# Port Adelaide v North Melbourne — AFL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Port Adelaide 97 – 88 North Melbourne

_Port Adelaide hold off a gallant North Melbourne._

Half time: 59 – 47 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Port Adelaide 95% / North Melbourne 5% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 26 Apr, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Port Adelaide: Darcy Byrne-Jones (10' ×3 1st), Ollie Lord (15' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Willie Rioli (24' Tipped ⚡), Sam Powell-Pepper (27' Tipped ⚡), Connor Rozee (29'), Jason Horne-Francis (57'), Joe Richards (60' ×2), Final quarter (32m 25s)Mitch Georgiades (75') · North Melbourne: Tom Powell (13'), Paul Curtis (20' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Tristan Xerri (46'), Luke Parker (58'), Nick Larkey (70' Tipped ⚡), Cameron Zurhaar (103' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Luke Davies-Uniacke (106'), Jack Darling (80' Tipped ⚡), George Wardlaw (98')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 95% | Won |
| North Melbourne | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 52.2 predicted → 9 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 7, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Port Adelaide 97–88 North Melbourne in AFL Round 7 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Port Adelaide beat North Melbourne 97–88 at Adelaide Oval. Port Adelaide led 80–67 at three-quarter time and held on.

North Melbourne won the contested-possession battle 148 to 130. Port Adelaide used the ball more cleanly, hitting targets at 72.1%. Port Adelaide pressed forward more often, going inside 50 56 times to 49. Port Adelaide were cleaner inside forward 50 with 15 marks to 11. Port Adelaide brought the pressure, laying 83 tackles to 54. In a tight contest, those edges proved decisive.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Adelaide | 45 | 14 | 21 | 17 | 97 |
| North Melbourne | 16 | 31 | 20 | 21 | 88 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Port Adelaide | Stat | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| 325 | Disposals | **339** |
| 130 | Contested poss. | **148** |
| 45 | Clearances | **46** |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 49 |
| **72** | Marks | 48 |
| **15** | Marks inside 50 | 11 |
| **83** | Tackles | 54 |
| **48** | Hit-outs | 46 |
| **63** | Intercepts | 59 |
| **72.1%** | Disposal eff. | 67.2% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 95% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 52.2 but the actual margin was 9 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. Port Adelaide covered the 40.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.11 (edge +5.0%) — model probability 95.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 183.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 52 · Predicted total: 174

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Port Adelaide | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 50 · 53 | 50 · 68 |
| Goal Assists | 5.5/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposals | 121/g | 88/g |
| Inside 50s | 19/g | 11.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.7/g | 6.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.6% | 71.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Port Adelaide | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 18 · 13 | 13 · 26 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 144/g | 137/g |
| Inside 50s | 23.5/g | 18.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3/g | 2.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.6% | 77.4% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Port Adelaide | North Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 8 · 10 | 14 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.7/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 110/g | 152/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.8/g | 14.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.2% | 80% |

**Who scores on North Melbourne** — Rucks 0.73/g (lg 0.51) +43% · Defenders 1.75/g (lg 1.31) +34% · Forwards 5.9/g (lg 4.49) +31%
**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.51/g (lg 1.31) +15% · Forwards 4.49/g (lg 4.49) +0% · Key Forwards 3.44/g (lg 3.61) -5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 15 in 6g | 22/10g (2·1·3·1·0·4·2·3·3·3) | 5/2g | 70/41g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.02 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 10 in 6g | 17/10g (3·1·2·1·1·3·0·0·3·3) | 8/4g | 54/30g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | 8 in 6g | 11/10g (0·0·2·1·0·3·0·1·2·2) | 6/6g | 63/80g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 6 in 6g | 10/10g (2·1·1·0·1·1·1·3·0·0) | 2/2g | 29/31g | 70% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 5 in 6g | 9/10g (0·1·1·2·0·2·0·0·2·1) | 3/6g | 74/73g | 50% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 5 in 5g | 10/10g (2·1·0·2·0·1·1·2·0·1) | 3/9g | 31/110g | 68% | — | 🏉 10' 33' 107' |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | 5 in 3g | 12/10g (1·0·2·1·1·1·1·3·1·1) | 1/1g | 15/11g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 95' |
| – | Joe Richards | FWD | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 54% | — | 🏉 60' 97' |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 2/26g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/21g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 10/13g | 54/129g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/5g | 10/63g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Joe Berry | FWD | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/13g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 23/53g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 11/49g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/56g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/21g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Finlayson | KF | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (3·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 10/7g | 48/34g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/35g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 29/66g | 36% | — | — |

**North Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nick Larkey | KF | 17 in 6g | 24/10g (5·1·1·0·5·3·4·2·2·1) | 14/7g | 18/6g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| – | Paul Curtis | FWD | 15 in 6g | 19/10g (0·3·0·1·3·3·2·2·2·3) | 2/3g | 4/3g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.13 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 69' 101' |
| – | Cameron Zurhaar | DEF | 9 in 6g | 11/10g (1·0·0·1·1·4·1·1·1·1) | 9/9g | 5/7g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.35 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 103' 78' |
| – | Jack Darling | KF | 6 in 6g | 10/10g (1·1·0·2·1·2·1·0·2·0) | 25/15g | 25/17g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.49 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' |
| – | Jacob Konstanty | FWD | 5 in 6g | 5/6g (0·1·2·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Jy Simpkin | MID | 5 in 6g | 8/10g (0·0·0·3·1·1·1·0·2·0) | 2/6g | 3/7g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Luke Parker | DEF | 5 in 6g | 11/10g (3·0·0·3·0·1·0·2·0·2) | 3/16g | 6/14g | 42% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Zane Duursma | FWD | 3 in 2g | 9/10g (0·2·0·1·1·2·0·0·2·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Colby McKercher | FWD | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Luke Davies-Uniacke | MID | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (3·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/6g | 32% | — | 🏉 106' |
| – | Tom Powell | FWD | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 0/2g | 36% | — | 🏉 13' |
| – | Dylan Stephens | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | George Wardlaw | MID | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 35% | — | 🏉 98' |
| – | Harry Sheezel | MID | 1 in 6g | 6/10g (2·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tristan Xerri | RUC | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 28% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Caleb Daniel | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/14g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Comben | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Tucker | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 5/10g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Finn O'Sullivan | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jackson Archer | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kallan Dawson | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Luke McDonald | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Riley Hardeman | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 27 ✓ |
| Connor Rozee ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.98 | 75% | 27 ✗ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.89 | 75% | 27 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines | 24.5 | $1.95 | 50% | 24 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.96 | 64% | 17 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 19.5 | $1.85 | 50% | 22 ✗ |
| Willem Drew | 18.5 | $1.91 | 60% | 17 ✓ |
| Miles Bergman | 17.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 11 ✓ |

**North Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | 27.5 | $1.87 | 47% | 30 ✗ |
| Caleb Daniel | 26.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 22 ✓ |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | 24.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 25 ✗ |
| Jy Simpkin | 22.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 19 ✓ |
| Luke Parker | 20.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 27 ✗ |
| Tom Powell | 19.5 | $1.80 | 54% | 19 ✓ |
| George Wardlaw | 19.5 | $1.80 | 50% | 20 ✗ |
| Dylan Stephens ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)