# Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast SUNS — AFL Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Brisbane Lions 66 – 49 Gold Coast SUNS

_Brisbane Lions devour Gold Coast SUNS._

Half time: 32 – 21 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Brisbane Lions 36% / Gold Coast SUNS 64% · Gabba · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Brisbane Lions: Jarrod Berry (27' 1st), Charlie Cameron (32' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Conor McKenna (34'), Callum Ah Chee (75' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Gardiner (82') · Gold Coast SUNS: Mac Andrew (38'), Jed Walter (44' Tipped ⚡), Ben King (67' Tipped ⚡), Ethan Read (79' Tipped ⚡), Ben Ainsworth (82'), Touk Miller (88')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 64% | Lost |
| Brisbane Lions | 36% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 12.6 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast SUNS Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 8, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Brisbane Lions 66–49 Gold Coast SUNS in AFL Round 8 at Gabba. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-seven clearances to twenty-eight. That's the number that explains a lot of what followed at the Gabba, where Brisbane Lions put away Gold Coast SUNS 66-49. Win the ball at the source that often and everything downstream gets easier: more the footy, more entries forward, more chances to finish it off.

The Lions did all three. They out-disposed the Suns 373 to 329, went inside 50 fifty-six times to forty, and were sharper when they got there, eight marks inside 50 to four. Gold Coast had joy through the middle of the ground for stretches too, but with fewer clearances to work off, that improved delivery never translated into scoreboard pressure until much later.

The scoreboard tells its own story of when the game was actually won. Brisbane led 10-7 at quarter time, a workable gap. By half time it was 32-21, and by three-quarter time the margin had blown out to 63-29. That third term is where the result was decided, Brisbane piling on 31 points to Gold Coast's 8 while the clearance and inside 50 differentials did their damage. The last quarter alone belonged to the Suns, who scored 20 to Brisbane's 3, but by then it was arithmetic, not doubt.

Gold Coast's best number on the sheet was disposal efficiency, 78.5% to Brisbane's 70.0%. They used it cleanly when they had it. The problem was volume and supply. Fifty-one hit-outs to thirty-nine gave the Suns first use at the stoppage, and their ruck rating (1045 to 961) backed that up as the one area they were rated stronger going in. None of it mattered much without the clearances to match, and Brisbane won those 47-28 regardless.

Brisbane also brought more heat without the ball, 67 tackles to 52, and won the intercept count 67 to 64, modest edges that added up alongside the bigger disparities in marks (108 to 71) and contested possession (147 to 125). Forward line strength told too: Brisbane rated at 1032 against Gold Coast's 941, and it showed in the way they controlled entries and finished them.

For the model, this one was a miss and it knows it. Gold Coast came in favoured by 12.6 points with a 64% win probability, on the back of a better recent record, two wins from their last five to Brisbane's rounding to one and a positive scoring differential where Brisbane's actual average margin sat comfortably ahead anyway. None of that showed up on the day. The Lions won by 17, the model's only correct call was the under on a total line of 173.5, with the game finishing on 115 points, some 49 short of the projected 164. One from three isn't a good return, and it's a reminder that clean form lines don't always survive a lopsided clearance count.

Brisbane's night was built in the guts of the ground and finished off inside 50. Gold Coast's efficiency numbers were fine, their supply wasn't. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one leaned heavily Brisbane's way from quarter time onward.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 10 | 22 | 31 | 3 | 66 |
| Gold Coast SUNS | 7 | 14 | 8 | 20 | 49 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Brisbane Lions | Stat | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| **373** | Disposals | 329 |
| **147** | Contested poss. | 125 |
| **47** | Clearances | 28 |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 40 |
| **108** | Marks | 71 |
| **8** | Marks inside 50 | 4 |
| **67** | Tackles | 52 |
| 39 | Hit-outs | **51** |
| **67** | Intercepts | 64 |
| 70.0% | Disposal eff. | **78.5%** |

**Model Report Card**

Brisbane Lions defied the model's 64% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.6 but the actual margin was 17 points. The game's 115 points came in 49 points lower than the predicted 164. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 173.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $2.68 (edge +27.1%) — model probability 64.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +27.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 13 · Predicted total: 164

