AI Game Review
St Kilda defied the model's 85% prediction for Fremantle — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 27.1 but the actual margin was 61 points. The game's 127 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 151. St Kilda led 27–7 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 61. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 170.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
15%
Fremantle
85%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 85%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Fremantle carry a 135-point ELO rating advantage (1540 vs 1405). Recent form favours Fremantle with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 27.1 points with a combined total of 151.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.50
Lost ✗
Edge
+18.6%
Line / Spread
Fremantle +10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+18.6%
Total Points
Under 170.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | WWLLL | 87.0 |
Fremantle | WWWWL | 98.6 |
Avg Conceded
96.0
St Kilda
74.0
Fremantle
Avg Margin
-9.0
St Kilda
24.6
Fremantle
Disposals
362.2
St Kilda
346.6
Fremantle
Inside 50s
50.0
St Kilda
50.0
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
85%
Fremantle predicted to win by 27 points
Predicted total: 151 · Line: -27.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.16
Team Effectiveness
+0.12
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.