AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
47%
Raiders
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Raiders a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Rabbitohs are stronger on paper across 7 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Raiders counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Rabbitohs carry a 79-point ELO rating advantage (1486 vs 1406). Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Raiders. The margin model predicts Rabbitohs by 2.0 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @2.52
Edge
+14.8%
Line / Spread
Raiders +6.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Rabbitohs 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | WWWLL | 24.8 |
Raiders | WLLLL | 15.8 |
Avg Conceded
21.6
Rabbitohs
29.6
Raiders
Avg Margin
3.2
Rabbitohs
-13.8
Raiders
Run Metres
1854
Rabbitohs
1613
Raiders
Line Breaks
5.3
Rabbitohs
5.0
Raiders
Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Raiders have won 5 of 6 games (83%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 5 from 10 (50%). That's a 33‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.3 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 6 games for Raiders — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
45.3 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Raiders predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +2.0
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.