# Dragons v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 18 – 28 Sea Eagles

_Sea Eagles take flight against Dragons._

Half time: 12 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 41% / Sea Eagles 59% · WIN Stadium, Wollongong · Fri, 10 Apr, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Luciano Leilua (31'), Jacob Liddle (35' Tipped ⚡), Setu Tu (45' Tipped ⚡) · Sea Eagles: Reuben Garrick (6' 1st), Tom Trbojevic (15'), Reuben Garrick (17' 1st), Kobe Hetherington (54'), Lehi Hopoate (65')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 59% | Won |
| Dragons | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.2 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Dragons vs Sea Eagles Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 6, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Apr 2026, 05:00 pm · Last updated: 10 Apr 2026, 08:21 pm_

Dragons 18–28 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 6 at WIN Stadium, Wollongong. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sea Eagles came to WIN Stadium with the boot, Dragons came with ambition, and for long stretches both plans looked like they'd work. Manly finished with 730 kick metres to the Dragons' 582, content to play territory and let field position do the damage. St George Illawarra went the other way, offloading 13 times to Manly's 8 and cutting the line five times to the visitors' four. In the end the away side's control of the ball, 51% possession and a 79% completion rate against the Dragons' 73%, was the difference. Final score: Sea Eagles 28, Dragons 18.

The first twenty minutes had nothing patient about it. Reuben Garrick opened the account inside six minutes, Tom Trbojevic added one on 15, and Garrick doubled up a minute later to make it 0-14. Three tries in ten minutes, the sort of start that can bury a team before it's found its feet.

The Dragons didn't fold. Luciano Leilua crossed on 30, Jacob Liddle on 35, and Setu Tu levelled it at 16-16 in the 44th minute, right on the stroke of half-time, with the Sea Eagles ahead 16-12 at the break. Three tries in fourteen minutes to answer three in ten. St George Illawarra's version came through footwork and offloads rather than territory, and for a while it worked just as well.

Manly had the last word. Kobe Hetherington put them back in front on 54', and Lehi Hopoate stretched it to 18-26 on 65'. That's where the scoring stopped, Sea Eagles 28, Dragons 18.

Look at the shape of the stats and it's a genuinely mixed picture. The Dragons out-offloaded Manly 13 to 8 and edged the post-contact metres, 577 to 544, both signs they were the more dangerous side with ball in hand. But Manly ran for more, 1,760 metres to 1,664, and had marginally more tackle breaks, 25 to 24. Effective tackle percentage was close, 90.3 for the Dragons against 89.5 for Manly, though the home side missed marginally more tackles, 25 to 24. None of that decided it. Discipline did plenty of damage: the Dragons conceded eight penalties to Manly's three, and every time St George Illawarra built pressure they handed field position straight back.

Manly's forward and spine ratings coming in were considerably stronger across the board: forwards 986 to 765, halves 983 to 797, hooker 954 to 791. That gap showed up in exactly the areas you'd expect, the kicking game and the composure to answer the Dragons' second-quarter surge. The Dragons arrived on a run of five straight losses; Manly's form was mixed but included two wins in their last five. Both trends played out roughly as expected, even with the scores level at the break.

Alphr's model had Manly favourites at 59% with a predicted margin of 2.2 and a combined total of 46. The final total landed on 46 exactly, and the head was right, even though the actual margin of 10 points

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| Sea Eagles | 16 | 12 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 73% | Completion rate | **79%** |
| 1,664 | Run metres | **1,760** |
| **577** | Post-contact metres | 544 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 24 | Tackle breaks | **25** |
| **13** | Offloads | 8 |
| **90.3%** | Effective tackle % | 89.5% |
| 25 | Missed tackles | **24** |
| 12 | Errors | 12 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 582 | Kick metres | **730** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 59% probability. The predicted margin of 2.2 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 46, within 0 points. The model went 4/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (289 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 41% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Sea Eagles prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 15' Try — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 16' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 30' Try — Luciano Leilua (Dragons) — 4-16 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 35' Try — Jacob Liddle (Dragons) — 10-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 44' Try — Setu Tu (Dragons) — 16-16 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 54' Try — Kobe Hetherington (Sea Eagles) — 18-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 65' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 18-26 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.41 (edge -8.7%) — model probability 58.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 2 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sea Eagles are the call at 59%, but Dragons stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 188 ELO points clear, 1459 to 1271. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Dragons.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 2.2, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Sea Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Sea Eagles have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Sea Eagles took the most recent meeting 44-10 in 2026 Round 26.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 3-9 at home this year.

