# AFL Round 8 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 8 of the 2025 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 8 at a glance
- 9 matches · 15W–12L on 27 settled picks (56% strike rate) · best value +30.9% edge

## Round 8 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows v Carlton | Adelaide Crows @ $1.54 | Adelaide Crows 96% | WON |
| St Kilda v Fremantle | Fremantle @ $1.50 | Fremantle 85% | LOST |
| Collingwood v Geelong Cats | Collingwood @ $1.45 | Collingwood 85% | LOST |
| Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide | Western Bulldogs @ $1.30 | Western Bulldogs 90% | WON |
| Essendon v North Melbourne | Essendon @ $1.33 | Essendon 67% | WON |
| Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast SUNS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $2.68 | Gold Coast SUNS 64% | LOST |
| Sydney Swans v GWS GIANTS | Sydney Swans @ $2.18 | Sydney Swans 65% | WON |
| West Coast Eagles v Melbourne | Melbourne @ $1.48 | Melbourne 80% | WON |
| Hawthorn v Richmond | Hawthorn @ $1.06 | Hawthorn 98% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Adelaide Crows v Carlton
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 95.8% / Carlton 4.2%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.54 (edge +30.9%) — model probability 95.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 48 · Predicted total: 194
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r8-adelaide-crows-v-carlton

### St Kilda v Fremantle
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 14.7% / Fremantle 85.3%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.50 (edge +18.6%) — model probability 85.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 170.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 27 · Predicted total: 151
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r8-st-kilda-v-fremantle

### Collingwood v Geelong Cats
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 85.3% / Geelong Cats 14.7%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.45 (edge +16.3%) — model probability 85.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 18 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r8-collingwood-v-geelong-cats

### Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Mars Stadium · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 90.2% / Port Adelaide 9.8%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.30 (edge +13.3%) — model probability 90.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -21.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 43 · Predicted total: 185
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r8-western-bulldogs-v-port-adelaide

### Essendon v North Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 67.1% / North Melbourne 32.9%
- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $1.33 (edge -8.1%) — model probability 67.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon -20.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 13 · Predicted total: 157
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r8-essendon-v-north-melbourne

### Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast SUNS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Gabba · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 35.6% / Gold Coast SUNS 64.4%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $2.68 (edge +27.1%) — model probability 64.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +27.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 13 · Predicted total: 164
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r8-brisbane-lions-v-gold-coast-suns

### Sydney Swans v GWS GIANTS
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · SCG · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 64.5% / GWS GIANTS 35.5%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $2.18 (edge +18.7%) — model probability 64.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.7%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 2 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r8-sydney-swans-v-gws-giants

### West Coast Eagles v Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 20.2% / Melbourne 79.8%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.48 (edge +12.3%) — model probability 79.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 162.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 16 · Predicted total: 157
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r8-west-coast-eagles-v-melbourne

### Hawthorn v Richmond
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 98.0% / Richmond 2.0%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.06 (edge +3.7%) — model probability 98.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 179.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 73 · Predicted total: 208
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r8-hawthorn-v-richmond

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/7 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/7.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/9 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/9.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/8
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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC