Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 59% probability. The predicted margin of 2.2 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 46, within 0 points. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (289 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 41% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Sea Eagles prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
41%
Sea Eagles
59%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 188-point ELO rating advantage (1459 vs 1271). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 2.2 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.41
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.7%
Line / Spread
Dragons +7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Sea Eagles 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R3L R2026-R4L R2026-R5L older → newer | 13.6 |
Sea Eagles | R2025-R27W R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R4L R2026-R5W | 27.8 |
Avg Conceded
29.0
Dragons
28.4
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
-15.4
Dragons
-0.6
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1744
Dragons
1668
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
2.8
Dragons
4.8
Sea Eagles
Referee Indicator
Favours Sea EaglesAdam Gee
289 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Sea Eagles hold a 11-point edge: 15W–22L (41%) vs Dragons's 10W–23L (30%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Dragons get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Sea Eagles's -0.8. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -2.2
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.