NRL | Round 6

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 53% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Rabbitohs by 2.0 vs the actual margin of 2 points. The game's 70 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 45. The model went 4/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

🏁

AI Referee Insights

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 25 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 45. Raiders's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Raiders have a 83% win rate under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80', Raiders firmly in control (99%)

RAB34

1%80'99%

36RAI

← Raiders momentumMomentum +24Rabbitohs momentum →

Next Try (within 10 min)

AI Model

91% none

RAB 5%No try 91%RAI 4%

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

53%RaidersFavourite

Rabbitohs

47%

Raiders

53%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Raiders a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Rabbitohs are stronger on paper across 7 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Raiders counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Rabbitohs carry a 79-point ELO rating advantage (1486 vs 1406). Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Raiders. The margin model predicts Rabbitohs by 2.0 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Raiders to Win @2.52

Winner ✓

Edge

+14.8%

✓

Line / Spread

Raiders +6.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Rabbitohs 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 49.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Rabbitohs	R2025-R27L R2026-R1W R2026-R2L R2026-R3W R2026-R5W older → newer	23.2
Raiders	R2026-R1W R2026-R2L R2026-R3L R2026-R4L R2026-R5L	15.8

Avg Conceded

26.4

Rabbitohs

29.6

Raiders

Avg Margin

-3.2

Rabbitohs

-13.8

Raiders

Run Metres

1567

Rabbitohs

1644

Raiders

Line Breaks

4.4

Rabbitohs

4.6

Raiders

Referee Indicator

Favours Raiders

Liam Kennedy

60 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)

Rabbitohs

5W – 5L

50%

Raiders

5W – 1L

83%

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Raiders have won 5 of 6 games (83%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 5 from 10 (50%). Small sample (6 games for Raiders).

Avg Total

45.3 pts

Home Win %

52%

Home Bias

Neutral

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

11.1

Sin Bins / Gm

0.40

SB Away %

58%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams5.2

vs Away Teams5.9

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Rabbitohs

+0.4

Raiders

-1.6

Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.4 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Raiders's -1.6.

H2H History (Last 5)Raiders lead 4-1

Jun 2025SOU 12 - 36 CAN

Aug 2024SOU 12 - 32 CAN

Jun 2023SOU 26 - 33 CAN

May 2022SOU 12 - 32 CAN

Apr 2021SOU 34 - 20 CAN

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SOU

1486Overall1406

CAN

ELO difference: +79 in favour of Rabbitohs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1005Forwards899

SOU +106

1021Backs939

SOU +81

999Halves869

SOU +131

948Hooker895

SOU +52

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SOU

Stat

CAN

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

1.0

23.2pts

Avg Score

15.8pts

26.4pts

Avg Conceded

29.6pts

-3.2pts

Avg Margin

-13.8pts

1567.2m

Run Metres

1644.4m

4.4

Line Breaks

4.6

297.4

Tackles

366.6

11.8

Errors

11.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Rabbitohs

Forward Pack12.0%

Rabbitohs

Backline Quality10.0%

Rabbitohs

Halves Control9.0%

Rabbitohs

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Rabbitohs

Referee Tendency7.0%

Rabbitohs

Venue Advantage7.0%

Rabbitohs

Model Confidence

53%

Raiders predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +2.0

2/4 match predictions correct2/13 scorer picks correct

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Tallis DuncanRabbitohs

forwardFair 1.512+ 30%

$3.75

+39.7% edge

Model

66%

Market

27%

Confidence

66%

Ethan StrangeRaiders

halfFair 1.422+ 34%

$3.05

+37.7% edge

Model

70%

Market

33%

Confidence

70%

Lachlan HubnerRabbitohs

benchFair 2.552+ 9%

$7.75

+26.3% edge

Model

39%

Market

13%

Confidence

39%

Peter MamouzelosRabbitohs

benchFair 2.572+ 9%

$7.00

+24.7% edge

Model

39%

Market

14%

Confidence

39%

Corey HorsburghRaiders

forwardFair 3.362+ 5%

$11.00

+20.6% edge

Model

30%

Market

Confidence

30%

Noah MartinRaiders

forwardFair 2.172+ 13%

$3.90

+20.4% edge

Model

46%

Market

26%

Confidence

46%

Kaeo WeekesRaiders

backFair 1.812+ 19%

$2.50

+15.2% edge

Model

55%

Market

40%

Confidence

55%

Tevita TatolaRabbitohs

forwardFair 4.262+ 3%

$10.00

+13.4% edge

Model

23%

Market

10%

Confidence

23%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Ethan StrangeRaiders

halfFair 5.992+ 34%

$15.00

+10.0% edge

Model

17%

Market

Confidence

17%

Tallis DuncanRabbitohs

forwardFair 6.622+ 30%

$18.00

+9.6% edge

Model

15%

Market

Confidence

15%

Alex JohnstonRabbitohs

backFair 4.952+ 43%

$7.00

+5.9% edge

Model

20%

Market

14%

Confidence

20%

Lachlan HubnerRabbitohs

benchFair 14.512+ 9%

$81.00

+5.7% edge

Model

Market

Confidence

Peter MamouzelosRabbitohs

benchFair 14.622+ 9%

$61.00

+5.2% edge

Model

Market

Confidence