# Sharks v Roosters — NRL Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 22 – 34 Roosters

_Roosters roar back to rule the roost over Sharks from 10 down._

Half time: 22 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 45% / Roosters 55% · Optus Stadium, Perth · Sat, 11 Apr, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Jesse Colquhoun (6' 1st), Mawene Hiroti (10'), Braydon Trindall (25' Tipped ⚡), Thomas Hazelton (33') · Roosters: Sam Walker (29'), Daniel Tupou (40' Tipped ⚡), Daly Cherry-Evans (43'), Daniel Tupou (65' Tipped ⚡), Daly Cherry-Evans (69'), Victor Radley (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 55% | Won |
| Sharks | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 6 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Apr 2026, 05:00 pm · Last updated: 11 Apr 2026, 07:32 pm_

Sharks 22–34 Roosters in NRL Round 6 at Optus Stadium, Perth. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had this one at Roosters by 2, on the back of ratings of 1569 to 1530 and a 55% win probability. For most of the first half it looked like a bad read. By the time the teams went in at the break, the Sharks were up 22-12 and the margin was pointing the wrong way entirely. Then the second half happened, and Roosters won 34-22, and suddenly a 2-point margin call against a 12-point actual result doesn't look so silly.

Sharks came out of the blocks exactly as their form suggested they might. Jesse Colquhoun opened the scoring in the 6th minute, Mawene Hiroti followed in the 10th, and by the 24th minute Braydon Trindall had it out to 16-0. That's three tries in the first 24 without reply, built on a completion rate that finished at 81% against the Roosters' 73%. Thomas Hazelton's try in the 33rd made it 20-6 and the Sharks looked to be playing the sort of clean, low-error footy their season average of 11.2 errors per game would suggest.

Roosters chipped away before the break, Sam Walker in the 29th and Daniel Tupou right on halftime, and went in only down 22-12. That's the version of the Roosters this year's numbers hinted at too, a team that's lost more than it's won across its last five (2 from 5) but still averaging more run metres per game than the Sharks, 1693.6 to 1625.8. Forward depth and go-forward were always the theory. In this match it showed up late.

The second half belonged entirely to the visitors. Daniel Tupou's second try in the 65th levelled it at 22-22, Daly Cherry-Evans' second in the 69th put Roosters in front for the first time all game, and Victor Radley finished it off in the 76th. Four tries to nothing after halftime is about as clean a second-half turnaround as you'll see, and it lines up with what the whole-game stat sheet ended up saying.

Roosters ran for 1,835 metres to the Sharks' 1,405, and post-contact they doubled them up almost exactly, 637 to 479. Forty-two tackle breaks to 19 tells you Sharks defenders spent the day being shrugged off, and the same 42-to-19 split turns up again in missed tackles, this time the wrong way round for the home side. Roosters' effective tackle rate, 92.3% against 87.6%, meant the pressure stayed on all afternoon even while giving up more penalties, 4 to the Sharks' 8.

Sharks were the tidier side on paper. Fewer errors, 12 to 16, better completions, and 575 kick metres to control field position. None of it mattered once the collisions started going the other way. A forward pack rated 1079 to 1023 pre-match didn't translate into the physical edge once Roosters got their go-forward working, and that's really the story of the whole second half.

Four from 17 on the card for this one, but the shape of the read, Roosters by a bit, held up better than the early scoreboard suggested it would. The 1-12 margin band landed, the head-to-head pick landed, and a side that trailed by ten at the break finished the day covering comfortably. Sometimes the numbers just need forty extra minutes to catch up with themselves.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 22 | 0 | 22 |
| Roosters | 12 | 22 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| 1,405 | Run metres | **1,835** |
| 479 | Post-contact metres | **637** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 19 | Tackle breaks | **42** |
| 4 | Offloads | **7** |
| 87.6% | Effective tackle % | **92.3%** |
| 42 | Missed tackles | **19** |
| **12** | Errors | 16 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| **575** | Kick metres | 458 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 55% probability. The predicted margin of 2.0 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Roosters trailed 22–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 22–34. The model went 4/17 on this match. Roosters covered the 1.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (100 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 10 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Roosters bucked the trend, Sharks historically win 69% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Jesse Colquhoun (Sharks) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 10' Try — Mawene Hiroti (Sharks) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 24' Try — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 29' Try — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 16-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 33' Try — Thomas Hazelton (Sharks) — 20-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 40' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 22-12 · win-prob swing -13 pts
- 42' Try — Daly Cherry-Evans (Roosters) — 22-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 65' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 22-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 69' Try — Daly Cherry-Evans (Roosters) — 22-26 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 76' Try — Victor Radley (Roosters) — 22-32 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.85 (edge +3.2%) — model probability 55.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 2 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 55%, but Sharks stay live at 45%. The ratings say otherwise: Sharks sit 38 ELO points clear, 1569 to 1530, so the model is backing Roosters against the ratings gap. Form leans Sharks' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Roosters.

