# Adelaide Crows v Carlton — AFL Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 110 – 50 Carlton

_Adelaide Crows swoop on Carlton._

Half time: 55 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 96% / Carlton 4% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 03 May, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Izak Rankine (5' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Darcy Fogarty (8' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Alex Neal-Bullen (15' ×2), Jordan Dawson (25' ×3), Taylor Walker (50' Tipped ⚡), Ben Keays (52' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Josh Rachele (82' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Riley Thilthorpe (69' Tipped ⚡), Brodie Smith (92') · Carlton: Patrick Cripps (7' ×2), Jesse Motlop (20'), Corey Durdin (69' ×2), Charlie Curnow (85' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 96% | Won |
| Carlton | 4% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 47.8 predicted → 60 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Blues Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Adelaide Crows 110–50 Carlton in AFL Round 8 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirty-three points to fourteen at quarter time. That's not a nervy start, that's a statement. Adelaide Crows had Carlton on the back foot from the first bounce and never let them find their footing.

By half time it was 55-22, and by the last change it had blown out to 88-36. Every quarter added to the gap rather than closing it: 19 points up after one term, 33 up at the half, 52 up at three-quarter time, and finally a 60-point win, 110-50. This wasn't a game that tightened in the run home. It went the other way entirely.

The ruck battle explains a fair chunk of it. Adelaide won hit-outs 45 to 19, which is the kind of dominance that hands your midfield first use of the ball all day. That flowed straight into clearances, 38 to 30 Adelaide's way, and from there into general possession, 380 disposals to 311. Efficiency mattered too: Adelaide hit targets at 82.0%, Carlton at 72.8%. Cleaner hands, more of the footy, and first crack at it from stoppages. Hard to lose from that position.

What makes it sharper is Adelaide did all this despite going in as the weaker side on paper in every key area. Carlton's forward line rated 1053 to 929, the defence 1132 to 1020, midfield 1088 to 976, ruck 1040 to 939. On the ratings, Carlton should have controlled most of these battles. On the day, Adelaide won the hit-out count more than two to one and doubled Carlton's marks inside 50, 20 to 6. Form lines told a similar story before the bounce, with Carlton averaging 102 points a game across their last five to Adelaide's 76.5, and winning more of those matches. None of that showed up on the scoreboard here.

Inside 50s tell the rest of the tale, Adelaide going forward 58 times to Carlton's 36. More entries, more efficient use of them, and it snowballs. Carlton's one real number of note was tackles, 46 to Adelaide's 36, suggesting they were doing the chasing rather than the leading for most of the afternoon. Pressure without the ball doesn't win you games when the other side has 69 more disposals and 62 intercepts to your 59.

Alphr's model had Adelaide winning at 96%, which was never really in doubt once the first quarter numbers came in. The margin read was the miss: 47.8 points projected, 60 delivered. The total came in well under expectations too, 160 points played out against a projected 194, so this was a bigger blowout scored at a slower rate than the model anticipated. Two from three isn't a bad night's work, but the margin call undersold just how comprehensively this one got away from Carlton.

Adelaide covered the 11.5 line without much fuss. When you're up by 19 after one quarter and the gap only grows from there, covering is the least of your problems.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 33 | 22 | 33 | 22 | 110 |
| Carlton | 14 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 50 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| **380** | Disposals | 311 |
| **129** | Contested poss. | 112 |
| **38** | Clearances | 30 |
| **58** | Inside 50s | 36 |
| **120** | Marks | 94 |
| **20** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| 36 | Tackles | **46** |
| **45** | Hit-outs | 19 |
| **62** | Intercepts | 59 |
| **82.0%** | Disposal eff. | 72.8% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 96% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 47.8 but the actual margin was 60 points. The game's 160 points came in 34 points lower than the predicted 194. Adelaide Crows led 55–22 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 60. The model went 2/3 on this match. Adelaide Crows covered the 11.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.54 (edge +30.9%) — model probability 95.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 48 · Predicted total: 194

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 82 · 54 | 49 · 47 |
| Goal Assists | 5.7/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 92/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.1/g | 17.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 10.7/g | 8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.6% | 65.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 23 · 24 | 24 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 5.6/g | 4.1/g |
| Disposals | 142/g | 167/g |
| Inside 50s | 25.7/g | 26.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.6/g | 1.9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.4% | 67.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 3 · 6 | 16 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 115/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.4/g | 15.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 2.1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.8% | 73.4% |

**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.51) +4% · Forwards 4.49/g (lg 4.45) +1% · Defenders 1.26/g (lg 1.32) -5%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.45/g (lg 1.32) +10% · Midfielders 2.49/g (lg 2.38) +5% · Forwards 4.4/g (lg 4.45) -1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 19 in 7g | 25/10g (2·1·3·3·3·3·5·1·1·3) | 0/2g | 42/35g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 16 in 6g | 24/10g (1·5·2·0·4·3·2·3·4·0) | 9/6g | 103/62g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' 76' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 16 in 7g | 21/10g (2·1·2·1·1·4·4·2·2·2) | 23/11g | 273/120g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 12 in 7g | 17/10g (3·1·1·1·4·2·1·3·1·0) | 11/9g | 50/65g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' 79' |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 8 in 7g | 13/10g (2·1·2·2·2·0·0·2·1·1) | 6/5g | 51/27g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.32 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 92' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 7 in 4g | 18/10g (1·3·1·3·2·1·2·4·0·1) | 4/3g | 43/34g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 82' 91' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 6 in 7g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·1) | 14/13g | 7/16g | 50% | — | 🏉 15' 26' |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 16/38g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/9g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 5/12g | 20% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/4g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 19/45g | 26% | — | 🏉 25' 64' 89' |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/30g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 18/59g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·3·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Smith | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 30/112g | 8% | — | 🏉 92' |
| – | Jordon Butts | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/40g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/21g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/16g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/20g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 7/70g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 18/129g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 3/32g | 16% | — | — |

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 13 in 6g | 21/10g (4·3·0·1·0·3·1·2·4·3) | 15/6g | 12/8g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 85' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 7 in 3g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·4·2·1) | 3/4g | 6/5g | 56% | — | 🏉 69' 84' |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 1/7g | 0/7g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·3·0) | 2/2g | 2/3g | 54% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·3·1·0) | 8/12g | 6/8g | 48% | — | 🏉 7' 90' |
| – | Will White | FWD | 5 in 4g | 5/4g (0·1·3·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 75% | — | — |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 4 in 3g | 21/10g (2·5·3·2·1·1·3·1·0·3) | 20/9g | 10/7g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 85% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 1/7g | 4/6g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 3 in 6g | 3/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/2g | 2/4g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Young | DEF | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 1/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 4/9g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/7g | 1/6g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hollands | FWD | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/3g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Cowan | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 43/32g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Docherty | MID | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/12g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/15g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | 23.5 | $1.94 | 49% | 23 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson | 23.5 | $1.95 | 51% | 22 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.98 | 83% | 29 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 70% | 19 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.86 | 81% | 22 ✗ |
| Brodie Smith ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.87 | 69% | 17 ✓ |
| Ben Keays | 17.5 | $1.78 | 52% | 12 ✓ |

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 21 ✓ |
| George Hewett | 28.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 25 ✓ |
| Patrick Cripps ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.84 | 68% | 24 ✓ |
| Adam Cerra ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 76% | 22 ✓ |
| Blake Acres | 20.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 11 ✓ |
| Adam Saad ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.94 | 62% | 19 ✓ |
| Elijah Hollands ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 68% | 13 ✓ |
| Sam Docherty | 18.5 | $1.94 | 37% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)