# Sydney Swans v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 87 – 73 GWS GIANTS

_Sydney Swans sail past GWS GIANTS._

Half time: 41 – 35 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 65% / GWS GIANTS 35% · SCG · Sun, 04 May, 01:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Isaac Heeney (2' 1st Tipped ⚡), Caiden Cleary (6'), James Rowbottom (9'), Hayden McLean (13' Tipped ⚡), Will Hayward (17' Tipped ⚡), Nick Blakey (39'), Aaron Francis (68'), Corey Warner (85' Tipped ⚡), James Jordon (66' ×2), Joel Hamling (81'), Angus Sheldrick (91') · GWS GIANTS: Darcy Jones (21'), Aaron Cadman (23' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jacob Wehr (47'), Callan Ward (53'), Jesse Hogan (77' Tipped ⚡), Jake Stringer (68' ×3), Tom Green (93')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 65% | Won |
| GWS GIANTS | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.2 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs GWS GIANTS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Sydney Swans 87–73 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 8 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sydney Swans led from the opening bounce and never gave it back, though GWS Giants made them sweat for a stretch in the second quarter before Sydney restored the buffer for keeps. Final score 87-73 at the SCG, and the shape of that scoreboard tells you plenty about how the four quarters actually played out.

The start was one-sided. Sydney rushed out to a 34-13 lead at the first change, the kind of margin that should have put the game away there and then. It didn't. GWS hit back with 22 points to Sydney's 7 in the second term, cutting the margin from 21 points down to just 6 at half time, 41-35. That's a genuine gut-check for the home side, and for a few minutes either side of the main break this looked like it might get away from them.

It didn't get away from them. Sydney answered in the third quarter, outscoring GWS 17-9 to push the margin back out to 14 points at the last change, 58-44. From there both sides matched each other stride for stride, 29 points apiece in the final term, and the gap that Sydney built in that third quarter held all the way to the siren.

The disposal count tells a strange story on its own. GWS finished with 369 disposals to Sydney's 316, and won the contested ball comfortably, 143 to 112, with the edge in clearances too, 38 to 35. By raw volume, this should have been a Giants win. It wasn't, because Sydney did far more with less. Their disposal efficiency of 74.0% against GWS's 70.3% meant the footy stuck when it mattered, and nowhere was that clearer than inside 50, where Sydney kept taking marks, 16 of them to GWS's 9, while inside 50 entries were dead level at 54 apiece. Sydney also out-tackled the visitors 56 to 49, which fits a side that had to defend its lead rather than chase the game.

None of that lines up with what the ratings said coming in.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 34 | 7 | 17 | 29 | 87 |
| GWS GIANTS | 13 | 22 | 9 | 29 | 73 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 316 | Disposals | **369** |
| 112 | Contested poss. | **143** |
| 35 | Clearances | **38** |
| 54 | Inside 50s | 54 |
| **81** | Marks | 79 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **56** | Tackles | 49 |
| 37 | Hit-outs | **38** |
| 61 | Intercepts | 61 |
| **74.0%** | Disposal eff. | 70.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.2 but the actual margin was 14 points. Sydney Swans led 41–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 171.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $2.18 (edge +18.7%) — model probability 64.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.7%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 2 · Predicted total: 168

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sydney Swans lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | GWS GIANTS | 88 – 139 | Sydney Swans |
| 2026 | R6 | Sydney Swans | 107 – 66 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2025 | R20 | GWS GIANTS | 102 – 58 | Sydney Swans |
| 2024 | WF | Sydney Swans | 88 – 82 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2024 | R15 | GWS GIANTS | 75 – 102 | Sydney Swans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 52 · 62 | 67 · 38 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 4.7/g |
| Disposals | 117/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 17.7/g | 20.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.9/g | 9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.7% | 66.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 24 · 16 | 18 · 24 |
| Goal Assists | 2.9/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 127/g | 152/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.6/g | 20.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.2% | 70.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 11 | 2 · 8 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 134/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.9/g | 9.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.6% | 81.8% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.51) +4% · Defenders 1.26/g (lg 1.32) -5% · Forwards 4.12/g (lg 4.45) -7%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.63/g (lg 0.51) +24% · Forwards 4.46/g (lg 4.45) +0% · Midfielders 2.21/g (lg 2.38) -7%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 10 in 7g | 13/10g (2·0·1·1·1·1·4·1·2·0) | 22/15g | 89/73g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 9 in 7g | 12/10g (0·2·1·2·2·1·2·0·0·2) | 5/8g | 41/45g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 60% ✗ No goal | 🏉 85' |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 9 in 5g | 11/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·1·3·2·1) | 10/8g | 37/33g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 7 in 7g | 13/10g (3·2·1·0·2·0·0·2·2·1) | 28/21g | 118/93g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 6 in 7g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·2) | 2/6g | 9/36g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 31% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 6/12g | 21/57g | 16% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Aaron Francis | KF | 3 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 1/6g | 4/15g | 16% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Angus Sheldrick | MID | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 35% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/12g | 20/52g | 28% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 17/59g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/23g | 18/111g | 20% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/6g | 7/17g | 22% | — | 🏉 66' 79' |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/17g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 20/79g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 3/21g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 0 in 4g | 2/9g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/4g | 22% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/22g | 6/111g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 0% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 16/42g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/43g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 16/28g | 34% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 17 in 4g | 41/10g (5·3·6·2·3·5·4·9·2·2) | 19/11g | 9/5g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.62 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 16 in 7g | 21/10g (2·0·3·1·3·2·3·5·0·2) | 36/22g | 17/10g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 7 in 7g | 13/10g (2·3·1·0·2·1·1·2·0·1) | 6/3g | 6/3g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' 42' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 6 in 7g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 2/2g | 2/2g | 61% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2) | 2/5g | 1/2g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 0/5g | 42% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Callan Ward | MID | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 15/26g | 7/11g | 34% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 3 in 3g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 49% | — | — |
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 3 in 5g | 12/10g (1·4·1·1·2·0·0·2·1·0) | 29/15g | 15/7g | 78% | — | 🏉 68' 86' 89' |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 2/3g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 17% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 3/4g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 19/16g | 7/8g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joe Fonti | DEF | no games | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josaia Delana | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.72 AI 55% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/24g | 4/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 40% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Roberts ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 70% | 25 ✗ |
| Isaac Heeney | 22.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 22 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 21.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 24 ✗ |
| Jake Lloyd | 21.5 | $1.88 | 50% | 15 ✓ |
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 98% | 10 ✓ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 14 ✓ |
| Nick Blakey | 19.5 | $1.55 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Riley Bice | 19.5 | $1.90 | 62% | 12 ✓ |
| Brodie Grundy ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.85 | 70% | 8 ✓ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green | 29.5 | $1.88 | 49% | 34 ✗ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.91 | 75% | 29 ✗ |
| Lachie Whitfield | 26.5 | $1.88 | 48% | 28 ✗ |
| Finn Callaghan ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.80 | 66% | 33 ✗ |
| Connor Idun ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.90 | 72% | 22 ✗ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.94 | 62% | 17 ✓ |
| Jacob Wehr ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.99 | 68% | 17 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 16.5 | $1.78 | 52% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)