NRL | Round 6

alphr.com.au

PAR
Eels
VS
GLD
Titans
COMMBANK STADIUM, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 12 APR, 2:00 PM

AI Win Probability

52%EelsFavourite

Eels

52%

Titans

48%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Eels a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Eels ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Eels carry a 142-point ELO rating advantage (1452 vs 1310). Recent form favours Eels with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Titans. The margin model predicts Eels by 1.8 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Eels to Win @1.67

Edge

-4.5%

Line / Spread

Titans +3.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Eels 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 51.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Eels
WWWLL
32.0
Titans
WWLLL
19.6

Avg Conceded

32.4

Eels

28.0

Titans

Avg Margin

-0.4

Eels

-8.4

Titans

Run Metres

1638

Eels

1433

Titans

Line Breaks

7.5

Eels

6.0

Titans

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Eels
Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski73 games since 2012

Each team's win rate when Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

PAR
50%3W 3L
GLD
18%2W 9L

When Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiates, Eels have won 3 of 6 games (50%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Titans's 2 from 11 (18%). That's a 32‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 6 games for Eels — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

41.4 pts

Home Win %

45%

Home Bias

Leans away

H2H History (Last 5)Eels lead 3-2
Jun 2025PAR 36 - 20 GLD
Jul 2024PAR 16 - 24 GLD
Jul 2023PAR 25 - 24 GLD
May 2023PAR 24 - 26 GLD
Apr 2022PAR 26 - 20 GLD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

PAR
1452Overall1310
GLD
ELO difference: +142 in favour of Eels

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

955Forwards786
PAR +168
967Backs800
PAR +167
989Halves806
PAR +183
947Hooker788
PAR +159

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

PAR
Stat
GLD
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
32.0pts
Avg Score
19.6pts
32.4pts
Avg Conceded
28.0pts
-0.4pts
Avg Margin
-8.4pts
1638.0m
Run Metres
1433.0m
7.5
Line Breaks
6.0
300.0
Tackles
300.0
12.0
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Eels
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Eels
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Eels
4
Halves Control9.0%
Eels
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Eels
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Eels
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Eels

Model Confidence

52%

Eels predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: +1.8

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