# Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 131 – 41 Port Adelaide

_Western Bulldogs muzzle Port Adelaide._

Half time: 51 – 25 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 90% / Port Adelaide 10% · Mars Stadium · Sat, 03 May, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Buku Khamis (18' ×2 1st), Rhylee West (22' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ryley Sanders (42'), Aaron Naughton (45' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Luke Cleary (51'), Tim English (69' ×3), Ed Richards (73'), Joel Freijah (81'), Marcus Bontempelli (83' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Lachlan McNeil (72'), Adam Treloar (87') · Port Adelaide: Willie Rioli (19' Tipped ⚡), Jordon Sweet (55'), Mitch Georgiades (75' Tipped ⚡), Sam Powell-Pepper (80' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 90% | Won |
| Port Adelaide | 10% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 43.4 predicted → 90 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Western Bulldogs 131–41 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 8 at Mars Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Western Bulldogs beat Port Adelaide 131-41 at Mars Stadium, a 90-point demolition. Here's the complication: at quarter time Port Adelaide were actually up, 16-13. For about twenty minutes this looked like a contest.

It wasn't one for long, but strip out the final scoreline and a couple of numbers still don't fit the story of a total flogging. Port Adelaide won the hit-out count 55-35 and out-tackled the Bulldogs 65-57. Two of the game's traditional effort indicators went the way of the team that lost by 90 points. On paper it shouldn't have been that close in the ruck either. The Bulldogs went in rated 1145 to Port's 966 there, the biggest gap of any position group, and still lost that battle on the day.

None of it mattered because the Bulldogs turned pressure into scoreboard pressure everywhere else. Half time had it 51-25, three-quarter time 96-38, then the Bulldogs piled on another 35 to Port's 3 in the last quarter to close it out at 131-41. Whatever Port were doing at the stoppages, the Bulldogs were doing more with the footy once they had it.

That's the disposal count in a nutshell: 415 to 305, with the Bulldogs hitting targets at 75.9% against Port's 69.0%. Clearances went 49-35 the Bulldogs' way too, so even conceding the ruck battle, the midfield use of it flowed the home side's way.

Forward of centre it only got more lopsided. Sixty-seven inside 50s to 41, and once there the Bulldogs were clinical: 15 marks inside 50 to Port's 8, and 87 marks overall to 57. Contested possessions were closer than the final margin suggests, 147 to 131, and intercepts weren't far off either, 60 to 55. Everything downstream of the contest, the entries, the marks, the conversion, belonged to the Bulldogs.

The pre-match numbers flagged plenty of this without predicting the size of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 13 | 38 | 45 | 35 | 131 |
| Port Adelaide | 16 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 41 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **415** | Disposals | 305 |
| **147** | Contested poss. | 131 |
| **49** | Clearances | 35 |
| **67** | Inside 50s | 41 |
| **87** | Marks | 57 |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| 57 | Tackles | **65** |
| 35 | Hit-outs | **55** |
| **60** | Intercepts | 55 |
| **75.9%** | Disposal eff. | 69.0% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 90% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 43.4 but the actual margin was 90 points. Western Bulldogs led 51–25 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 90. The model went 2/3 on this match. Western Bulldogs covered the 21.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.30 (edge +13.3%) — model probability 90.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -21.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 43 · Predicted total: 185

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 54 · 68 | 59 · 60 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 5.6/g |
| Disposals | 90/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.3/g | 19.1/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.7/g | 9.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.9% | 70.3% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 35 · 13 | 20 · 16 |
| Goal Assists | 6/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 176/g | 145/g |
| Inside 50s | 31.6/g | 23.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3/g | 2.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.1% | 71.3% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Western Bulldogs | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 11 · 7 | 11 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 105/g | 104/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.7/g | 10.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.6% | 78.4% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.53/g (lg 1.32) +16% · Forwards 4.5/g (lg 4.45) +1% · Key Forwards 3.41/g (lg 3.61) -6%
**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.37) +2% · Key Forwards 3.35/g (lg 3.61) -7% · Forwards 4.04/g (lg 4.45) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Mars Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 12 in 7g | 19/10g (2·2·3·3·0·1·1·3·3·1) | 14/9g | 18/12g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' 63' 93' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 10 in 7g | 10/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·3·3) | 3/2g | 2/5g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' 94' |
| – | James Harmes | MID | 7 in 6g | 10/10g (2·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·4) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 7 in 6g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·1·1·1·1) | 3/3g | 2/5g | 44% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 7 in 7g | 9/10g (2·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·2) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 7 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·2·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 42' |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 30% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 5 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·3·1·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/4g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 3 in 7g | 7/10g (2·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/7g | 4/9g | 34% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/13g | 5/10g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 12/11g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/12g | 5/10g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Jason Johannisen | DEF | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/11g | 4/10g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 2 in 2g | 10/10g (1·0·1·2·2·0·1·1·2·0) | 15/14g | 11/12g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' 87' 83' |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 12/11g | 1/3g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 18' 39' |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/7g | 8/8g | 42% | — | 🏉 69' 90' 75' |
| – | Adam Treloar | FWD | no games | 9/10g (2·0·0·3·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 8/16g | 5/6g | 52% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Jedd Busslinger | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 51' |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 17 in 7g | 22/10g (1·3·1·0·4·2·3·3·3·2) | 7/5g | 0/0g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 11 in 7g | 15/10g (1·2·1·1·3·0·0·3·3·1) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $16.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 19' |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | 9 in 7g | 12/10g (0·2·1·0·3·0·1·2·2·1) | 7/9g | 0/2g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 8 in 6g | 11/10g (1·0·2·0·1·1·2·0·1·3) | 3/13g | 0/2g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 7 in 7g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·3·0·0·1) | 5/4g | 0/0g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | 7 in 4g | 13/10g (0·2·1·1·1·1·3·1·1·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 85% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 73% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 6 in 7g | 10/10g (1·1·2·0·2·0·0·2·1·1) | 5/9g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $2.20 AI 60% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 6 in 6g | 9/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/16g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Finlayson | KF | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 9/8g | 1/1g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Logan Evans | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Will Lorenz | DEF | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Liberatore | 27.5 | $1.82 | 62% | 19 ✓ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 25.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 23 ✓ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.85 | 66% | 30 ✗ |
| Bailey Dale | 24.5 | $1.94 | 61% | 31 ✗ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 21.5 | $1.80 | 59% | 26 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.78 | 67% | 19 ✓ |
| Ryley Sanders | 20.5 | $1.91 | 57% | 17 ✓ |
| Bailey Williams | 19.5 | $1.78 | 55% | 21 ✗ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.85 | 68% | 24 ✓ |
| Connor Rozee ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.87 | 71% | 29 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines | 25.5 | $1.81 | 55% | 22 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 68% | 22 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 19.5 | $1.90 | 45% | 21 ✗ |
| Kane Farrell | 19.5 | $1.96 | 56% | 15 ✓ |
| Willem Drew | 17.5 | $1.94 | 47% | 16 ✓ |
| Logan Evans ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.86 | 66% | 14 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r8-western-bulldogs-v-port-adelaide
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)