Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
87%
Richmond
13%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne are clear favourites here at 87%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Melbourne ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Melbourne carry a 47-point ELO rating advantage (1275 vs 1228). The margin model predicts Melbourne by 28.8 points with a combined total of 175.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.0%
Line / Spread
Melbourne -21.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.0%
Total Points
Over 171.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | WLLLL | 67.6 |
Richmond | WLLLL | 67.6 |
Avg Conceded
104.6
Melbourne
114.0
Richmond
Avg Margin
-37.0
Melbourne
-46.4
Richmond
Disposals
357.0
Melbourne
337.8
Richmond
Inside 50s
50.0
Melbourne
50.0
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
87%
Melbourne predicted to win by 29 points
Predicted total: 175 · Line: +28.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.14
Team Effectiveness
+0.35
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.