AI Win Probability
Broncos
57%
Cowboys
43%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Cowboys are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Broncos carry a 128-point ELO rating advantage (1585 vs 1457). Recent form favours Broncos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Broncos by 2.5 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.67
Edge
-0.5%
Line / Spread
Cowboys +3.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Broncos 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | WWWLL | 18.4 |
Cowboys | WWLLL | 24.4 |
Avg Conceded
21.2
Broncos
30.0
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-2.8
Broncos
-5.6
Cowboys
Run Metres
1435
Broncos
1811
Cowboys
Line Breaks
1.0
Broncos
3.0
Cowboys
Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Ashley Klein officiates, Broncos have won 29 of 49 games (59%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Cowboys's 18 from 41 (44%). That's a 15‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Broncos an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
43.4 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Broncos predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +2.5
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.