# Wests Tigers v Knights — NRL Round 6 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 42 – 22 Knights

_Wests Tigers hunt down Knights._

Half time: 28 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 48% / Knights 52% · Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 12 Apr, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Sunia Turuva (4' 1st), Apisai Koroisau (11'), Sunia Turuva (16' 1st), Patrick Herbert (34'), Jahream Bula (39' Tipped ⚡), Sunia Turuva (55' 1st), Jahream Bula (61' Tipped ⚡), Terrell May (65') · Knights: Dominic Young (28'), Dane Gagai (58'), Fletcher Hunt (76'), Trey Mooney (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 52% | Lost |
| Wests Tigers | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.5 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 6 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Apr 2026, 05:00 pm · Last updated: 12 Apr 2026, 06:22 pm_

Wests Tigers 42–22 Knights in NRL Round 6 at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wests Tigers led 16-0 inside 15 minutes and never looked like giving it back. By half-time it was 28-4, and from there the only question was how far the gap would stretch, not whether it would close. It stretched to 42-22 by full time, and the Knights spent the night chasing a scoreboard that got away from them before they'd worked out what hit them.

Sunia Turuva did the early damage, scoring in the 3rd and again in the 15th, either side of an Apisai Koroisau try in the 11th, and by the time Dominic Young got the Knights on the board in the 27th minute the contest was already decided in all but name. Patrick Herbert and Jahream Bula added tries either side of half-time to push it to 26-4, and Turuva's third in the 54th minute, followed by Bula's second and a Terrell May try inside eleven minutes, took it to 40-10 and put the game well out of reach. The Knights did find some polish late, with Fletcher Hunt and Trey Mooney crossing in the last five minutes, but 42-20 with the clock almost done doesn't change what happened in the first half.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard was saying all night. Wests Tigers ran 2,177 metres to the Knights' 1,313, and made nearly double the post-contact metres, 735 to 416. Ten line breaks to four and 46 tackle busts to 29 tell you the Knights simply couldn't hold their line, and 15 offloads kept the ball alive when it mattered. Possession sat at 57-43 in the home side's favour too, so this wasn't a case of the Knights being starved of the ball and making the most of scraps. They had it plenty. They just couldn't stop what came back at them, missing 46 tackles against the Tigers' 29.

Newcastle did have the edge in a couple of columns, completing at 82% to 76% and out-kicking the Tigers for territory, 607 metres to 421. Fat lot of good it did them. Territory and completion rate mean nothing if the guy with the ball keeps running through your line, and that's exactly what happened here.

It's worth noting the Knights went in rated stronger across the park, forwards 1018 to 970, backs 1013 to 969, halves 1008 to 952. On paper that's a side built to control the middle of the field and dictate through class. On the night, none of it showed up where it counted. Wests Tigers, ranked behind in every one of those positional groups, simply played the better footy.

Alphr's model had this one at Wests Tigers by 2.5 points and a combined total near 44, with the Knights given a 52% chance to win outright. Both calls missed by a distance. The Tigers won by 20, and the 64 points scored came in well above the predicted total. File it under 1 from 17 for this match and move on, because that's the game some nights: the numbers on paper and the numbers on the board don't always shake hands.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 28 | 14 | 42 |
| Knights | 4 | 18 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **57%** | Possession | 43% |
| 76% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| **2,177** | Run metres | 1,313 |
| **735** | Post-contact metres | 416 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **46** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **15** | Offloads | 9 |
| **87.5%** | Effective tackle % | 84.1% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 46 |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 421 | Kick metres | **607** |

**Model Report Card**

Wests Tigers defied the model's 52% prediction for Knights, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 20 points. The game's 64 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 44. The model went 1/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (41 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 14 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Wests Tigers's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Wests Tigers have a 29% win rate under this referee. Wests Tigers's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 59% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 11' Try — Apisai Koroisau (Wests Tigers) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 15' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 27' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 16-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 34' Try — Patrick Herbert (Wests Tigers) — 20-4 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 38' Try — Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers) — 26-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 54' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 32-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 58' Try — Dane Gagai (Knights) — 32-8 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 61' Try — Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers) — 36-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 65' Try — Terrell May (Wests Tigers) — 40-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 76' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 42-14 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 78' Try — Trey Mooney (Knights) — 42-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $2.23 (edge +9.3%) — model probability 52.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wests Tigers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 3 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Wests Tigers and Knights. The model can't split them, landing on Knights at 52%. Form leans Knights' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Wests Tigers.

