# Essendon v North Melbourne — AFL Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Essendon 65 – 62 North Melbourne

_Essendon scrape past North Melbourne in a tight one._

Half time: 47 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Essendon 67% / North Melbourne 33% · Marvel Stadium · Thu, 01 May, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Essendon: Kyle Langford (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Archie Perkins (7' ×2), Nic Martin (20' Tipped ⚡), Ben Hobbs (25'), Nate Caddy (28' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Isaac Kako (66') · North Melbourne: Cameron Zurhaar (11' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Finnbar Maley (17' Tipped ⚡), Jy Simpkin (39' ×2), Colby McKercher (69'), Nick Larkey (73' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Zane Duursma (82')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 67% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.5 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Essendon 65–62 North Melbourne in AFL Round 8 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Essendon 65, North Melbourne 62 at Marvel Stadium. The model had Essendon at 67 percent, tipped the margin at 12.5 and the combined score at 157. That's a clean sweep on the picks that matter, but the shape of the result tells a different story: final margin 3, final total 127. Essendon covered the tip. The game itself had other ideas.

The early running explains why the model liked Essendon in the first place. They led 37-15 at quarter time and stretched it to 47-22 by half time, a gap built on the sort of advantages the pre-match ratings flagged. Essendon went in rated stronger everywhere: 1026 to 882 in forwards, 1038 to 947 in the ruck, 983 to 881 through the midfield, 967 to 906 in defence. Early on, that class showed. A 25-point buffer at the main break looked like exactly the kind of scoreline that ends in a percentage-padding blowout, not a three-point squeaker.

It didn't stay that way. North Melbourne clawed back almost all of it in the third quarter, cutting the margin to a single point, 55-54, at three-quarter time. From a 25-point deficit at half time to trailing by one at the last change is as complete a form reversal as you'll see in a quarter, and it's where the model's neat pre-match read started to unravel. Essendon then had to hold on rather than cruise, and they did, adding 10 to North Melbourne's 8 in the last to get home by 3.

The competing numbers explain the tug of war. North Melbourne dominated the ruck, 41 hit-outs to 26, and used that platform to win the clearance count 34 to 30. They also got the ball forward more often, going inside 50 46 times to Essendon's 41. On raw output, this was North Melbourne's game to win.

Essendon's method was different but it added up. They had more of the footy overall, 368 disposals to 338, more contested possessions (127 to 122), more marks (90 to 77) and more marks inside 50 (13 to 11). They tackled harder too, 68 to 61, and won the intercept battle 62 to 56. North Melbourne were more efficient with what they had, converting at 75.0% to Essendon's 72.8%, which goes a long way to explaining how they stayed inside touching distance despite fewer disposals and fewer intercepts.

None of this was supposed to be close. Essendon came in having won 3.1 of their last 5 by the model's weighting, averaging 96.7 points scored and 86.7 conceded. North Melbourne's recent form read better on paper, 3.8 wins from 5, 108.3 scored and just 69.7 conceded, with an average winning margin of 4.6 points compared to Essendon's -8.4. On that form line North Melbourne arguably deserved to be nearer the favourites than a 33 percent underdog, and the way the last two quarters played out backs that up.

So the model got the winner right and the shape wrong. It expected quality to tell in a canter; instead it told in patches, disappeared for a term, and had to be defended in the last. Essendon's marking and disposal edge carried them home, but North Melbourne's ruck and clearance dominance made sure it went to the wire. A 30-point undershoot on the combined total, 127 against a projected 157, suggests this was tighter and scrappier than either side's underlying numbers promised.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 37 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 65 |
| North Melbourne | 15 | 7 | 32 | 8 | 62 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Essendon | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| **368** | Disposals | 338 |
| **127** | Contested poss. | 122 |
| 30 | Clearances | **34** |
| 41 | Inside 50s | **46** |
| **90** | Marks | 77 |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **68** | Tackles | 61 |
| 26 | Hit-outs | **41** |
| **62** | Intercepts | 56 |
| 72.8% | Disposal eff. | **75.0%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Essendon to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 12.5 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 127 points came in 30 points lower than the predicted 157. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $1.33 (edge -8.1%) — model probability 67.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon -20.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 13 · Predicted total: 157

