AI Game Review
Brisbane Lions defied the model's 64% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.6 but the actual margin was 17 points. The game's 115 points came in 49 points lower than the predicted 164. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 173.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
36%
Gold Coast SUNS
64%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Brisbane Lions are far from out of this at 36%. Brisbane Lions are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Gold Coast SUNS counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 12.6 points with a combined total of 164.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @2.68
Lost ✗
Edge
+27.1%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS -12.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+27.1%
Total Points
Under 173.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | W L L L L | 78.6 |
Gold Coast SUNS | W W L L L | 82.4 |
Avg Conceded
70.7
Brisbane Lions
75.1
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
18.0
Brisbane Lions
-3.7
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
333.3
Brisbane Lions
331.5
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
56.0
Brisbane Lions
54.9
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: -12.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.07
Team Effectiveness
-0.04
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.