Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
20%
Melbourne
80%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Melbourne ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model predicts Melbourne by 16.2 points with a combined total of 157.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @1.48
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.3%
Line / Spread
Melbourne +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.3%
Total Points
Under 162.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | WWLLL | 105.6 |
Melbourne | WWLLL | 109.3 |
Avg Conceded
67.7
West Coast Eagles
74.1
Melbourne
Avg Margin
5.2
West Coast Eagles
2.1
Melbourne
Disposals
376.7
West Coast Eagles
342.2
Melbourne
Inside 50s
51.6
West Coast Eagles
47.8
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
80%
Melbourne predicted to win by 16 points
Predicted total: 157 · Line: -16.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.07
Team Effectiveness
-0.12
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.