NRL | Round 6

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 55% probability. The predicted margin of 2.0 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Roosters trailed 22–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 22–34. The model went 4/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

🏁

AI Referee Insights

Todd Smith officiated this match (100 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 10 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Roosters bucked the trend, Sharks historically win 69% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80', Roosters firmly in control (99%)

SHA22

1%80'99%

34ROO

← Roosters momentumMomentum -17Sharks momentum →

Next Try (within 10 min)

AI Model

88% none

SHA 6%No try 88%ROO 6%

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

55%RoostersFavourite

Sharks

45%

Roosters

55%

✨

AI Match Overview

Roosters hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Sharks are far from out of this at 45%. Sharks are stronger on paper across 7 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Roosters counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Sharks carry a 38-point ELO rating advantage (1569 vs 1530). Recent form favours Sharks with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Roosters by 2.0 points with a combined total of 48.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Roosters to Win @1.85

Winner ✓

Edge

+3.2%

✓

Line / Spread

Roosters -1.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Roosters 1-12 @2.55

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Under 50.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Sharks	R2026-R1W R2026-R2L R2026-R3L R2026-R4W R2026-R5W older → newer	27.2
Roosters	R2025-R28L R2026-R1L R2026-R2W R2026-R3L R2026-R4W	18.2

Avg Conceded

23.6

Sharks

27.2

Roosters

Avg Margin

3.6

Sharks

-9.0

Roosters

Run Metres

1626

Sharks

1694

Roosters

Line Breaks

5.4

Sharks

4.6

Roosters

Referee Indicator

Favours Sharks

Todd Smith

100 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)

Sharks

9W – 4L

69%

Roosters

7W – 5L

58%

Sharks hold a 11-point edge: 9W–4L (69%) vs Roosters's 7W–5L (58%). Home teams win 55% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Avg Total

45.9 pts

Home Win %

55%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

10.7

Sin Bins / Gm

0.50

SB Away %

52%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams5.3

vs Away Teams5.4

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Sharks

+0.5

Roosters

+0.0

Sharks get a +0.5 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Roosters's +0.0.

H2H History (Last 5)Sharks lead 3-2

Sep 2025CRO 20 - 10 SYD

Jul 2025CRO 31 - 18 SYD

May 2025CRO 16 - 42 SYD

May 2024CRO 38 - 30 SYD

Sep 2023CRO 12 - 13 SYD

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1569 vs 1530), but the market favours Roosters (@1.85).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

CRO

1569Overall1530

SYD

ELO difference: +38 in favour of Sharks

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1079Forwards1023

CRO +57

1070Backs1051

CRO +19

1042Halves1019

CRO +23

1029Hooker1035

Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CRO

Stat

SYD

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

2.0

27.2pts

Avg Score

18.2pts

23.6pts

Avg Conceded

27.2pts

3.6pts

Avg Margin

-9.0pts

1625.8m

Run Metres

1693.6m

5.4

Line Breaks

4.6

349.0

Tackles

335.0

11.2

Errors

12.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Sharks

Forward Pack12.0%

Sharks

Backline Quality10.0%

Sharks

Halves Control9.0%

Sharks

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Sharks

Referee Tendency7.0%

Sharks

Venue Advantage7.0%

Sharks

Model Confidence

55%

Roosters predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 48 · Line: -2.0

3/4 match predictions correct1/13 scorer picks correct

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Braydon TrindallSharks

halfFair 2.102+ 14%

$3.80

+21.4% edge

Model

48%

Market

26%

Confidence

48%

Billy BurnsSharks

forwardFair 2.572+ 9%

$4.80

+18.1% edge

Model

39%

Market

21%

Confidence

39%

Toby RudolfSharks

forwardFair 4.752+ 2%

$12.00

+12.7% edge

Model

21%

Market

Confidence

21%

Blayke BraileySharks

hookerFair 3.822+ 4%

$6.75

+11.4% edge

Model

26%

Market

15%

Confidence

26%

Teig WiltonSharks

forwardFair 3.152+ 6%

$3.90

+6.1% edge

Model

32%

Market

26%

Confidence

32%

Briton NikoraSharks

benchFair 3.562+ 4%

$4.40

+5.3% edge

Model

28%

Market

23%

Confidence

28%

Angus CrichtonRoosters

forwardFair 2.972+ 6%

$3.50

+5.1% edge

Model

34%

Market

29%

Confidence

34%

Nat ButcherRoosters

benchFair 6.672+ 1%

$9.25

+4.2% edge

Model

15%

Market

11%

Confidence

15%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Mark NawaqanitawaseRoosters

backFair 4.022+ 27%

$7.50

+11.5% edge

Model

25%

Market

13%

Confidence

25%

Daniel TupouRoosters

backFair 6.062+ 14%

$9.50

+6.0% edge

Model

17%

Market

11%

Confidence

17%

Braydon TrindallSharks

halfFair 9.082+ 14%

$19.00

+5.8% edge

Model

11%

Market

Confidence

11%

Billy BurnsSharks

forwardFair 11.922+ 9%

$23.00

+4.0% edge

Model

Market

Confidence

Briton NikoraSharks

benchFair 17.862+ 4%

$51.00

+3.6% edge

Model

Market

Confidence