AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 98% probability. The predicted margin of 73.1 was reasonable against the actual 65-point result. The game's 153 points came in 55 points lower than the predicted 208. Hawthorn led 50–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 65. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
98%
Richmond
2%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Hawthorn carry a 41-point ELO rating advantage (1525 vs 1484). Recent form favours Richmond with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 73.1 points with a combined total of 208.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.06
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.7%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.7%
Total Points
Over 179.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | W L L L L | 99.0 |
Richmond | W W L L L | 88.5 |
Avg Conceded
94.9
Hawthorn
74.3
Richmond
Avg Margin
-4.1
Hawthorn
25.4
Richmond
Disposals
366.1
Hawthorn
349.2
Richmond
Inside 50s
48.8
Hawthorn
49.8
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 73 points
Predicted total: 208 · Line: +73.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.50
Team Effectiveness
+0.57
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.