AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.2 but the actual margin was 14 points. Sydney Swans led 41–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 171.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
65%
GWS GIANTS
35%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over GWS GIANTS. GWS GIANTS are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Sydney Swans counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for GWS GIANTS. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 2.2 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @2.18
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.7%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS +5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+18.7%
Total Points
Under 171.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W W W W L | 71.4 |
GWS GIANTS | W L L L L | 102.2 |
Avg Conceded
74.7
Sydney Swans
96.0
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
19.0
Sydney Swans
19.0
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
358.0
Sydney Swans
332.2
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
47.9
Sydney Swans
57.4
GWS GIANTS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: -2.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.03
Team Effectiveness
+0.02
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.