# Carlton v Geelong Cats — AFL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Carlton 94 – 76 Geelong Cats

_Carlton see off Geelong Cats._

Half time: 53 – 34 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Carlton 79% / Geelong Cats 21% · MCG · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Carlton: Zac Williams (7'), Charlie Curnow (23' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Lachie Fogarty (27' ×2), Elijah Hollands (45'), Tom De Koning (58'), Corey Durdin (78'), Will White (81'), Harry McKay (89' ×2 Tipped ⚡), George Hewett (89') · Geelong Cats: Oliver Dempsey (2' ×2 1st Tipped ⚡), Tyson Stengle (13' Tipped ⚡), Patrick Dangerfield (32' Tipped ⚡), Mark OConnor (53'), Jeremy Cameron (61' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Mark Blicavs (70'), Bailey Smith (72'), Brad Close (83')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 79% | Won |
| Geelong Cats | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.7 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Carlton 94–76 Geelong Cats in AFL Round 7 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half time at the MCG had Carlton up 53 to 34, a handy lead but nothing that screamed blowout. By three-quarter time it was 80 to 52, and from there Geelong actually outscored Carlton in the last term, 24 to 14. It wasn't enough. Final score: Carlton 94, Geelong Cats 76.

That last-quarter form line is worth sitting with. Carlton led by 28 at the final change and won by 18, so Geelong did find something in the run home. But the disposal count and the inside 50 count had already done the damage well before then, and no final-term surge was going to undo a gap that size.

The numbers across the board back up why Carlton were never really under threat. They finished with 395 disposals to 328, a difference of 67 touches that let them control where the ball spent its time. They went inside 50 63 times to Geelong's 44, and when they got there they made it count: 14 marks inside 50 against 9. Efficiency tells the same story. Carlton hit targets at 74.8%, Geelong at 68.4%. Cleaner footy, more entries, better conversion once they arrived.

The midfield battle supports it too. Carlton won clearances 40 to 34, which lines up with the pre-match rating gap of 1034 to 1000 in the middle. Contested possession went their way as well, 145 to 136. Nothing in these raw numbers was one-sided on its own, but stacked together over four quarters it adds up to the 18-point margin.

Where Carlton really made their money was defence. Rated 1121 against Geelong's 999 coming in, the biggest gap on the sheet, and it showed. Marks finished 117 to 69, a huge split that points to a side able to hold its own structure and repeatedly rebound the ball out of defensive 50. Geelong's forward rating, 1052, actually sat above Carlton's 1019 heading in, but it barely mattered when the ball spent so little time in their front half. Hit-outs were close, 43 to 38, and tackles were close too, 70 to 67, so this wasn't a game Carlton won by out-hustling Geelong at the contest. They won it by what happened after the ball came out.

Form lines coming in told a more even story than the scoreboard suggests. Geelong arrived with the better recent average margin, plus 21.7 to Carlton's minus 4.98, and a tidier scoring average against, 86.71 to Carlton's 97.76. On paper this wasn't shaping as an 18-point Carlton win. But Carlton's superior scoring average, 107.4 to 83.1, proved the more relevant number when it actually mattered.

Alphr's model had Carlton favourites at 79% and picked a 13.7-point win in a game projected at 181 combined points. The actual margin was 18, combined score 170, so the model's read on the contest held up reasonably well even if it undercooked Carlton's day out slightly. Carlton also covered the 7.5-point line comfortably. It was, in the end, a result the underlying numbers, midfield share, inside 50 dominance and especially that lopsided marking count, had all pointed towards well before the final siren.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | 21 | 32 | 27 | 14 | 94 |
| Geelong Cats | 20 | 14 | 18 | 24 | 76 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Carlton | Stat | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| **395** | Disposals | 328 |
| **145** | Contested poss. | 136 |
| **40** | Clearances | 34 |
| **63** | Inside 50s | 44 |
| **117** | Marks | 69 |
| **14** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **70** | Tackles | 67 |
| **43** | Hit-outs | 38 |
| **74** | Intercepts | 67 |
| **74.8%** | Disposal eff. | 68.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 79% probability. The predicted margin of 13.7 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. Carlton covered the 7.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $2.30 (edge +35.5%) — model probability 78.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +35.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 14 · Predicted total: 181

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Carlton | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 38 · 40 | 57 · 42 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 5.8/g |
| Disposals | 87/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.5/g | 22.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.3/g | 10.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 63.8% | 64.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Carlton | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 22 · 11 | 26 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 3.7/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 166/g | 122/g |
| Inside 50s | 26.2/g | 18.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 3.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.2% | 69% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Carlton | Geelong Cats |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 15 · 11 | 4 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 1.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposals | 118/g | 110/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.5/g | 10.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.8% | 80.4% |

