# Collingwood v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 87 – 90 Geelong Cats

_Geelong Cats roar back to toy with Collingwood._

Half time: 49 – 42 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 85% / Geelong Cats 15% · MCG · Sat, 03 May, 07:35 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Bobby Hill (15' Tipped ⚡), Mason Cox (20'), Darcy Cameron (23'), Brody Mihocek (26' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Dan Houston (36'), Jamie Elliott (39' Tipped ⚡), Nick Daicos (56'), Scott Pendlebury (72'), Tim Membrey (89' Tipped ⚡) · Geelong Cats: Mark Blicavs (9' 1st), Bailey Smith (11'), Oliver Dempsey (19' ×2), Oliver Henry (47' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Shaun Mannagh (57' ×2), Jeremy Cameron (84' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Wiltshire (87'), Patrick Dangerfield (86' Tipped ⚡), Jack Bowes (91')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 85% | Lost |
| Geelong Cats | 15% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 17.9 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm · Last updated: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Collingwood 87–90 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 8 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirteen. That's the gap between Collingwood's 130 disposals... no, flip it: Geelong won the contested-possession count 130 to 117, and that thirteen-possession edge is what turned a seven-point three-quarter-time deficit into a three-point win. Final score: Geelong Cats 90, Collingwood 87.

Collingwood led at every change. Twenty-nine to 26 at quarter time, 49-42 at the main break, 70-63 heading into the last term. By any normal reading of a scoreboard, that's a job getting done. Instead Geelong scored 27 to Collingwood's 17 in the final quarter and walked out with the points.

The story of how is in the stat sheet. Collingwood outmarked Geelong 108 to 78 and dominated marks inside 50, 18 to 9, which tells you they were finding targets in space all day. They pressed forward more too, 53 inside 50s to 47, and their ruck division ran riot, 51 hit-outs to 32, backing up a forward rating of 1027 to Geelong's 981 coming in. On paper this was set up to be a Collingwood arm-wrestle won comfortably.

But footy isn't won on marks alone, and Geelong's 130 to 117 edge in the contest is what mattered when it counted. Clearances were close, 37-36 to Collingwood, so it wasn't about winning the ball at stoppages. It was about winning it in general play and under pressure, and Geelong did that better across four quarters, especially the one that mattered most.

Geelong's form lines coming in were a mess on paper, an average of 89.8 points conceded across their last five and an average winning margin of just 4.8, against Collingwood's tidier 69.5 conceded and 10.9 margin. None of that showed up in this result. Geelong's ruck rating of 992 against Collingwood's 944 was the one positional number that didn't flatter the home side, and on a day the hit-out count went 51-32 the other way, Geelong still found a way to win the footy where it mattered.

Collingwood will look at the efficiency numbers, 72.5 per cent to 71.5, and the intercept count, 61 to 55, and wonder how a side that led in almost every column bar the one that decides territory battles let a 20-point buffer at three-quarter time turn into a three-point loss by the siren. It's the sort of afternoon that gets filed under lessons rather than excuses.

For Alphr's model, this one was a clean miss. Collingwood went in rated 1490 to Geelong's 1520 but were still installed at 85 per cent to win, with an expected margin of 17.9 points and a combined total near 170. The actual margin was three points the other way, and the total landed at 177. All three picks missed, and the model will wear it. Wins and misses, all of it, and this was a miss worth studying rather than burying.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 29 | 20 | 21 | 17 | 87 |
| Geelong Cats | 26 | 16 | 21 | 27 | 90 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| **352** | Disposals | 334 |
| 117 | Contested poss. | **130** |
| **37** | Clearances | 36 |
| **53** | Inside 50s | 47 |
| **108** | Marks | 78 |
| **18** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **64** | Tackles | 56 |
| **51** | Hit-outs | 32 |
| **61** | Intercepts | 55 |
| **72.5%** | Disposal eff. | 71.5% |

**Model Report Card**

Geelong Cats defied the model's 85% prediction for Collingwood, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 17.9 but the actual margin was 3 points. Geelong Cats trailed 49–42 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 87–90. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.45 (edge +16.3%) — model probability 85.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 172.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 18 · Predicted total: 170

