# Rabbitohs v Raiders — NRL Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 34 – 36 Raiders

_Raiders survive a scare against Rabbitohs._

Half time: 4 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 47% / Raiders 53% · Optus Stadium, Perth · Sat, 11 Apr, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Cody Walker (25'), Cody Walker (46'), Jamie Humphreys (50'), Latrell Mitchell (55'), Alex Johnston (75' Tipped ⚡), Jack Wighton (77') · Raiders: Hudson Young (19' 1st), Savelio Tamale (28'), Kaeo Weekes (33' Tipped ⚡), Hudson Young (39' 1st), Kaeo Weekes (64' Tipped ⚡), Ethan Strange (71' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 53% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 6 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Apr 2026, 05:00 pm · Last updated: 11 Apr 2026, 04:51 pm_

Rabbitohs 34–36 Raiders in NRL Round 6 at Optus Stadium, Perth. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Raiders led 24-4 at the break and spent the rest of the night trying not to get run down. They very nearly didn't get away with it.

The gap was built early and built fast. Hudson Young opened the account in the 19th minute, and by the 38th he'd scored again either side of tries to Savelio Tamale and Kaeo Weekes, turning a manageable 4-6 deficit into a 22-point hole. Cody Walker's first for South Sydney in the 24th minute was the only reply the Rabbitohs had to show for the opening forty. At 4-24, this looked like a canter.

Instead it turned into the kind of second half that makes a coach reach for the antacids. Walker crossed again in the 46th, Jamie Humphreys followed three minutes later, and Latrell Mitchell's try in the 55th had it back to 20-24. From 22 points down to four, the Rabbitohs had the Raiders looking over their shoulder. Weekes' second try in the 64th and Ethan Strange's in the 70th steadied the ledger at 22-34, but South Sydney kept coming, with Alex Johnston and Jack Wighton scoring in the 75th and 76th to drag it back to 32-36. The margin at the finish, 2 points, was the same margin the Rabbitohs trailed by for the entire final quarter of an hour. They just ran out of clock.

The stat sheet tells you why this was close and why it still wasn't enough. South Sydney had 52% of the ball, completed at 80% against the Raiders' 72%, and cut the line eight times to four. That's a team playing better footy for long stretches. But the Raiders won the collision battle where it counted, out-breaking tackles 36 to 33 and matching them almost stat for stat on effective tackle percentage, 88.7% to 88.4%. Cleaner completion and more line breaks usually wins you a game. Here it just made the loss respectable.

Individually, Cody Walker's brace and the flurry of second-half tries showed exactly what the pre-match ratings said should happen: South Sydney's backline (1,021 to 939) and halves (999 to 869) were rated well clear of their opposite numbers, and once the ball started moving through Walker they proved it. Hudson Young and Kaeo Weekes, with two tries apiece for the Raiders, did the damage while the lead was still fat enough to matter, which in the end was the difference between winning and a very uncomfortable finish.

Form lines pointed to the Rabbitohs, who arrived on a 3-2 last-five record against a Raiders side that had lost four straight. The Raiders' form average of conceding 29.6 points a game suggested exactly this kind of second-half leak was on the cards, and it duly showed up.

Alphr's model backed the Raiders at 53% and picked the Rabbitohs to win by 2, called it as a tight one, and nailed the margin, just facing the wrong direction. The predicted total of 45 undersold it badly, with the sides combining for 70. Four from seventeen markets on this one. Some days the model reads the contest, not the scoreboard.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 4 | 30 | 34 |
| Raiders | 24 | 12 | 36 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 72% |
| **1,859** | Run metres | 1,711 |
| **515** | Post-contact metres | 494 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 33 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| **9** | Offloads | 6 |
| 88.4% | Effective tackle % | **88.7%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **33** |
| **11** | Errors | 12 |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |
| **542** | Kick metres | 481 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 53% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Rabbitohs by 2.0 vs the actual margin of 2 points. The game's 70 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 45. The model went 4/17 on this match. Raiders covered the 6.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 25 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 45. Raiders's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Raiders have a 83% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 19' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 24' Try — Cody Walker (Rabbitohs) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 28' Try — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 4-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 32' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 4-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 38' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 4-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 46' Try — Cody Walker (Rabbitohs) — 8-24 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 49' Try — Jamie Humphreys (Rabbitohs) — 14-24 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 55' Try — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 20-24 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 64' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 22-28 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 70' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 22-34 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 75' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 26-36 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 76' Try — Jack Wighton (Rabbitohs) — 32-36 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $2.52 (edge +14.8%) — model probability 52.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 2 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Rabbitohs and Raiders. The model can't split them, landing on Raiders at 53%. The ratings say otherwise: Rabbitohs sit 79 ELO points clear, 1486 to 1406, so the model is backing Raiders against the ratings gap. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Raiders.

