Win Probability
AI Game Review
Wests Tigers defied the model's 52% prediction for Knights, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 20 points. The game's 64 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 44. The model went 1/17 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (41 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 14 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Wests Tigers's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Wests Tigers have a 29% win rate under this referee. Wests Tigers's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 59% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
48%
Knights
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Knights a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Wests Tigers are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Knights counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Recent form favours Knights with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 2.5 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Knights to Win @2.23
Lost ✗
Edge
+9.3%
Line / Spread
Knights +3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wests Tigers 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | R2025-R27L R2026-R2W R2026-R3L R2026-R4W R2026-R5W older → newer | 28.4 |
Knights | R2026-R1W R2026-R2W R2026-R3L R2026-R4W R2026-R5W | 26.4 |
Avg Conceded
21.2
Wests Tigers
20.0
Knights
Avg Margin
7.2
Wests Tigers
6.4
Knights
Run Metres
1766
Wests Tigers
1757
Knights
Line Breaks
4.8
Wests Tigers
4.6
Knights
Referee Indicator
Favours Wests TigersWyatt Raymond
41 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
Wests Tigers hold a 9-point edge: 2W–5L (29%) vs Knights's 1W–4L (20%). Games average 50.2 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 59% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Knights).
Avg Total
50.2 pts
Home Win %
59%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Wests Tigers get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Knights's -1.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Knights predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +2.5
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.