# Hawthorn v Richmond — AFL Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 109 – 44 Richmond

_Hawthorn demolish Richmond._

Half time: 50 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 98% / Richmond 2% · MCG · Sun, 04 May, 03:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Luke Breust (11' 1st Tipped ⚡), Finn Maginness (25'), James Sicily (38'), Mabior Chol (47' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Gunston (57' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Nick Watson (59' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Josh Weddle (65'), Massimo DAmbrosio (67' ×2) · Richmond: Seth Campbell (52'), Jonty Faull (54'), Rhyan Mansell (62'), Steely Green (75'), Tom Brown (85'), James Trezise (88')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 98% | Won |
| Richmond | 2% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 73.1 predicted → 65 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn vs Richmond Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 8, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Hawthorn 109–44 Richmond in AFL Round 8 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hawthorn led by 14 points at quarter time, 34 at the main break, 49 at three-quarter time and 65 at the final siren. The margin never went the other way. It just kept growing, quarter after quarter, until Richmond were chasing a scoreboard that had stopped listening to them.

Final score: Hawthorn 109, Richmond 44. By three-quarter time it was 77-28, and the last quarter simply confirmed what had already been decided. Quarter time was 17-3, half time 50-16. Richmond scored 25 points across the entire second half combined. That's the shape of the afternoon: Hawthorn adding roughly 25 to 27 points a quarter, Richmond never getting out of single figures until the last term.

It's worth pausing on how odd this result looks next to the formline. Richmond arrived with a better last-five record than Hawthorn and an average margin of plus-25.4 points, against Hawthorn sitting at minus-4.1 and conceding an average of nearly 95 a game. None of that history showed up at the MCG. Whatever Richmond had been doing right in recent weeks, it didn't survive contact with this Hawthorn side.

Start at the source: hit-outs. Hawthorn won that battle 39 to 29, and it fed straight into 29 clearances to Richmond's 22. First use of the footy is one thing, but Hawthorn turned it into sustained control. They finished with 117 contested possessions to 84 and piled up 428 disposals to Richmond's 311, more than a hundred extra touches. When they had it, they used it better too, hitting targets at 81.2% compared to Richmond's 75.4%. Volume and cleanliness both went Hawthorn's way, which is about as complete a midfield performance as you'll see.

That dominance up the middle showed up forward of centre. Hawthorn went inside 50 51 times to 42, a modest gap on paper, but they made every entry count: 21 marks inside 50 against Richmond's 13. Marks across the ground told the same story, 120 to 94. Richmond weren't so much losing the ball as watching it sail past them into a teammate's hands.

Defensively, the numbers cut against expectation. Richmond had come in rated the stronger defensive unit, 1023 to Hawthorn's 972, yet it was Hawthorn who read the play better all day

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 17 | 33 | 27 | 32 | 109 |
| Richmond | 3 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 44 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **428** | Disposals | 311 |
| **117** | Contested poss. | 84 |
| **29** | Clearances | 22 |
| **51** | Inside 50s | 42 |
| **120** | Marks | 94 |
| **21** | Marks inside 50 | 13 |
| 46 | Tackles | 46 |
| **39** | Hit-outs | 29 |
| **61** | Intercepts | 51 |
| **81.2%** | Disposal eff. | 75.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 98% probability. The predicted margin of 73.1 was reasonable against the actual 65-point result. The game's 153 points came in 55 points lower than the predicted 208. Hawthorn led 50–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 65. The model went 2/3 on this match. Hawthorn covered the 47.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.06 (edge +3.7%) — model probability 98.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 73 · Predicted total: 208

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 59 · 52 | 47 · 66 |
| Goal Assists | 3.9/g | 3.6/g |
| Disposals | 84/g | 74/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.7/g | 13.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.7/g | 5.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.3% | 65.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 21 · 19 | 15 · 27 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 2/g |
| Disposals | 151/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.9/g | 17.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.7% | 70.2% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 16 · 10 | 8 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 3.1/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposals | 129/g | 140/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.9/g | 10.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.7% | 79.2% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.7/g (lg 3.6) +31% · Midfielders 2.72/g (lg 2.35) +16% · Rucks 0.55/g (lg 0.51) +8%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.55/g (lg 1.31) +18% · Key Forwards 3.69/g (lg 3.6) +2% · Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.35) +1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 17 in 5g | 27/10g (3·5·1·1·0·2·2·6·3·4) | 23/14g | 209/111g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 94% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' 81' 79' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 13 in 7g | 17/10g (3·0·1·1·2·3·0·1·3·3) | 8/4g | 30/25g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' 82' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 9 in 7g | 19/10g (3·4·3·0·3·2·1·0·2·1) | 4/2g | 20/11g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' 70' 88' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 8 in 7g | 13/10g (4·0·1·2·3·1·1·0·0·1) | 5/7g | 45/44g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 7 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·2·2·1·0·1·1) | 0/12g | 11/69g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 5 in 5g | 10/10g (0·0·3·2·0·1·1·0·1·2) | 1/5g | 22/30g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 5 in 7g | 8/10g (2·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 5/11g | 30/71g | 30% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/17g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 4 in 6g | 9/10g (0·2·1·2·0·2·0·0·0·2) | 4/3g | 53/40g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 69% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/6g | 11/33g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 7/20g | 32% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Finn Maginness | FWD | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/21g | 24% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 9/44g | 22% | — | — |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/9g | 20/51g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/21g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Luke Breust | FWD | 1 in 3g | 9/10g (2·1·2·0·2·0·1·0·1·0) | 33/17g | 247/130g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 5/18g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Changkuoth Jiath | DEF | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/20g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Henry Hustwaite | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/7g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 14/59g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 3/16g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 11 in 7g | 11/10g (0·0·0·2·2·3·2·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 7/15g | 47% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 9 in 6g | 15/10g (2·1·3·0·1·1·1·1·2·3) | 36/16g | 145/62g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 79% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 7 in 6g | 7/6g (2·1·0·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 5/3g | 83% | — | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 6/6g | 48% | — | 🏉 75' |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 4/8g | 25/40g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 7/40g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 7/13g | 30/105g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 3 in 3g | 10/10g (0·2·1·2·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 2/2g | 16/24g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 25/83g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 2 in 4g | 9/10g (3·0·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 20/33g | 60% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/16g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 2 in 7g | 6/10g (0·3·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/13g | 22% | — | 🏉 85' |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 7/27g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 7/30g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 17/97g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | 🏉 54' |
| – | Thomson Dow | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/20g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 7/30g | 10% | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/83g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 16/131g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Noah Balta | DEF | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 4/7g | 24/49g | 22% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 27.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 27 ✓ |
| James Worpel | 24.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 18 ✓ |
| Henry Hustwaite ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.83 | 100% | 19 ✓ |
| Josh Ward | 21.5 | $1.80 | 58% | 19 ✓ |
| James Sicily | 20.5 | $1.95 | 36% | 24 ✗ |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | 18.5 | $1.82 | 36% | 30 ✗ |
| Dylan Moore | 18.5 | $1.95 | 56% | 11 ✓ |
| Harry Morrison | 18.5 | $1.94 | 46% | 20 ✗ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | 25.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 26 ✗ |
| Jacob Hopper | 25.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 28 ✗ |
| Jayden Short | 22.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 15 ✓ |
| Thomson Dow ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 18 ✓ |
| Nick Vlastuin ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.80 | 67% | 20 ✓ |
| Jack Ross | 17.5 | $1.78 | 52% | 13 ✓ |
| Sam Banks ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 15 ✓ |
| Luke Trainor ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.96 | 72% | 21 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)