AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 79% probability. The predicted margin of 13.7 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
79%
Geelong Cats
21%
AI Match Overview
Carlton are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Geelong Cats. The model sees Carlton ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Carlton carry a 47-point ELO rating advantage (1570 vs 1524). Recent form favours Carlton with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Geelong Cats. The margin model predicts Carlton by 13.7 points with a combined total of 181.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @2.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+35.5%
Line / Spread
Carlton +7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+35.5%
Total Points
Over 173.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | W W W W L | 107.4 |
Geelong Cats | W W W L L | 83.1 |
Avg Conceded
97.8
Carlton
86.7
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
-5.0
Carlton
21.7
Geelong Cats
Disposals
357.2
Carlton
334.7
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
48.0
Carlton
52.4
Geelong Cats
ELO–Market Disagreement
Carlton hold the ELO advantage (1570 vs 1524), but the market favours Geelong Cats (@1.77).
The model sides with ELO, Carlton predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
79%
Carlton predicted to win by 14 points
Predicted total: 181 · Line: +13.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.07
Team Effectiveness
+0.34
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.