AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
31%
Panthers
69%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Bulldogs. The model sees Panthers ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 283-point ELO rating advantage (1729 vs 1447). Recent form favours Panthers with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Panthers by 6.4 points with a combined total of 51.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.14
Edge
-14.1%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +16.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Panthers 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 47.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | WWLLL | 18.2 |
Panthers | WWWWL | 30.8 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Bulldogs
9.2
Panthers
Avg Margin
-5.8
Bulldogs
21.6
Panthers
Run Metres
1907
Bulldogs
1832
Panthers
Line Breaks
5.0
Bulldogs
2.5
Panthers
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Panthers have won 32 of 60 games (53%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 14 from 39 (36%). That's a 17‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Bulldogs an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Panthers predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 51 · Line: -6.4
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.