AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 87% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 35.9 but the actual margin was 50 points. The game's 198 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 175. Hawthorn led 64–29 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 50. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
87%
West Coast Eagles
13%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 87%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Hawthorn carry a 39-point ELO rating advantage (1550 vs 1511). The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 35.9 points with a combined total of 175.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.03
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.7%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -56.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.7%
Total Points
Under 178.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | W W W L L | 95.1 |
West Coast Eagles | W W W L L | 85.4 |
Avg Conceded
79.6
Hawthorn
98.0
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
12.5
Hawthorn
9.0
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
379.5
Hawthorn
337.7
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
53.0
Hawthorn
42.3
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
87%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 36 points
Predicted total: 175 · Line: +35.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.14
Team Effectiveness
+0.19
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.