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Essendon | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 34 · 61 | 57 · 77 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 96/g | 87/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.5/g | 12.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 5/g | 6.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.2% | 70.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Essendon | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 30 · 15 | 16 · 28 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 153/g | 138/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.8/g | 19.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.8% | 76.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Essendon | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 9 | 17 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposals | 132/g | 146/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.5/g | 14.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.7% | 79.2% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.72/g (lg 0.51) +41% · Defenders 1.77/g (lg 1.32) +34% · Forwards 5.85/g (lg 4.45) +31%
**Who scores on Essendon** — Forwards 5.12/g (lg 4.45) +15% · Defenders 1.5/g (lg 1.32) +14% · Key Forwards 3.9/g (lg 3.61) +8%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 8 in 2g | 15/10g (0·1·0·2·2·2·0·0·6·2) | 22/10g | 73/33g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 83% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 6 in 6g | 10/10g (1·3·0·0·0·0·2·2·0·2) | 0/0g | 9/6g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' 85' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 6 in 6g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·2·4·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 28/82g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 5 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·1) | 6/6g | 22/28g | 38% | — | 🏉 7' 58' |
| – | Jye Menzie | FWD | 5 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·4·0·0) | 3/3g | 10/16g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 4 in 6g | 4/6g (1·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 4 in 6g | 8/10g (3·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 9/12g | 77/87g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | 4 in 6g | 10/10g (2·0·3·1·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 5/4g | 25/26g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/4g | 2/20g | 26% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 3 in 2g | 15/10g (2·2·2·0·2·0·1·3·2·1) | 17/11g | 64/51g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (2·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/4g | 9/15g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Jones | DEF | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/3g | 24/20g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 11/43g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/5g | 10/27g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 8/56g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/32g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Tsatas | MID | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/3g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/25g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 60/127g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/13g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 18 in 7g | 20/10g (1·1·0·5·3·4·2·2·1·1) | 11/8g | 117/55g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' 77' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 11 in 7g | 12/10g (0·0·1·1·4·1·1·1·1·2) | 17/9g | 83/58g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' 88' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 7 in 7g | 10/10g (1·0·2·1·2·1·0·2·0·1) | 28/15g | 58/36g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 6 in 7g | 9/10g (0·0·3·0·1·0·2·0·2·1) | 14/17g | 34/36g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 5 in 7g | 5/7g (0·1·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 57% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 5 in 7g | 8/10g (0·0·3·1·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/10g | 28/74g | 46% | — | 🏉 39' 82' |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/12g | 18% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 21/50g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 13/36g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 3 in 3g | 9/10g (2·0·1·1·2·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/1g | 2/7g | 54% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Bailey Scott | MID | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 16/44g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 11/28g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/16g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 1 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 8/24g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 30/92g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/17g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Finnbar Maley | KF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $18.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| – | Jackson Archer | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kallan Dawson | DEF | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 11/98g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Will Phillips | MID | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/20g | 14% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 28.5 | $1.97 | 51% | 35 ✗ |
| Nic Martin | 23.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 21 ✓ |
| Sam Durham ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 25 ✗ |
| Will Setterfield | 20.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 21 ✗ |
| Andrew McGrath | 20.5 | $1.90 | 45% | 18 ✓ |
| Elijah Tsatas ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.86 | 93% | 16 ✓ |
| Jordan Ridley | 19.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 9 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 19.5 | $1.78 | 48% | 21 ✗ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 30.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 32 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 25.5 | $1.70 | 53% | 23 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 25.5 | $1.58 | 59% | 28 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 23.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 21 ✓ |
| Luke Parker ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 20 ✓ |
| Tom Powell ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 28 ✗ |
| Tristan Xerri | 18.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 25 ✗ |
| Colby McKercher | 17.5 | $1.90 | 46% | 11 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)