Knights own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Wests Tigers by 2.5, with the two sides combining for about 44. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Knights have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 12-6 in 2026 Round 17.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 2nd against Knights 3rd.

The market has Wests Tigers favourites, Wests Tigers $1.66 and Knights $2.23, with the line at Wests Tigers -3.5 and the total at 49.5.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: home sides win 59% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 2 · Knights 8 |
| Last meeting | Knights 12-6 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Knights last 4 | WWWL · 72 for, 53 against |
| Knights away | 9-7 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 2nd · Knights 3rd |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Knights 100% |
| Market | Wests Tigers $1.66 · Knights $2.23 |
| Line | Wests Tigers -3.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Wests Tigers

**Wyatt Raymond** — 41 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 2W–5L | 29% |
| Knights | 1W–4L | 20% |

Avg total: 50.2 pts · Home win %: 59% · Home bias: Leans home

Wests Tigers hold a 9-point edge: 2W–5L (29%) vs Knights's 1W–4L (20%). Games average 50.2 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 59% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Knights).

Wests Tigers get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Knights's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 28.4pts | Avg Score | 26.4pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| 7.2pts | Avg Margin | 6.4pts |
| 1766.2m | Run Metres | 1756.6m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 319.0 | Tackles | 348.4 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | R27 L · R2 W · R3 L · R4 W · R5 W | 28.4 |
| Knights | R1 W · R2 W · R3 L · R4 W · R5 W | 26.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Knights | 12 – 6 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R6 | Knights | 4 – 20 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R1 | Wests Tigers | 8 – 10 | Knights |
| 2024 | R23 | Knights | 34 – 18 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R10 | Wests Tigers | 14 – 20 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the middle: NRL's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 11th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Doueihi, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 8th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Young, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.25/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.4/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.75/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.8/g (att 8th) · concedes 2/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 8th) | 1.6/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.2/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 0 | 3 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 267m/g | 175m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.8/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.6% | 83.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 10 | 16 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 2.4/g |
| Run Metres | 749m/g | 767m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.5/g | 23.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.6% | 83% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 2 | 2 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 518m/g | 533m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.3/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.2% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.21) +57% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.16) +25%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.62/g (lg 0.43) +44% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.16) +44% · Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.27) +37%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Campbelltown Sports Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 4/4g | 2/9g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' 61' |
| 3 | Sunia Turuva | CE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/4g | 30% | — | 🏉 4' 16' 55' |
| 4 | Heamasi Makasini | WG | 1 in 4g | 2/5g (1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 1 in 4g | 7/10g (2·0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.81 AI 76% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jock Madden | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/4g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.70 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | HB | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/11g | 3/10g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 67% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 6% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 4/13g | 12% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/9g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 1/24g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Latu Fainu | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Royce Hunt | INT | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/17g | 12% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Hunt | FB | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 41% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 8 in 5g | 9/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·3·2) | 7/6g | 0/1g | 56% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/23g | 1/4g | 10% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 4 | Wilson De Courcey | CE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 5 in 5g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·2) | 3/6g | 1/1g | 44% | 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 2 in 3g | 10/10g (3·1·0·1·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 6/3g | 1/1g | 59% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 29% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 9% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.75 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $81.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 9/22g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1489 · Knights 1478 · ELO difference: 11 in favour of Wests Tigers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 970 | 1018 | Knights +48 |
| Backs | 969 | 1013 | Knights +44 |
| Halves | 952 | 1008 | Knights +56 |
| Hooker | 955 | 948 | Wests Tigers +7 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Knights |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Knights |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Knights predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-12 08:22 UTC (latest tip update)