On the ladder it's Dragons 17th against Sea Eagles 12th.

The market has Sea Eagles favourites, Dragons $2.90 and Sea Eagles $1.41, with the line at Dragons +7.5 and the total at 49.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 4 · Sea Eagles 6 |
| Last meeting | Sea Eagles 44-10 |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons at home | 3-9 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 17th · Sea Eagles 12th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Sea Eagles 0% |
| Market | Dragons $2.90 · Sea Eagles $1.41 |
| Line | Dragons +7.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Adam Gee** — 289 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 10W–23L | 30% |
| Sea Eagles | 15W–22L | 41% |

Avg total: 42.7 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Sea Eagles hold a 11-point edge: 15W–22L (41%) vs Dragons's 10W–23L (30%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Dragons get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Sea Eagles's +0.1. 64% of his 121 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 13.6pts | Avg Score | 27.8pts |
| 29.0pts | Avg Conceded | 28.4pts |
| -15.4pts | Avg Margin | -0.6pts |
| 1743.8m | Run Metres | 1668.0m |
| 2.8 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 383.4 | Tackles | 322.0 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | R1 L · R2 L · R3 L · R4 L · R5 L | 13.6 |
| Sea Eagles | R27 W · R1 L · R2 L · R4 L · R5 W | 27.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Sea Eagles | 44 – 10 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R26 | Dragons | 24 – 40 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R7 | Sea Eagles | 18 – 20 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R15 | Sea Eagles | 30 – 14 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R4 | Dragons | 20 – 12 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the right edge: NRL's 16th-ranked right edge attack (0.6 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 17th there (2.25 conceded/game). Key man: Tuipulotu, 1 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.25 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 11th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Trbojevic, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.8/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.6/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 11th) | 2.25/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.6/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 8th) | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 2.25/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 4 | 3 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 151m/g | 150m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.8/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.4% | 80.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 14 | 11 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 722m/g | 789m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.4/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.2% | 72% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 4 | 4 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 598m/g | 533m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 10.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.7% | 88.8% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.13) +15% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12% · Wingers 1.35/g (lg 1.26) +7%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.21) +52% · Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.27) +41% · Fullbacks 0.58/g (lg 0.43) +35%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at WIN Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyrell Sloan | FB | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 6/6g | 14/18g | 46% | — | — |
| 2 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/8g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 3/25g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 6/6g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Setu Tu | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 6/12g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.25 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/8g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $10.50 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $61.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/17g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/15g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 6/24g | 8% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 3/19g | 28% | — | — |
| 13 | Hamish Stewart | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 1/20g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.00 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $61.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| 15 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/37g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | RES | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 5 in 4g | 8/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 52% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/3g | 40% | — | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 3 in 4g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 4/6g | 2/2g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 76% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 2/4g | 30% | — | 🏉 6' 17' |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 7/17g | 1/3g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 61% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Wakeham | HK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Kobe Hetherington | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 4/6g | 2/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 75% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | INT | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 1/3g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.25 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $61.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.50 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $71.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 17 | Simione Laiafi | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1271 · Sea Eagles 1459 · ELO difference: 188 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 765 | 986 | Sea Eagles +222 |
| Backs | 808 | 923 | Sea Eagles +115 |
| Halves | 797 | 983 | Sea Eagles +185 |
| Hooker | 791 | 954 | Sea Eagles +162 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-10 10:21 UTC (latest tip update)