AI Win Probability
Eels
52%
Titans
48%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Eels a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Eels ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Eels carry a 142-point ELO rating advantage (1452 vs 1310). Recent form favours Eels with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Titans. The margin model predicts Eels by 1.8 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Eels to Win @1.67
Edge
-4.5%
Line / Spread
Titans +3.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Eels 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | WWWLL | 32.0 |
Titans | WWLLL | 19.6 |
Avg Conceded
32.4
Eels
28.0
Titans
Avg Margin
-0.4
Eels
-8.4
Titans
Run Metres
1638
Eels
1433
Titans
Line Breaks
7.5
Eels
6.0
Titans
Each team's win rate when Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiates, Eels have won 3 of 6 games (50%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Titans's 2 from 11 (18%). That's a 32‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 6 games for Eels — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
41.4 pts
Home Win %
45%
Home Bias
Leans away
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Eels predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +1.8
Try Scorer Predictions
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