# GWS GIANTS v Western Bulldogs — AFL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: GWS GIANTS 81 – 113 Western Bulldogs

_Western Bulldogs let the dogs loose on GWS GIANTS._

Half time: 48 – 53 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: GWS GIANTS 83% / Western Bulldogs 17% · Corroboree Group Oval Manuka · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — GWS GIANTS: Jake Riccardi (7' ×3 1st Tipped ⚡), Harvey Thomas (14'), Toby Greene (35' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jesse Hogan (56' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Toby Bedford (60' ×2), Tom Green (91'), Aaron Cadman (98' Tipped ⚡) · Western Bulldogs: James Harmes (25' ×4), Rory Lobb (36' ×2), Jason Johannisen (41'), Rhylee West (45' ×3), Tim English (66'), Matthew Kennedy (76'), Ed Richards (79'), Buku Khamis (71'), Aaron Naughton (83' Tipped ⚡), Sam Davidson (95')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 83% | Lost |
| Western Bulldogs | 17% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 21.0 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**GWS GIANTS vs Western Bulldogs Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 7, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

GWS GIANTS 81–113 Western Bulldogs in AFL Round 7 at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had GWS Giants winning this by 21 points. Western Bulldogs won it by 32. That's a 53-point miss on the margin, and it tells you the ratings walked into Manuka expecting the wrong team to dominate the guts of the ground.

Early on, the read looked fine. GWS led 21-15 at quarter time, playing the kind of clean, high-possession footy their profile suggested they could. Then the Bulldogs' rated strengths, a ruck division rated 1108 to 979 and a forward line rated 1071 to 974, started doing exactly what those numbers implied. The Dogs outscored GWS 38-27 in the second term to lead 53-48 at the main break, and from there it turned into a rout. GWS managed a single point in the third quarter while Western Bulldogs piled on 33, blowing the margin out to 37 points at the three-quarter mark. GWS won the last quarter 32-27, which is a nice footnote, but by then the game had long been decided.

The stat sheet is a strange one to look at given the final margin. GWS actually won the disposal count, 394 to 352, and were more efficient with it too, 73.7% to 71.7%. They doubled up on marks, 95 to 62, and won the intercept count 63-55. On paper that reads like a team in control. It wasn't.

What GWS didn't have was access to the contest. Western Bulldogs won clearances 55-33, a gap that lines up with the pre-match ruck rating gulf of 1108 to 979 almost perfectly. That clearance dominance fed 60 inside 50s to GWS's 45, and while the Dogs' scoring off those entries wasn't overwhelming, 7 marks inside 50 to 6, they simply got there more often and made more of the looks count. Hit-outs were close, 39-38, and contested possessions were close too, 143-141, but none of that mattered when the ball kept spilling out of stoppages the Bulldogs' way.

Form lines back this up. Western Bulldogs came in averaging 50.6 inside 50s a game and 367 disposals to GWS's 43.0 and 343

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 21 | 27 | 1 | 32 | 81 |
| Western Bulldogs | 15 | 38 | 33 | 27 | 113 |

**Key Match Stats**

| GWS GIANTS | Stat | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| **394** | Disposals | 352 |
| **143** | Contested poss. | 141 |
| 33 | Clearances | **55** |
| 45 | Inside 50s | **60** |
| **95** | Marks | 62 |
| 6 | Marks inside 50 | **7** |
| **52** | Tackles | 45 |
| **39** | Hit-outs | 38 |
| **63** | Intercepts | 55 |
| **73.7%** | Disposal eff. | 71.7% |

**Model Report Card**

Western Bulldogs defied the model's 83% prediction for GWS GIANTS, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 21.0 but the actual margin was 32 points. The game's 194 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 171. Western Bulldogs led 48–53 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 164.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.54 (edge +17.9%) — model probability 82.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +17.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 21 · Predicted total: 171