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 77 · 39 | 64 · 53 |
| Goal Assists | 6/g | 5.7/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 109/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.1/g | 21.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.1/g | 9.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.1% | 65.1% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 23 | 30 · 17 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 125/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.6/g | 17.9/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.4/g | 3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.6% | 68.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 4 | 5 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Disposals | 114/g | 111/g |
| Inside 50s | 13.3/g | 10.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 81% | 79.4% |

**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.71/g (lg 3.61) +3% · Forwards 4.53/g (lg 4.45) +2% · Rucks 0.49/g (lg 0.51) -4%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Defenders 1.21/g (lg 1.32) -8% · Forwards 4.02/g (lg 4.45) -10% · Key Forwards 3.25/g (lg 3.61) -10%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 15 in 7g | 17/10g (1·0·1·2·2·1·0·3·2·5) | 25/16g | 196/123g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| – | Bobby Hill | FWD | 11 in 7g | 15/10g (2·0·2·1·2·2·0·3·2·1) | 5/5g | 48/41g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 11 in 6g | 16/10g (0·2·2·1·2·3·0·3·2·1) | 13/9g | 134/82g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 69' 96' 99' |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 9 in 6g | 16/10g (1·3·1·2·1·4·0·1·1·2) | 17/12g | 45/20g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 89' |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 5 in 4g | 13/10g (2·2·0·1·1·2·0·2·2·1) | 18/13g | 118/109g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Schultz | FWD | 5 in 4g | 10/10g (0·2·1·0·2·0·0·1·2·2) | 5/7g | 29/23g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 4/3g | 38/50g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/14g | 14/130g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 3/12g | 35% | — | — |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 3 in 7g | 7/10g (0·2·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 24/48g | 60% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 8/16g | 96/172g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 3 in 4g | 9/10g (0·2·2·0·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 11/14g | 100/109g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/6g | 3/19g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 4/20g | 24% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 1 in 7g | 5/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 36/59g | 36% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/18g | 48/143g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 30/76g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 1 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 25/48g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 4/21g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Moore | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/15g | 39/103g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/65g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mason Cox | RUC | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/8g | 79/81g | 38% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 14/18g | 79/174g | 24% | — | 🏉 72' |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 17 in 7g | 32/10g (9·4·2·4·1·1·1·4·2·4) | 60/16g | 111/40g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 92% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.12 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 84' |
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 15 in 7g | 17/10g (1·0·1·2·0·2·3·4·3·1) | 15/18g | 50/61g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.16 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 86' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 11 in 7g | 13/10g (1·0·1·2·2·1·0·2·2·2) | 1/1g | 10/10g | 63% | — | 🏉 19' 85' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 8 in 7g | 14/10g (2·4·0·3·2·0·2·0·0·1) | 7/6g | 37/22g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 70% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·2·0·1) | 5/6g | 22/27g | 66% | — | — |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 16/26g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 5 in 7g | 14/10g (4·1·4·3·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 7/3g | 46/29g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.46 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 47' 71' |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 5 in 7g | 9/10g (2·2·0·1·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 3/6g | 68% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/16g | 38% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 2/15g | 20/74g | 38% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 4 in 4g | 15/10g (2·2·2·1·3·1·1·0·3·0) | 1/1g | 5/4g | 73% | — | 🏉 57' 91' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/6g | 6/11g | 32% | — | 🏉 11' |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 23/49g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/20g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jhye Clark | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 2/35g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/38g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/32g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mitch Duncan | DEF | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/16g | 37/69g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Wiltshire | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 87' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 30.5 | $1.93 | 55% | 28 ✓ |
| Steele Sidebottom | 26.5 | $1.75 | 62% | 25 ✓ |
| Josh Daicos | 26.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 32 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 24.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 26 ✗ |
| Dan Houston | 22.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 20 ✓ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 19.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 20 ✗ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.94 | 91% | 18 ✓ |
| Jack Crisp | 19.5 | $1.95 | 40% | 15 ✓ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 34 ✗ |
| Max Holmes | 23.5 | $1.80 | 57% | 21 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.78 | 68% | 13 ✓ |
| Mitch Duncan ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.85 | 81% | 20 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie | 19.5 | $1.97 | 56% | 16 ✓ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 17.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 14 ✓ |
| Tom Atkins | 17.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 21 ✗ |
| Shaun Mannagh | 17.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 18 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)