Win Probability
AI Game Review
Titans defied the model's 52% prediction for Eels, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.8 but the actual margin was 42 points. Titans led 6–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 42. The model went 4/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiated this match (73 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 21 points above Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's career average of 41. Titans bucked the trend, Eels historically win 50% of games under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski, but couldn't convert that edge today. Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averaged 13.5 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 70% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Eels
52%
Titans
48%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Eels a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Eels ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Eels carry a 142-point ELO rating advantage (1452 vs 1310). Recent form favours Eels with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Eels by 1.8 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Eels to Win @1.67
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.5%
Line / Spread
Titans +3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Eels 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | R2026-R1L R2026-R2W R2026-R3W R2026-R4L R2026-R5L older → newer | 22.8 |
Titans | R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R3L R2026-R4W R2026-R5L | 14.8 |
Avg Conceded
34.8
Eels
27.6
Titans
Avg Margin
-12.0
Eels
-12.8
Titans
Run Metres
1545
Eels
1550
Titans
Line Breaks
4.0
Eels
3.2
Titans
Referee Indicator
Favours EelsZiggy Przeklasa-Adamski
73 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiates, Eels have won 3 of 6 games (50%), significantly stronger than Titans's 2 from 11 (18%). Small sample (6 games for Eels).
Avg Total
41.4 pts
Home Win %
45%
Home Bias
Leans away
Pen / Game
13.5
Sin Bins / Gm
0.49
SB Away %
70%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averages 13.5 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.4 against home vs 7.1 against away. Eels get a +3.6 penalty advantage under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski vs Titans's +0.0. 70% of his 37 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Eels predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +1.8
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.