AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 95% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 52.2 but the actual margin was 9 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
95%
North Melbourne
5%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide are clear favourites here at 95%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees Port Adelaide ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Port Adelaide carry a 107-point ELO rating advantage (1562 vs 1455). Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 52.2 points with a combined total of 174.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @1.11
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.0%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide -40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.0%
Total Points
Under 183.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | W W W L L | 70.6 |
North Melbourne | W W L L L | 88.9 |
Avg Conceded
76.2
Port Adelaide
85.5
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
4.6
Port Adelaide
18.5
North Melbourne
Disposals
368.0
Port Adelaide
336.8
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
52.4
Port Adelaide
48.1
North Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
95%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 52 points
Predicted total: 174 · Line: +52.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.01
Team Effectiveness
-0.02
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.