NRL | Round 6

alphr.com.au

SGI
Dragons
VS
MAN
Sea Eagles
WIN STADIUM, WOLLONGONG • FRIDAY 10 APR, 6:00 PM

AI Win Probability

59%Sea EaglesFavourite

Dragons

41%

Sea Eagles

59%

✨

AI Match Overview

Sea Eagles hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 188-point ELO rating advantage (1459 vs 1271). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 2.2 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sea Eagles to Win @1.41

Edge

-8.7%

Line / Spread

Dragons +7.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Sea Eagles 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 49.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Dragons
LLLLL
17.6
Sea Eagles
WWLLL
25.4

Avg Conceded

30.6

Dragons

29.6

Sea Eagles

Avg Margin

-13.0

Dragons

-4.2

Sea Eagles

Run Metres

1505

Dragons

1732

Sea Eagles

Line Breaks

2.5

Dragons

5.7

Sea Eagles

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Sea Eagles
Adam Gee289 games since 2012

Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

SGI
30%10W 23L
MAN
41%15W 22L

Sea Eagles hold a 11‑point edge: 15W–22L (41%) vs Dragons's 10W–23L (30%) across all games Adam Gee has refereed for each side. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Dragons an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

42.7 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Sea Eagles lead 3-2
Sep 2025SGI 24 - 40 MAN
Apr 2025SGI 20 - 18 MAN
Jun 2024SGI 14 - 30 MAN
Mar 2024SGI 20 - 12 MAN
Aug 2023SGI 18 - 24 MAN
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SGI
1271Overall1459
MAN
ELO difference: -188 in favour of Sea Eagles

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

765Forwards986
MAN +222
808Backs923
MAN +115
797Halves983
MAN +185
791Hooker954
MAN +162

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SGI
Stat
MAN
0.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
17.6pts
Avg Score
25.4pts
30.6pts
Avg Conceded
29.6pts
-13.0pts
Avg Margin
-4.2pts
1504.5m
Run Metres
1732.3m
2.5
Line Breaks
5.7
300.0
Tackles
300.0
12.0
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Eagles
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Eagles
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Eagles
4
Halves Control9.0%
Eagles
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Eagles
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Dragons
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

59%

Sea Eagles predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: -2.2

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays
Luke BrooksSea Eagles
halfFair 1.632+ 24%
$4.60
+39.4% edge
Model
61%
Market
22%
Confidence
61%
Emre GulerDragons
forwardFair 2.132+ 13%
$10.50
+37.5% edge
Model
47%
Market
10%
Confidence
47%
Ethan BullemorSea Eagles
benchFair 2.062+ 14%
$6.50
+33.2% edge
Model
49%
Market
15%
Confidence
49%
Corey WaddellSea Eagles
benchFair 2.082+ 14%
$6.25
+32.0% edge
Model
48%
Market
16%
Confidence
48%
Haumole Olakau'atuSea Eagles
forwardFair 1.332+ 40%
$2.02
+25.5% edge
Model
75%
Market
50%
Confidence
75%
Jacob LiddleDragons
benchFair 2.452+ 10%
$6.00
+24.1% edge
Model
41%
Market
17%
Confidence
41%
Tolutau KoulaSea Eagles
backFair 1.312+ 42%
$1.85
+22.0% edge
Model
76%
Market
54%
Confidence
76%
Kyle FlanaganDragons
halfFair 3.142+ 6%
$6.25
+15.9% edge
Model
32%
Market
16%
Confidence
32%
Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays
Emre GulerDragons
forwardFair 8.332+ 13%
$61.00
+10.4% edge
Model
12%
Market
2%
Confidence
12%
Jacob LiddleDragons
benchFair 10.112+ 10%
$61.00
+8.2% edge
Model
10%
Market
2%
Confidence
10%
Setu TuDragons
backFair 6.132+ 21%
$12.00
+8.0% edge
Model
16%
Market
8%
Confidence
16%
Ethan BullemorSea Eagles
benchFair 14.352+ 14%
$71.00
+5.6% edge
Model
7%
Market
1%
Confidence
7%
Corey WaddellSea Eagles
benchFair 14.602+ 14%
$61.00
+5.2% edge
Model
7%
Market
2%
Confidence
7%