# Hawthorn v West Coast Eagles — AFL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hawthorn 124 – 74 West Coast Eagles

_Hawthorn demolish West Coast Eagles._

Half time: 64 – 29 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hawthorn 87% / West Coast Eagles 13% · Marvel Stadium · Sun, 27 Apr, 04:45 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Hawthorn: Jack Gunston (11' ×3 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Ginnivan (13' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mabior Chol (32' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Blake Hardwick (37'), James Worpel (38'), Nick Watson (48' Tipped ⚡), Harry Morrison (53'), Dylan Moore (77' Tipped ⚡), Josh Weddle (79'), Final quarter (34m 41s)Jack Gunston (67'), Jai Newcombe (70'), Connor Macdonald (81' ×2) · West Coast Eagles: Jake Waterman (15' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Williams (25'), Liam Ryan (58' ×3), Harley Reid (85' ×2), Matthew Owies (88'), Jamie Cripps (76' Tipped ⚡), Noah Long (86')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 87% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 13% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 35.9 predicted → 50 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hawthorn Hawks vs West Coast Eagles Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Hawthorn 124–74 West Coast Eagles in AFL Round 7 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty points up at quarter time was manageable for West Coast. Sixty-four to twenty-nine at the half was not. By the finish it was 124 to 74, a 50-point beating that started as a lead and turned into an avalanche at Marvel Stadium.

The scoreboard tells the shape of it well enough. Hawthorn led 20-13 after the first term, still a game the Eagles could have lived with. Then the middle two quarters happened. Half time read 64-29, three-quarter time 86-49, and from there Hawthorn kept adding without giving anything back, the margin blowing out from 37 to 50 across the final term.

The ruck contest set the terms early. Hawthorn won hit-outs 60 to 37, a number that lines up with the pre-match ruck rating gap of 1106 to 1051, and first use of the footy flowed from there into clearances, 45 to 36. West Coast actually rated higher in the midfield coming in, 1061 to 1015, but that edge never showed up on the stat sheet. Hawthorn had the ball in hand more often and used it better: 393 disposals to 312, at 70.3 per cent efficiency against 64.3.

Contested footy told a similar story. Hawthorn won the hard ball 142 to 126 and led the intercept count 71 to 68, a thin margin but enough to keep repeat entries flowing their way. Marks overall went 86 to 62, another gap that speaks to a team controlling territory rather than scrambling for it.

Forward of centre is where the game was actually decided. Hawthorn went inside 50 fifty-six times to fifty, not a huge gap on its own, but what happened once the ball got there was the difference. Twenty-three marks inside 50 to six is the number that matters most in this one. West Coast's forward rating wasn't far off Hawthorn's coming in, 1041 to 1049, but they couldn't get a look in once the ball entered their attacking zone. Hawthorn's defensive rating of 1101 against West Coast's 1040 showed up as exactly the kind of lockdown that gap suggests.

Add 79 tackles to 65 and it's a picture of a team that had the ball, used it cleanly, and made West Coast work for every uncontested touch they got. Hawthorn's form line coming in had them averaging 95.1 points scored and conceding 79.6, with 52.9 inside 50s a game. They beat all three of those numbers here, comfortably.

West Coast came in on the back of a rougher trot, conceding 97.9 points a game on average, and that pattern held. Nothing in their output suggests a total collapse, 74 points and 65 tackles of their own worth something, but 6 marks inside their forward 50 against 23 tells you where the game actually leaked away from them.