On paper Rabbitohs shade it, ahead on 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Raiders, which says Referee Tendency carry the most weight. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 2.0, with the two sides combining for about 45. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Raiders have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 34-24 in 2026 Round 20.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Rabbitohs 3, Raiders 3.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 4th against Raiders 16th.

The market has Rabbitohs favourites, Rabbitohs $1.53 and Raiders $2.52, with the line at Rabbitohs -6.5 and the total at 49.5.

Liam Kennedy has the whistle.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 2 · Raiders 8 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 34-24 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 4th · Raiders 16th |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 100% · Raiders 0% |
| Market | Rabbitohs $1.53 · Raiders $2.52 |
| Line | Rabbitohs -6.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Liam Kennedy |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Liam Kennedy** — 60 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 5W–5L | 50% |
| Raiders | 5W–1L | 83% |

Avg total: 45.3 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Raiders have won 5 of 6 games (83%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 5 from 10 (50%). Small sample (6 games for Raiders).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Raiders's -1.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 15.8pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 29.6pts |
| -3.2pts | Avg Margin | -13.8pts |
| 1567.2m | Run Metres | 1644.4m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 297.4 | Tackles | 366.6 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | R27 L · R1 W · R2 L · R3 W · R5 W | 23.2 |
| Raiders | R1 W · R2 L · R3 L · R4 L · R5 L | 15.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Raiders | 34 – 24 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R14 | Raiders | 36 – 12 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R21 | Raiders | 32 – 12 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R13 | Rabbitohs | 26 – 33 | Raiders |
| 2022 | R11 | Rabbitohs | 12 – 32 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.25 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 11th there (1.6 conceded/game). Key man: Mitchell, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 10th-ranked right edge attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 9th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Tamale, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.8/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.8/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.2/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 2.25/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 9th) | 1.2/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.6/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 2 | 2 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 95m/g | 166m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.8/g | 4.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.6% | 84.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 10 | 9 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 599m/g | 789m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.3/g | 25.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.4% | 77% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 3 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 682m/g | 483m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.8/g | 10.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 91% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.17) +47% · Centres 0.98/g (lg 0.71) +38% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.5/g (lg 0.27) +85% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.13) +46% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 5 in 4g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·1·2·1·1) | 10/13g | 1/3g | 58% | 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| 3 | Latrell Mitchell | CE | 5 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2) | 5/7g | 0/2g | 42% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 3 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 2/6g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 2/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 25' 46' |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 6% | ⚡ Anytime Try $10.00 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Peter Mamouzelos | INT | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.00 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $61.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.75 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $81.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 16 | Sean Keppie | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Le Blanc | RES | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' 64' |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 35% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | CE | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Jed Stuart | WG | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 7/10g (0·3·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 19' 39' |
| 12 | Noah Martin | INT | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | INT | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $11.00 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Ata Mariota | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1486 · Raiders 1406 · ELO difference: 79 in favour of Rabbitohs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1005 | 899 | Rabbitohs +106 |
| Backs | 1021 | 939 | Rabbitohs +81 |
| Halves | 999 | 869 | Rabbitohs +131 |
| Hooker | 948 | 895 | Rabbitohs +52 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Raiders |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Raiders predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-11 06:51 UTC (latest tip update)