AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 90% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 43.4 but the actual margin was 90 points. Western Bulldogs led 51–25 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 90. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
90%
Port Adelaide
10%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 90%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 84-point ELO rating advantage (1609 vs 1525). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 43.4 points with a combined total of 185.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.3%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -21.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.3%
Total Points
Over 173.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | W W L L L | 96.2 |
Port Adelaide | W L L L L | 72.8 |
Avg Conceded
86.1
Western Bulldogs
87.1
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
0.5
Western Bulldogs
12.0
Port Adelaide
Disposals
377.4
Western Bulldogs
360.7
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
43.3
Western Bulldogs
51.9
Port Adelaide
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
90%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 43 points
Predicted total: 185 · Line: +43.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.11
Team Effectiveness
+0.25
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.