On paper Sharks shade it, ahead on 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Roosters, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. The margin model has Roosters by 2.0, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 46-10 in 2026 Round 29.

Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four. Roosters have won 3 straight. Roosters have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sharks 6th against Roosters 10th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Sharks $2.00 and Roosters $1.85, with the line at Sharks +1.5 and the total at 50.5.

Roosters come in fresher, 15 days between games against 6.

Todd Smith has the whistle.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 4 · Roosters 6 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 46-10 |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks at home | 9-4 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWW · 113 for, 67 against |
| Roosters away | 9-5 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 6th · Roosters 10th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Sharks $2.00 · Roosters $1.85 |
| Line | Sharks +1.5 · total 50.5 |
| Rest gap | Sharks 6d · Roosters 15d |
| Referee | Todd Smith |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Todd Smith** — 100 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 9W–4L | 69% |
| Roosters | 7W–5L | 58% |

Avg total: 45.9 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Sharks hold a 11-point edge: 9W–4L (69%) vs Roosters's 7W–5L (58%). Home teams win 55% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Sharks get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Roosters's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 27.2pts | Avg Score | 18.2pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| 3.6pts | Avg Margin | -9.0pts |
| 1625.8m | Run Metres | 1693.6m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 349.0 | Tackles | 335.0 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | R1 W · R2 L · R3 L · R4 W · R5 W | 27.2 |
| Roosters | FW1 L · R1 L · R2 W · R3 L · R4 W | 18.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | Roosters | 46 – 10 | Sharks |
| 2026 | R16 | Roosters | 27 – 8 | Sharks |
| 2025 | FW1 | Sharks | 20 – 10 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R20 | Sharks | 31 – 18 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R12 | Roosters | 42 – 16 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 17th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Burns, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 13th there (1.8 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.4/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 8th) | 0.5/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.25/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.2/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.8/g (def 13th (weak)) | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 2 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 3.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 210m/g | 172m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 86.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 15 | 11 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 738m/g | 750m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21.8/g | 22.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 73.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 3 | 1 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 435m/g | 533m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 10/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.41/g (lg 0.27) +52% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.16) +25% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.09) +67% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.71) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 4 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 3/8g | 1/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 1/1g | 42% | — | — |
| 3 | Mawene Hiroti | CE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/2g | 26% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| 5 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 46% | — | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/2g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.75 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 6% | ⚡ Anytime Try $12.00 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Billy Burns | 2R | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Jesse Colquhoun | LK | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 14 | Briton Nikora | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $51.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 14% | — | 🏉 33' |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 8/17g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 2 in 4g | 8/10g (0·2·3·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 14/17g | 0/0g | 56% | 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' 65' |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 3 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 3 in 4g | 14/10g (3·0·0·4·3·1·0·1·0·2) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 56% | 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 25% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/22g | 1/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 43' 69' |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/13g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $9.25 AI 15% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1569 vs 1530), but the market favours Roosters (@1.85). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1569 · Roosters 1530 · ELO difference: 38 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1079 | 1023 | Sharks +57 |
| Backs | 1070 | 1051 | Sharks +19 |
| Halves | 1042 | 1019 | Sharks +23 |
| Hooker | 1029 | 1035 | Roosters +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sharks |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sharks |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Roosters predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-11 09:32 UTC (latest tip update)