 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 38-14 |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm at home | 7-5 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 11th · Warriors 5th |
| Finals odds | Storm 0% · Warriors 100% |
| Market | Storm $1.36 · Warriors $3.19 |
| Line | Storm -9.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Grant Atkins |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Grant Atkins** — 313 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 34W–17L | 67% |
| Warriors | 12W–18L | 40% |

Avg total: 42.9 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Storm have won 34 of 51 games (67%), significantly stronger than Warriors's 12 from 30 (40%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Storm get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Warriors's -0.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 29.2pts | Avg Score | 31.2pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 20.8pts |
| 5.2pts | Avg Margin | 10.4pts |
| 1688.4m | Run Metres | 1700.6m |
| 7.0 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 329.8 | Tackles | 310.6 |
| 7.8 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | R1 W · R2 W · R3 L · R4 L · R5 L | 29.2 |
| Warriors | R1 W · R2 W · R3 W · R4 L · R5 L | 31.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R6 | Storm | 42 – 14 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R15 | Warriors | 24 – 38 | Storm |
| 2024 | R2 | Storm | 30 – 26 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R8 | Storm | 30 – 22 | Warriors |
| 2022 | R20 | Warriors | 12 – 24 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.4 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 8th there (1.8 conceded/game). Key man: Faalogo, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the right edge: NRL's 8th-ranked right edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 13th there (1.8 conceded/game). Key man: Watene-Zelezniak, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.8/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.6/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.6/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.4/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 3.4/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.8/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.4/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 3 | 6 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 2.8/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 279m/g | 185m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.8/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.9% | 85.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 14 | 11 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 647m/g | 604m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.4/g | 14.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.7% | 77.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 5 | 9 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 512m/g | 583m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 8.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.7% | 87.9% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Fullbacks 0.54/g (lg 0.43) +26% · Centres 0.85/g (lg 0.71) +20% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.13) +0%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.37/g (lg 1.25) +10% · Centres 0.63/g (lg 0.71) -11% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.09) -22%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 8 in 5g | 11/10g (0·0·2·0·1·2·3·1·1·1) | 2/1g | 7/11g | 53% | — | — |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 6 in 5g | 10/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·4·0) | 1/2g | 15/27g | 56% | 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/20g | 22% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/7g | 19/46g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Moses Leo | WG | 2 in 4g | 2/6g (0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 33% | — | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 34/103g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/12g | 31/70g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/16g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 19/49g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 7/48g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $9.50 AI 13% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Joe Chan | 2R | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/17g | 13% | — | — |
| 12 | Cooper Clarke | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/48g | 6% | ⚡ Anytime Try $9.25 AI 12% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 11/43g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.90 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/34g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Hetherington | RES | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Davvy Moale | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 5 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·3) | 7/13g | 5/6g | 40% | — | 🏉 31' 52' |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | CE | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 1/6g | 32% | 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/3g | 12% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 15 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/4g | 12% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1552 · Warriors 1502 · ELO difference: 49 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1022 | 994 | Storm +28 |
| Backs | 1018 | 1009 | Storm +9 |
| Halves | 1047 | 1036 | Storm +11 |
| Hooker | 1074 | 1022 | Storm +52 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Storm |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Storm predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-11 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)