NRL | Round 6

Cowboys defied the model's 57% prediction for Broncos, a notable result. The predicted margin of 2.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The game's 66 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 44. The model went 7/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

🏁

AI Referee Insights

Ashley Klein officiated this match (380 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 23 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Cowboys bucked the trend, Broncos historically win 59% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Cowboys prevailed.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80', Cowboys firmly in control (99%)

BRO31

1%80'99%

35COW

← Cowboys momentumMomentum -23Broncos momentum →

Next Try (within 10 min)

AI Model

91% none

BRO 5%No try 91%COW 4%

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

57%BroncosFavourite

Broncos

57%

Cowboys

43%

✨

AI Match Overview

Broncos hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Cowboys are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Broncos carry a 128-point ELO rating advantage (1585 vs 1457). The margin model predicts Broncos by 2.5 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Broncos to Win @1.67

Lost ✗

Edge

-0.5%

✗

Line / Spread

Cowboys +3.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Broncos 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 48.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Broncos	R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R3W R2026-R4W R2026-R5W older → newer	20.4
Cowboys	R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R3W R2026-R4W R2026-R5W	24.8

Avg Conceded

20.8

Broncos

22.4

Cowboys

Avg Margin

-0.4

Broncos

2.4

Cowboys

Run Metres

1632

Broncos

1816

Cowboys

Line Breaks

3.2

Broncos

6.0

Cowboys

Referee Indicator

Favours Broncos

Ashley Klein

380 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)

Broncos

29W – 20L

59%

Cowboys

18W – 23L

44%

When Ashley Klein officiates, Broncos have won 29 of 49 games (59%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 18 from 41 (44%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Avg Total

43.4 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

8.9

Sin Bins / Gm

0.16

SB Away %

42%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams4.3

vs Away Teams4.6

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Broncos

-0.3

Cowboys

+1.1

Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Cowboys get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Broncos's -0.3.

H2H History (Last 5)Broncos lead 5-0

Sep 2025BRI 38 - 30 NQL

Mar 2025BRI 26 - 16 NQL

Aug 2024BRI 42 - 18 NQL

Mar 2024BRI 38 - 12 NQL

Aug 2023BRI 30 - 14 NQL

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

BRI

1585Overall1457

NQL

ELO difference: +128 in favour of Broncos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1060Forwards952

BRI +108

1124Backs973

BRI +151

1064Halves971

BRI +93

1077Hooker958

BRI +120

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

BRI

Stat

NQL

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

3.0

20.4pts

Avg Score

24.8pts

20.8pts

Avg Conceded

22.4pts

-0.4pts

Avg Margin

2.4pts

1632.0m

Run Metres

1816.0m

3.2

Line Breaks

6.0

345.4

Tackles

321.6

13.0

Errors

12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Broncos

Forward Pack12.0%

Broncos

Backline Quality10.0%

Broncos

Halves Control9.0%

Broncos

Recent Win Rate9.0%

—

Referee Tendency7.0%

Broncos

Venue Advantage7.0%

Broncos

Model Confidence

57%

Broncos predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +2.5

1/4 match predictions correct6/13 scorer picks correct

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Murray TaulagiCowboys

backFair 1.382+ 37%

$1.82

+17.5% edge

Model

72%

Market

55%

Confidence

72%

Gehamat ShibasakiBroncos

backFair 1.592+ 26%

$2.18

+17.2% edge

Model

63%

Market

46%

Confidence

63%

Josiah KarapaniBroncos

backFair 1.582+ 26%

$1.98

+12.6% edge

Model

63%

Market

51%

Confidence

63%

Kotoni StaggsBroncos

backFair 1.602+ 26%

$1.97

+11.9% edge

Model

63%

Market

51%

Confidence

63%

Jaxon PurdueCowboys

backFair 1.722+ 22%

$2.15

+11.8% edge

Model

58%

Market

47%

Confidence

58%

Scott DrinkwaterCowboys

backFair 2.332+ 11%

$2.90

+8.4% edge

Model

43%

Market

34%

Confidence

43%

Heilum LukiCowboys

forwardFair 2.752+ 8%

$3.50

+7.7% edge

Model

36%

Market

29%

Confidence

36%

Braidon Burns

backFair 1.792+ 20%

$2.00

+6.0% edge

Model

56%

Market

50%

Confidence

56%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Murray TaulagiCowboys

backFair 4.182+ 37%

$9.50

+13.4% edge

Model

24%

Market

11%

Confidence

24%

Gehamat ShibasakiBroncos

backFair 5.692+ 26%

$11.00

+8.5% edge

Model

18%

Market

Confidence

18%

Josiah KarapaniBroncos

backFair 5.682+ 26%

$10.00

+7.6% edge

Model

18%

Market

10%

Confidence

18%

Kotoni StaggsBroncos

backFair 5.762+ 26%

$10.00

+7.3% edge

Model

17%

Market

10%

Confidence

17%

Jaxon PurdueCowboys

backFair 6.162+ 22%

$11.00

+7.1% edge

Model

16%

Market

Confidence

16%