Win Probability
AI Game Review
Bulldogs defied the model's 69% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.4 but the actual margin was 16 points. Total score prediction of 51 was close to the actual 48, within 3 points. Bulldogs led 16–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 4/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The over 47.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (361 career games). The combined score of 48 points was 6 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Bulldogs bucked the trend, Panthers historically win 53% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Bulldogs's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
31%
Panthers
69%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Bulldogs. The model sees Panthers ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 283-point ELO rating advantage (1729 vs 1447). Recent form favours Panthers with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Panthers by 6.4 points with a combined total of 51.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.14
Lost ✗
Edge
-14.1%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +16.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Panthers 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | R2025-R29L R2026-R1W R2026-R3W R2026-R4L R2026-R5L older → newer | 19.0 |
Panthers | R2026-R1W R2026-R2W R2026-R3W R2026-R4W R2026-R5W | 38.0 |
Avg Conceded
25.2
Bulldogs
8.0
Panthers
Avg Margin
-6.2
Bulldogs
30.0
Panthers
Run Metres
1832
Bulldogs
1811
Panthers
Line Breaks
4.8
Bulldogs
6.2
Panthers
Referee Indicator
Favours PanthersGerard Sutton
361 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Panthers have won 32 of 60 games (53%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 14 from 39 (36%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Panthers get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Bulldogs's -0.6. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Panthers predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 51 · Line: -6.4
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.