**Who scores on Geelong Cats** — Key Forwards 3.67/g (lg 3.61) +2% · Forwards 4.52/g (lg 4.45) +2% · Rucks 0.48/g (lg 0.51) -6%
**Who scores on Carlton** — Rucks 0.54/g (lg 0.51) +6% · Forwards 4.52/g (lg 4.45) +2% · Defenders 1.27/g (lg 1.32) -4%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Carlton** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Charlie Curnow | KF | 10 in 5g | 21/10g (3·4·3·0·1·0·3·1·2·4) | 18/6g | 102/50g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' 51' 75' |
| – | Zac Williams | DEF | 7 in 6g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·4) | 0/8g | 9/30g | 34% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Corey Durdin | FWD | 6 in 2g | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·4·2) | 1/4g | 9/17g | 54% | — | 🏉 78' |
| – | Jesse Motlop | FWD | 5 in 6g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·3) | 2/2g | 10/18g | 56% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Cripps | MID | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·3·1) | 6/10g | 39/81g | 48% | — | — |
| – | George Hewett | MID | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 2/11g | 13/41g | 34% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Sam Walsh | MID | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·3·0) | 4/6g | 15/43g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Will White | FWD | 4 in 3g | 4/3g (0·1·3) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 67% | — | 🏉 81' |
| – | Cooper Lord | MID | 3 in 5g | 3/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Adam Cerra | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 11/30g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Blake Acres | MID | 2 in 5g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 7/10g | 14/35g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jack Silvagni | DEF | 2 in 6g | 8/10g (1·0·4·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 34/49g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Cottrell | FWD | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 11/29g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Hollands | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/17g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry McKay | KF | 1 in 2g | 21/10g (3·2·5·3·2·1·1·3·1·0) | 13/9g | 90/44g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 89' 78' |
| – | Lachie Fogarty | FWD | 1 in 6g | 5/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 14/30g | 26% | — | 🏉 27' 40' |
| – | Mitch McGovern | KF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/7g | 27/38g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom De Koning | RUC | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 14/28g | 30% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Adam Saad | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/58g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hollands | FWD | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/4g | 10/8g | 45% | — | 🏉 45' |
| – | Jacob Weitering | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 7/68g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Carroll | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Haynes | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 2/25g | 6% | — | — |

**Geelong Cats** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Patrick Dangerfield | FWD | 14 in 6g | 17/10g (1·1·0·1·2·0·2·3·4·3) | 11/14g | 49/60g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' |
| – | Jeremy Cameron | KF | 13 in 6g | 31/10g (3·9·4·2·4·1·1·1·4·2) | 39/12g | 107/39g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 91% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' 88' 64' |
| – | Oliver Dempsey | MID | 9 in 6g | 12/10g (1·1·0·1·2·2·1·0·2·2) | 1/2g | 8/9g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.70 AI 57% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' 68' |
| – | Tyson Stengle | FWD | 7 in 6g | 15/10g (2·2·4·0·3·2·0·2·0·0) | 5/6g | 36/21g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| – | Brad Close | FWD | 5 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·2·0) | 2/5g | 21/26g | 62% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Max Holmes | MID | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·1·0·1·0) | 5/5g | 16/25g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Henry | FWD | 5 in 6g | 15/10g (1·4·1·4·3·0·1·0·1·0) | 11/6g | 46/28g | 78% | — | — |
| – | Shannon Neale | KF | 5 in 6g | 10/10g (1·2·2·0·1·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.40 AI 62% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Bowes | MID | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 4/10g | 3/15g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Shaun Mannagh | FWD | 4 in 3g | 17/10g (2·2·2·2·1·3·1·1·0·3) | 0/0g | 5/3g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.34 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Mark Blicavs | MID | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/13g | 19/73g | 36% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Bailey Smith | MID | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 5/10g | 28% | — | 🏉 72' |
| – | Rhys Stanley | RUC | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 12/15g | 23/48g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Sam De Koning | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/19g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jhye Clark | DEF | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Tom Atkins | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 3/37g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zach Guthrie | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 4/31g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Connor O'Sullivan | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Lawson Humphries | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mark O'Connor | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/34g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Oisin Mullin | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Wiltshire | FWD | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Tom Stewart | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/47g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Carlton**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett ⚡ Under | 29.5 | $1.90 | 64% | 29 ✓ |
| Sam Walsh | 27.5 | $1.92 | 59% | 30 ✗ |
| Patrick Cripps | 25.5 | $1.92 | 57% | 29 ✗ |
| Adam Cerra ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.95 | 75% | 25 ✓ |
| Blake Acres | 20.5 | $1.86 | 52% | 16 ✓ |
| Adam Saad | 20.5 | $1.85 | 60% | 21 ✗ |
| Tom De Koning ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.78 | 74% | 20 ✓ |
| Oliver Hollands | 16.5 | $1.95 | 48% | 23 ✗ |

**Geelong Cats**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.90 | 79% | 29 ✗ |
| Max Holmes ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 20 ✓ |
| Tom Stewart ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.89 | 66% | 13 ✓ |
| Lawson Humphries | 18.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 21 ✗ |
| Tom Atkins | 18.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 18 ✓ |
| Oliver Dempsey | 18.5 | $1.85 | 61% | 11 ✓ |
| Zach Guthrie | 18.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 21 ✗ |
| Patrick Dangerfield | 16.5 | $1.78 | 40% | 13 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)