### H2H History (Last 5) — Western Bulldogs lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Western Bulldogs | 134 – 53 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2025 | R21 | Western Bulldogs | 132 – 44 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2024 | R24 | Western Bulldogs | 98 – 61 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2024 | R10 | GWS GIANTS | 43 – 70 | Western Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R20 | Western Bulldogs | 73 – 78 | GWS GIANTS |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 57 · 34 | 50 · 58 |
| Goal Assists | 4.5/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 97/g | 96/g |
| Inside 50s | 21.3/g | 15/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.5/g | 8.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 65.7% | 67.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 16 · 13 | 24 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 3.2/g | 6/g |
| Disposals | 151/g | 173/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.5/g | 30.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.2% | 71.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | GWS GIANTS | Western Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 8th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 6 | 9 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposals | 133/g | 105/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.7/g | 10.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 82% | 81.3% |

**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.38/g (lg 2.33) +2% · Key Forwards 3.3/g (lg 3.61) -9% · Forwards 4.08/g (lg 4.49) -9%
**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.49/g (lg 0.51) -4% · Defenders 1.25/g (lg 1.32) -5% · Forwards 4.23/g (lg 4.49) -6%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jesse Hogan | KF | 15 in 3g | 43/10g (4·5·3·6·2·3·5·4·9·2) | 30/12g | 22/10g | 98% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 97% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $7.75 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' 93' |
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 14 in 6g | 21/10g (2·2·0·3·1·3·2·3·5·0) | 45/16g | 50/29g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' 79' |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 6 in 6g | 13/10g (1·2·3·1·0·2·1·1·2·0) | 2/4g | 4/6g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.24 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 98' |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 6 in 6g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·2·1·1) | 0/2g | 3/2g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 56% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Callan Ward | MID | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/17g | 12/31g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 3 in 4g | 13/10g (1·1·4·1·1·2·0·0·2·1) | 6/7g | 4/3g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 76% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/5g | 32% | — | 🏉 60' 88' |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 4/6g | 8/10g | 38% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 3/3g | 44% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 2 in 3g | 9/10g (0·2·2·1·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 7/5g | 7/6g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 23' 38' |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 6/8g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Josh Kelly | MID | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 11/16g | 17/26g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Conor Stone | MID | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/12g | 14/19g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/12g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/15g | 3/23g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 45% | — | — |

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 11 in 6g | 18/10g (0·2·2·3·3·0·1·1·3·3) | 19/11g | 5/3g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 83' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 7 in 6g | 9/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·3) | 4/5g | 0/0g | 64% | — | 🏉 45' 72' 81' |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 7 in 6g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 5 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Laitham Vandermeer | FWD | 5 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·3·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 5 in 6g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2) | 4/7g | 0/3g | 44% | — | 🏉 76' |
| – | James Harmes | MID | 3 in 5g | 10/10g (4·2·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 6/9g | 0/1g | 34% | — | 🏉 25' 39' 53' 74' |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 7/16g | 3/7g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/14g | 3/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/11g | 0/3g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 2 in 6g | 7/10g (1·2·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/8g | 0/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | 2 in 1g | 12/10g (2·1·0·1·2·2·0·1·1·2) | 11/17g | 5/4g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Jason Johannisen | DEF | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/13g | 2/5g | 40% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Josh Dolan | FWD | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jedd Busslinger | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 11/11g | 32% | — | 🏉 36' 85' |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 0 in 6g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 0/3g | 42% | — | 🏉 66' |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Green | 32.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 27 ✓ |
| Lachie Whitfield | 30.5 | $1.87 | 63% | 30 ✓ |
| Finn Callaghan | 25.5 | $1.88 | 62% | 26 ✗ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.82 | 70% | 31 ✗ |
| Josh Kelly | 23.5 | $1.85 | 41% | 21 ✓ |
| Harry Himmelberg | 20.5 | $1.91 | 61% | 17 ✓ |
| Connor Idun | 18.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 16 ✓ |
| Toby Greene | 17.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 15 ✓ |

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Liberatore | 26.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 28 ✗ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 23.5 | $1.74 | 47% | 22 ✓ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 27 ✗ |
| Bailey Dale | 23.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 20 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy | 21.5 | $1.88 | 55% | 26 ✗ |
| Ryley Sanders | 20.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 20 ✓ |
| Bailey Williams | 18.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 20 ✗ |
| Sam Davidson | 17.5 | $1.79 | 44% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)