AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 96% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 47.8 but the actual margin was 60 points. The game's 160 points came in 34 points lower than the predicted 194. Adelaide Crows led 55–22 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 60. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
96%
Carlton
4%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 96%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Carlton. Carlton are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but Adelaide Crows counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Carlton carry a 101-point ELO rating advantage (1578 vs 1477). The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 47.8 points with a combined total of 194.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.54
Winner ✓
Edge
+30.9%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -11.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+30.9%
Total Points
Over 175.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | W L L L L | 76.5 |
Carlton | W L L L L | 102.3 |
Avg Conceded
69.8
Adelaide Crows
99.1
Carlton
Avg Margin
-2.6
Adelaide Crows
-0.9
Carlton
Disposals
380.0
Adelaide Crows
338.3
Carlton
Inside 50s
57.6
Adelaide Crows
54.4
Carlton
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1578 vs 1477), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.54).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
96%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 48 points
Predicted total: 194 · Line: +47.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.49
Team Effectiveness
+0.46
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
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