### H2H History (Last 5) — Brisbane Lions lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Brisbane Lions | 95 – 53 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2026 | R13 | Gold Coast SUNS | 75 – 106 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2025 | QE | Brisbane Lions | 100 – 47 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2025 | R20 | Gold Coast SUNS | 130 – 64 | Brisbane Lions |
| 2024 | R20 | Gold Coast SUNS | 65 – 93 | Brisbane Lions |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 65 · 59 | 80 · 45 |
| Goal Assists | 4.6/g | 7.3/g |
| Disposals | 83/g | 119/g |
| Inside 50s | 18.7/g | 24.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.4/g | 12.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65% | 68.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 25 · 16 | 11 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 3/g |
| Disposals | 167/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.6/g | 21/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.9/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.3% | 67.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Brisbane Lions | Gold Coast SUNS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 11 | 7 · 6 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 119/g | 121/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.3/g | 17/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.1/g | 0.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.9% | 79.1% |

**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.6/g (lg 1.32) +21% · Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.51) +6% · Forwards 4.46/g (lg 4.49) -1%
**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.47/g (lg 4.49) +0% · Key Forwards 3.4/g (lg 3.6) -6% · Midfielders 2.08/g (lg 2.34) -11%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gabba. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 16 in 7g | 19/10g (1·1·1·1·2·1·1·5·2·4) | 21/14g | 126/92g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 79% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 15 in 7g | 18/10g (1·2·0·4·1·1·3·3·0·3) | 14/10g | 67/74g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 74% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 8 in 7g | 16/10g (1·3·4·1·3·0·1·2·0·1) | 3/8g | 28/55g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' 86' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 5 in 7g | 8/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·0·2·2·0) | 11/11g | 71/73g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 4 in 5g | 14/10g (3·2·2·2·1·1·3·0·0·0) | 40/17g | 159/82g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' 65' |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3) | 10/16g | 36/74g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McInerney | RUC | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 1/11g | 39/82g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (2·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 21/24g | 130/144g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 8/14g | 63/94g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 5/12g | 40/85g | 26% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/18g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 8/23g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/10g | 4/32g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Sam Day | KF | 2 in 6g | 11/10g (3·3·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 9/15g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Will McLachlan | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (2·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/29g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Conor McKenna | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 5/23g | 10% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/14g | 4/83g | 8% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 4/108g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jack Payne | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/35g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/36g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 23/104g | 2% | — | — |

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 23 in 6g | 32/10g (3·3·2·1·6·4·2·5·1·5) | 19/8g | 13/7g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 93% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 9 in 5g | 11/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·3·1·1·3) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 44' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 8 in 6g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·2·3·1·1·1·0) | 6/16g | 2/12g | 38% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 8 in 6g | 11/10g (1·0·0·2·1·2·2·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.75 AI 60% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 6 in 6g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·4) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 5 in 6g | 8/10g (1·2·0·0·2·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.72 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 11/11g | 8/10g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 4 in 5g | 11/10g (1·0·2·2·2·1·0·2·1·0) | 2/7g | 1/5g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 6/9g | 6/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/12g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/7g | 1/4g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 7/10g | 3/8g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 1 in 5g | 6/10g (1·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 12/14g | 5/10g | 60% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/9g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/7g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | David Swallow | FWD | no games | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/20g | 6/13g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 5g | 8/10g (0·3·4·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 14% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 28.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 25 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft | 25.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 34 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko | 25.5 | $1.96 | 58% | 23 ✓ |
| Hugh McCluggage ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.85 | 70% | 30 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 23.5 | $1.95 | 57% | 26 ✗ |
| Darcy Wilmot | 20.5 | $1.81 | 65% | 16 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 19.5 | $1.90 | 51% | 18 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 19.5 | $1.93 | 54% | 29 ✗ |

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 28.5 | $1.95 | 59% | 27 ✓ |
| Touk Miller | 25.5 | $1.80 | 60% | 29 ✗ |
| Matt Rowell | 24.5 | $1.92 | 59% | 16 ✓ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.95 | 75% | 26 ✗ |
| Sam Flanders | 21.5 | $1.85 | 47% | 21 ✓ |
| Daniel Rioli | 20.5 | $1.95 | 60% | 18 ✓ |
| Ben Ainsworth ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.81 | 65% | 12 ✓ |
| Lachie Weller | 16.5 | $1.88 | 53% | 2 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)