AI Game Review
Western Bulldogs defied the model's 83% prediction for GWS GIANTS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 21.0 but the actual margin was 32 points. The game's 194 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 171. Western Bulldogs led 48–53 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 164.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
83%
Western Bulldogs
17%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 83%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Western Bulldogs. Western Bulldogs are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO, but GWS GIANTS counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Western Bulldogs carry a 62-point ELO rating advantage (1560 vs 1498). The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 21.0 points with a combined total of 171.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.54
Lost ✗
Edge
+17.9%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS -10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+17.9%
Total Points
Over 164.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | W W W L L | 83.7 |
Western Bulldogs | W W W L L | 79.2 |
Avg Conceded
71.6
GWS GIANTS
70.9
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-2.7
GWS GIANTS
14.8
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
343.2
GWS GIANTS
367.3
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
43.0
GWS GIANTS
50.6
Western Bulldogs
ELO–Market Disagreement
Western Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1560 vs 1498), but the market favours GWS GIANTS (@1.54).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
83%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 21 points
Predicted total: 171 · Line: +21.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.13
Team Effectiveness
+0.10
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.