AI Game Review
Geelong Cats defied the model's 85% prediction for Collingwood, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 17.9 but the actual margin was 3 points. Geelong Cats trailed 49–42 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 87–90. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
85%
Geelong Cats
15%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood are clear favourites here at 85%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Geelong Cats. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Geelong Cats carry a 30-point ELO rating advantage (1520 vs 1490). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 17.9 points with a combined total of 170.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.45
Lost ✗
Edge
+16.3%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -13.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+16.3%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | W L L L L | 75.7 |
Geelong Cats | W W W L L | 75.7 |
Avg Conceded
69.5
Collingwood
89.8
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
10.9
Collingwood
4.8
Geelong Cats
Disposals
335.6
Collingwood
379.9
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
52.1
Collingwood
55.8
Geelong Cats
ELO–Market Disagreement
Geelong Cats hold the ELO advantage (1520 vs 1490), but the market favours Collingwood (@1.45).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
85%
Collingwood predicted to win by 18 points
Predicted total: 170 · Line: +17.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.23
Team Effectiveness
+0.13
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.