Question 1

Are the Super League predictions live?

Accepted Answer

Yes. Alphr now loads current-season Super League match predictions from the dedicated model pipeline. The Super League page uses scraped match data, team ratings, rolling form, player availability signals and model outputs stored in Supabase. Predictions are displayed for head-to-head, projected margin and projected total points.

Question 2

Do Super League tips include H2H, margin and totals?

Accepted Answer

Yes. The same core market structure used for NRL is available for Super League fixtures. Each match card shows a win probability, projected margin and projected total. The betting-odds and edge layer will switch on once a reliable odds feed is connected, but the match model outputs are already available.

Question 3

What data powers the Super League model?

Accepted Answer

The model uses official match, team and player data from the Super League match centre. The pipeline covers historical fixtures, scores, venues, team statistics, player statistics, lineup strength, team ELO and player ELO features across more than a decade of Super League results.

Question 4

How accurate is the Super League model?

Accepted Answer

The held-out 2024-2025 H2H model tested at 68.9% accuracy. The current clean training run uses 2015-2022 for training, 2023 for validation and 2024-2025 as the held-out test window. The H2H model returned 68.9% accuracy with a 0.786 ROC-AUC on that held-out period.

Question 5

When are Super League tips published each round?

Accepted Answer

Tips publish before kick-off, once fixtures and lineups for the round are confirmed. The model regenerates predictions for the upcoming round from all completed matches to date, so the ELO ratings and rolling-form features are always current. Head-to-head, margin and total picks for every fixture appear on the Super League hub and the dedicated Expert Tips, Best Bets and Margin Tips pages before the games are played.

Question 6

What do the Super League margin bands mean?

Accepted Answer

Each result is classified as 1-12, 13-24, 25+ or Draw. The margin model maps the projected score difference onto four bands: 1-12 is a one-score game, 13-24 is a comfortable win, 25+ is a blowout and Draw is a tie. A margin tip only wins if the predicted side wins and the actual winning margin lands in the predicted band. See the Margin Tips page for the current round.

Question 7

Do Super League tips include betting odds or value (edge)?

Accepted Answer

Not yet. Picks are ranked on model confidence until a Super League odds feed is connected. Alphr does not currently have a reliable live Super League odds source, so Best Bets are ordered by model confidence rather than bookmaker edge. When an odds feed is connected, the same picks will also show implied probability and value, the way NRL and AFL best bets already do.

Question 8

How does the model handle Super League team lineups?

Accepted Answer

It uses confirmed squads when available and the most recent named lineup as a proxy otherwise. Player-based lineup ELO captures the strength of the named squad for each fixture. When the official lineup for an upcoming round has not yet been released, the model uses the team's most recent lineup as a proxy, then refreshes the prediction once the confirmed squad is published.

Question 9

Are the Super League tips free?

Accepted Answer

Yes. Every Super League tip is free and public with no paywall. All head-to-head, margin and total picks are free to view. The model's full record is shown openly so you can judge it on results rather than marketing, the same approach Alphr takes for AFL and NRL.

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