# Melbourne v Richmond — AFL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Melbourne 83 – 63 Richmond

_Melbourne see off Richmond._

Half time: 34 – 30 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Melbourne 87% / Richmond 13% · MCG · Thu, 24 Apr, 07:30 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Melbourne: Ed Langdon (8' 1st), Bayley Fritsch (17' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Kade Chandler (24'), Harry Petty (43' ×2), Christian Petracca (69' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Tom Sparrow (79'), Koltyn Tholstrup (84'), Final quarter (32m 57s)Kade Chandler (64') · Richmond: Sam Lalor (27' Tipped ⚡), Tim Taranto (31' ×2), Steely Green (38'), Rhyan Mansell (52'), Tom Lynch (74' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Toby Nankervis (91')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 87% | Won |
| Richmond | 13% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 28.8 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Demons vs Richmond Tigers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Melbourne 83–63 Richmond in AFL Round 7 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Melbourne led from the first break and never let Richmond get within touching distance. Quarter time had it at 20 to 15, tight enough. By half time it was 34 to 30, still a game. Then Melbourne dropped 39 unanswered points on the board while Richmond managed just 8, turning a four-point contest into a 73 to 38 procession by the last change. From there it was administration. Final score: Melbourne 83, Richmond 63.

That third term is the whole story. Whatever plan Richmond had going in, it came apart in the space of one quarter, and the numbers explain why. Melbourne finished with 132 contested possessions to 108, and while clearances were level at 38 apiece, Melbourne turned that even split into far more use of the ball, 423 disposals to 326, at a cleaner 75.8 per cent efficiency against 73.9. Richmond weren't losing the ball in the same volume, they just weren't getting it back.

Tackle pressure tells the rest. Melbourne laid 72 tackles to Richmond's 42, a gap of 30, and that kind of defensive workrate strangles a team's ability to rebound. Add 70 intercepts to 62 and Melbourne were reading the ball in flight better all day, cutting off Richmond's supply before it reached a dangerous zone.

Inside 50 entries were close, 46 to 43, which says Richmond were still getting the ball forward. The problem was what happened when they got there. Melbourne pulled down 12 marks inside 50 to Richmond's 9, and with 126 marks overall to 94, Melbourne were simply taking the ball clean and controlling territory, not just contesting it.

None of this should shock anyone who looked at the pre-match numbers. Melbourne came in rated stronger everywhere that matters forward of centre, 1073 to 1019 up forward, 1055 to 1009 through the midfield, and 1002 to 954 in the ruck, with the hit-out count finishing 44 to 36 in Melbourne's favour to back that up. Richmond's only edge was defence, 1002 to 1000, a rating so marginal it was never going to hold against that kind of forward and midfield pressure.

Form lines pointed the same way. Melbourne arrived averaging 101.6 points scored against 66.9 conceded, a healthy buffer. Richmond's recent output sat at 86.9 scored and 77.5 conceded, with an average losing margin of 14.2 points across their last five. Put simply, Melbourne were the form side and the ratings side, and Saturday just confirmed it.

Alphr's model had Melbourne at 87 per cent to win and predicted a 28.8-point margin. The actual margin came in at 20, so the model overshot on the gap but had the right side of the ledger covered, with Melbourne covering the 21.5-point line regardless. On total points, the model called 175, the game delivered 146, a 29-point undershoot that suggests the model expected a more open scoring affair than the defensive squeeze that actually played out in the third quarter.

Richmond's night wasn't without shape. They kept inside 50 entries competitive and matched clearances, so the ball was getting to their end of the ground. They just couldn't do anything useful with it once it arrived, and that's the difference between a contest and a scoreboard.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 20 | 14 | 39 | 10 | 83 |
| Richmond | 15 | 15 | 8 | 25 | 63 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Melbourne | Stat | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| **423** | Disposals | 326 |
| **132** | Contested poss. | 108 |
| 38 | Clearances | 38 |
| **46** | Inside 50s | 43 |
| **126** | Marks | 94 |
| **12** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **72** | Tackles | 42 |
| **44** | Hit-outs | 36 |
| **70** | Intercepts | 62 |
| **75.8%** | Disposal eff. | 73.9% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Melbourne to win at 87% probability. The predicted margin of 28.8 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. The game's 146 points came in 29 points lower than the predicted 175. Melbourne led 34–30 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 2/3 on this match. Melbourne covered the 21.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.33 (edge +12.0%) — model probability 87.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne -21.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 29 · Predicted total: 175

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Melbourne | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 18th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 33 · 58 | 41 · 58 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 96/g | 75/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.2/g | 13.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.3/g | 5.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.9% | 65.6% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Melbourne | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 15th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 20 · 21 | 12 · 24 |
| Goal Assists | 2.5/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposals | 145/g | 124/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.8/g | 17.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.3/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.8% | 70.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Melbourne | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 10 | 8 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposals | 122/g | 141/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.5/g | 10.3/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80% | 78.2% |

