# St Kilda v Fremantle — AFL Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 94 – 33 Fremantle

_St Kilda put Fremantle to the sword._

Half time: 27 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 15% / Fremantle 85% · Marvel Stadium · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Jack Higgins (23' Tipped ⚡), Mitch Owens (31' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Wilson (33'), Cooper Sharman (69' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Lance Collard (78'), Final quarter (33m 34s)Mitch Owens (59'), Jack Steele (80'), Hugo Garcia (82'), Anthony Caminiti (90') · Fremantle: Hayden Young (7' 1st), Isaiah Dudley (67'), Jye Amiss (61' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Quinton Narkle (89')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 85% | Lost |
| St Kilda | 15% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 27.1 predicted → 61 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda Saints vs Fremantle Dockers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

St Kilda 94–33 Fremantle in AFL Round 8 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model gave Fremantle an 85 per cent chance and pencilled in a 27.1-point win. St Kilda won by 61. That's not a near miss, that's a result from a different postcode.

The maths had reasons to like Fremantle. Their midfield rated at 1042 against St Kilda's 944, their forward line at 1042 to 1019, and they'd been scoring at 102.6 points a game over their last five compared to St Kilda's 72.1. On paper this was Fremantle's game to control. On the day, St Kilda had 50 clearances to 22 and ran up 151 contested possessions to 103. The rating that mattered most got flipped on its head.

St Kilda led 14-6 at quarter time and never let Fremantle back in the contest. By half time it was 27-7, by three-quarter time 54-15, and the margin only widened from there. There was no comeback to monitor here, just a St Kilda side piling on scoreboard pressure from the opening minutes and Fremantle never finding an answer.

The disposal count tells the story of a game played almost entirely on St Kilda's terms: 378 to 286, with 61 inside 50s to Fremantle's 34. St Kilda were also cleaner where it counted most, landing 15 marks inside 50 to Fremantle's 4. When you get it forward that often and hold it that well once you're there, 94 points isn't a surprise, it's arithmetic.

Fremantle's one genuine avenue of control was the ruck, where they won hit-outs 51 to 38 despite going in with the lower rating there, 1016 to St Kilda's 1031. It didn't translate to anything. Winning the tap without winning the clearance is just possession of the ball in the air for half a second, and Fremantle's 22 clearances against St Kilda's 50 confirms it never turned into first use. Fremantle were also the tidier side by the numbers, with better disposal efficiency at 72.5 per cent to 67.3 and more tackles, 87 to 76. Efficient and effortful doesn't help much when you're not getting your hands on the ball often enough to use it.

Intercepts were locked level at 60 apiece, which is about the only column where the ledger reads even. Everywhere else it was St Kilda by a distance that had nothing to do with what the ratings suggested going in.

Alphr's model went 1 from 3 on this one. It picked the wrong team, missed the margin by 34 points, and picked the total high, tipping 151 against an actual 127, but the under 170.5 call landed. St Kilda's form line read like a side headed for another loss, averaging 18.9 fewer points than they conceded against Fremantle's superior recent numbers. None of that showed up on the ground. Sometimes the side with the worse résumé just turns up and plays the better footy, and no rating system sees that coming until it's already 27-7 at the main break.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 14 | 13 | 27 | 40 | 94 |
| Fremantle | 6 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 33 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| **378** | Disposals | 286 |
| **151** | Contested poss. | 103 |
| **50** | Clearances | 22 |
| **61** | Inside 50s | 34 |
| **95** | Marks | 82 |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 4 |
| 76 | Tackles | **87** |
| 38 | Hit-outs | **51** |
| 60 | Intercepts | 60 |
| 67.3% | Disposal eff. | **72.5%** |

**Model Report Card**

St Kilda defied the model's 85% prediction for Fremantle, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 27.1 but the actual margin was 61 points. The game's 127 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 151. St Kilda led 27–7 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 61. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 170.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.50 (edge +18.6%) — model probability 85.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 27 · Predicted total: 151

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 52 · 67 | 60 · 57 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 64/g | 77/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.1/g | 13.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.6/g | 8.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 68.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 22 · 32 | 22 · 24 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 4.9/g |
| Disposals | 174/g | 158/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.7/g | 29.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3.9/g | 2.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.2% | 71.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | Fremantle |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 15 · 3 | 9 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 115/g |
| Inside 50s | 13/g | 10.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.1% | 82.4% |

**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.53/g (lg 2.38) +6% · Key Forwards 3.57/g (lg 3.61) -1% · Forwards 4.08/g (lg 4.45) -8%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.48/g (lg 2.38) +4% · Key Forwards 3.33/g (lg 3.61) -8% · Forwards 4.06/g (lg 4.45) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 20 in 7g | 26/10g (1·3·2·2·4·3·3·2·3·3) | 10/7g | 84/56g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 11 in 6g | 14/10g (0·1·2·0·2·4·2·0·3·0) | 5/2g | 40/35g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 31' 83' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 7 in 5g | 14/10g (3·0·2·2·0·2·1·3·0·1) | 4/3g | 31/30g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' 83' 67' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 7 in 7g | 7/7g (2·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 71% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·3·0·1) | 1/4g | 5/41g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/10g | 38/100g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Lance Collard | DEF | 5 in 6g | 5/9g (0·0·0·2·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/5g | 33% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 12/17g | 53% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 18/74g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/31g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 2 in 7g | 7/10g (3·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 42/70g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 20/22g | 54% | — | 🏉 90' |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 12% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/37g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Tobie Travaglia | DEF | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/69g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dougal Howard | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/47g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hugh Boxshall | MID | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 27/127g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 36/90g | 16% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/100g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam O'Connell | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/36g | 0% | — | — |

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 20 in 7g | 29/10g (3·3·3·1·4·3·3·6·1·2) | 3/3g | 6/6g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 93% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 11 in 7g | 14/10g (1·1·1·0·1·4·1·0·3·2) | 2/1g | 8/4g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' 75' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 11 in 7g | 16/10g (1·3·1·2·0·1·3·3·0·2) | 4/4g | 14/11g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 80% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 8 in 7g | 8/7g (4·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.65 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 8 in 6g | 15/10g (1·2·3·1·0·0·2·2·3·1) | 20/10g | 18/17g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 79% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (2·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 9/18g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 3 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/11g | 28% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Luke Jackson | RUC | 3 in 4g | 9/10g (1·0·2·1·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/4g | 9/11g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Sharp | FWD | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 3/7g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 5/7g | 7/15g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/16g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/15g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 1 in 7g | 6/10g (3·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/13g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/13g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 7/11g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joshua Draper | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/19g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quinton Narkle | FWD | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/6g | 32% | — | 🏉 89' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Macrae | 26.5 | $1.80 | 59% | 38 ✗ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.96 | 61% | 28 ✗ |
| Jack Steele ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 22 ✓ |
| Bradley Hill ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 21 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.86 | 65% | 21 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie | 18.5 | $1.85 | 57% | 24 ✗ |
| Rowan Marshall | 17.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 13 ✓ |

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 29.5 | $1.95 | 49% | 18 ✓ |
| Caleb Serong | 29.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 15 ✓ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 16 ✓ |
| Hayden Young | 22.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 8 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 20.5 | $1.97 | 42% | 24 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson | 18.5 | $1.82 | 54% | 21 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton | 18.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 7 ✓ |
| Corey Wagner | 17.5 | $1.76 | 55% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r8-st-kilda-v-fremantle
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)