AI Game Review
Western Bulldogs defied the model's 83% prediction for GWS GIANTS — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 21.0 but the actual margin was 32 points. The game's 194 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 171. Western Bulldogs led 48–53 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 164.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
83%
Western Bulldogs
17%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 83%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Western Bulldogs. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. GWS GIANTS carry a 20-point ELO rating advantage (1634 vs 1614). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 21.0 points with a combined total of 171.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.54
Lost ✗
Edge
+17.9%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS -10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+17.9%
Total Points
Over 164.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | WWWLL | 83.4 |
Western Bulldogs | WWLLL | 91.6 |
Avg Conceded
67.0
GWS GIANTS
84.4
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
16.4
GWS GIANTS
7.2
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
384.0
GWS GIANTS
376.8
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
50.0
GWS GIANTS
50.0
Western Bulldogs
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
83%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 21 points
Predicted total: 171 · Line: +21.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.13
Team Effectiveness
+0.10
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.