**Who scores on Richmond** — Key Forwards 4.75/g (lg 3.61) +32% · Midfielders 2.75/g (lg 2.37) +16% · Rucks 0.56/g (lg 0.51) +10%
**Who scores on Melbourne** — Rucks 0.72/g (lg 0.51) +41% · Defenders 1.37/g (lg 1.32) +4% · Midfielders 2.35/g (lg 2.37) -1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Melbourne** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian Petracca | FWD | 7 in 6g | 11/10g (1·2·1·0·2·1·1·2·0·1) | 5/10g | 91/98g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' 88' |
| – | Kysaiah Pickett | MID | 7 in 3g | 18/10g (2·0·1·2·4·0·2·0·2·5) | 6/6g | 82/54g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kade Chandler | FWD | 6 in 6g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·0·3·1·0·0·2) | 4/4g | 32/38g | 50% | — | 🏉 24' |
| – | Harrison Petty | KF | 5 in 6g | 8/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·1·4) | 7/5g | 19/46g | 34% | — | 🏉 43' 55' |
| – | Harry Sharp | FWD | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 3/4g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Langford | MID | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (0·1·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Bayley Fritsch | FWD | 3 in 5g | 9/10g (2·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 13/7g | 122/75g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 71' |
| – | Ed Langdon | MID | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/10g | 25/64g | 38% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Jake Bowey | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/36g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tom Sparrow | MID | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 18/51g | 26% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Caleb Windsor | FWD | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 6/14g | 39% | — | — |
| – | Clayton Oliver | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 22/98g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jack Viney | MID | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 34/115g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Trent Rivers | DEF | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 5/55g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Spargo | FWD | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 29/47g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Christian Salem | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 15/94g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Judd McVee | DEF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/29g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Koltyn Tholstrup | DEF | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 4/7g | 29% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Max Gawn | RUC | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 59/116g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Steven May | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 6/63g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tom Fullarton | KF | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Tom McDonald | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 78/125g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Lindsay | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Richmond** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Seth Campbell | FWD | 11 in 6g | 12/10g (1·0·0·0·2·2·3·2·0·2) | 0/1g | 7/14g | 51% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Sam Lalor | FWD | 6 in 5g | 6/5g (2·1·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 4/2g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.45 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| – | Tom Lynch | KF | 6 in 5g | 14/10g (2·2·1·3·0·1·1·1·1·2) | 22/11g | 142/61g | 90% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' 81' 86' |
| – | Jack Ross | MID | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 7/39g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Kamdyn McIntosh | MID | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 5/11g | 30/104g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Maurice Rioli | FWD | 3 in 2g | 10/10g (0·0·2·1·2·0·1·1·2·1) | 2/2g | 16/23g | 55% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.52 AI 65% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Steely Green | FWD | 3 in 6g | 8/10g (3·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/5g | 46% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Sam Banks | DEF | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/15g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tim Taranto | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/8g | 23/39g | 42% | — | 🏉 31' 88' |
| – | Toby Nankervis | RUC | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 24/82g | 14% | — | 🏉 91' |
| – | Tom Brown | DEF | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·3·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/12g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Ralphsmith | FWD | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 7/26g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Hopper | MID | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 7/29g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Short | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 17/96g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jonty Faull | KF | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 77% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $19.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rhyan Mansell | FWD | 1 in 3g | 10/10g (2·3·0·1·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 19/32g | 60% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Thomson Dow | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/19g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ben Miller | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/29g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Campbell Gray | DEF | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | James Trezise | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Trainor | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nathan Broad | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/82g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Nick Vlastuin | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 16/130g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Melbourne**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | 28.5 | $1.95 | 54% | 22 ✓ |
| Christian Petracca | 26.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 28 ✗ |
| Jack Viney | 22.5 | $1.83 | 47% | 19 ✓ |
| Trent Rivers | 22.5 | $1.91 | 54% | 28 ✗ |
| Christian Salem | 22.5 | $1.75 | 43% | 34 ✗ |
| Jake Bowey | 21.5 | $1.91 | 51% | 32 ✗ |
| Kysaiah Pickett ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.87 | 88% | 18 ✓ |
| Max Gawn | 20.5 | $1.90 | 54% | 25 ✗ |
| Ed Langdon | 20.5 | $1.86 | 25% | 28 ✗ |
| Steven May | 19.5 | $1.85 | 45% | 20 ✗ |

**Richmond**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hopper | 26.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 23 ✓ |
| Tim Taranto | 26.5 | $1.87 | 48% | 22 ✓ |
| Jayden Short | 23.5 | $1.91 | 48% | 25 ✗ |
| Nick Vlastuin | 20.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 22 ✗ |
| Thomson Dow | 18.5 | $1.91 | 52% | 28 ✗ |
| Sam Lalor | 16.5 | $1.87 | 54% | 10 ✓ |
| Jack Ross | 16.5 | $1.89 | 32% | 24 ✗ |
| Nathan Broad | 16.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 9 ✓ |
| Kamdyn McIntosh | 16.5 | $1.92 | 58% | 12 ✓ |
| Toby Nankervis | 15.5 | $1.85 | 34% | 15 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)