Alphr's model had Hawthorn at 87 per cent to win, and that call landed exactly as expected. The margin read is where it came unstuck: 35.9 points predicted, 50 actual, and the total of 198 ran 23 points hotter than the projected 175. Two from three isn't a bad night's work, but this one got away from the model just as much as it got away from West Coast.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn | 20 | 44 | 22 | 38 | 124 |
| West Coast Eagles | 13 | 16 | 20 | 25 | 74 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Hawthorn | Stat | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **393** | Disposals | 312 |
| **142** | Contested poss. | 126 |
| **45** | Clearances | 36 |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 50 |
| **86** | Marks | 62 |
| **23** | Marks inside 50 | 6 |
| **79** | Tackles | 65 |
| **60** | Hit-outs | 37 |
| **71** | Intercepts | 68 |
| **70.3%** | Disposal eff. | 64.3% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 87% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 35.9 but the actual margin was 50 points. The game's 198 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 175. Hawthorn led 64–29 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 50. The model went 2/3 on this match. Hawthorn covered the 56.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.03 (edge -9.7%) — model probability 87.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -56.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 36 · Predicted total: 175

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Hawthorn | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 46 · 43 | 43 · 69 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 83/g | 111/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.8/g | 19/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8.7/g | 9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.4% | 68.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Hawthorn | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 18 · 17 | 6 · 24 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 149/g | 91/g |
| Inside 50s | 24/g | 12.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.5% | 72.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Hawthorn | West Coast Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 10 | 3 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 2.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Disposals | 128/g | 102/g |
| Inside 50s | 15.3/g | 11.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 3/g | 0/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.2% | 70.1% |

**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Rucks 0.85/g (lg 0.51) +67% · Midfielders 3.6/g (lg 2.38) +51% · Key Forwards 4.87/g (lg 3.61) +35%
**Who scores on Hawthorn** — Defenders 1.57/g (lg 1.32) +19% · Key Forwards 3.7/g (lg 3.61) +2% · Midfielders 2.41/g (lg 2.38) +1%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hawthorn** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Gunston | KF | 13 in 4g | 27/10g (4·3·5·1·1·0·2·2·6·3) | 34/16g | 78/36g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 95% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 11' 55' 95' |
| – | Mabior Chol | KF | 10 in 6g | 15/10g (1·3·0·1·1·2·3·0·1·3) | 11/6g | 12/8g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' 92' |
| – | Nick Watson | FWD | 8 in 6g | 21/10g (3·3·4·3·0·3·2·1·0·2) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 71% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' |
| – | Dylan Moore | FWD | 7 in 6g | 14/10g (2·4·0·1·2·3·1·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 18/16g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| – | Blake Hardwick | DEF | 6 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·2·1·0·1) | 2/9g | 1/27g | 28% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | James Sicily | DEF | 5 in 6g | 8/10g (0·2·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 9/10g | 11/24g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Lloyd Meek | RUC | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/4g | 3/7g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Connor Macdonald | FWD | 3 in 4g | 9/10g (1·0·0·3·2·0·1·1·0·1) | 4/3g | 8/10g | 62% | — | 🏉 81' 95' |
| – | Jai Newcombe | MID | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 6/12g | 46% | — | 🏉 70' |
| – | Jack Ginnivan | FWD | 2 in 5g | 9/10g (2·0·2·1·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 5/4g | 11/8g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 69% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' 97' |
| – | Josh Weddle | DEF | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/7g | 28% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Harry Morrison | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/16g | 18% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | James Worpel | MID | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/6g | 7/20g | 26% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Josh Ward | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Karl Amon | DEF | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 14/20g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Massimo D'Ambrosio | MID | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/8g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Macdonald | DEF | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cam Mackenzie | MID | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Henry Hustwaite | MID | no games | 2/6g (2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Jack Scrimshaw | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/14g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jarman Impey | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 9/28g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Josh Battle | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 8/60g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tom Barrass | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 7 in 6g | 14/10g (1·3·1·2·0·1·2·2·1·1) | 13/15g | 48/36g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.75 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 6 in 4g | 12/10g (3·1·1·1·0·0·1·2·0·3) | 0/0g | 6/7g | 63% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 6 in 3g | 22/10g (2·2·3·4·1·2·2·2·0·4) | 6/6g | 10/8g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.10 AI 82% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 43' |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 6 in 4g | 11/10g (2·0·2·1·0·0·3·1·2·0) | 8/5g | 17/11g | 62% | — | 🏉 58' 73' 85' |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 4 in 6g | 4/6g (0·0·2·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Oscar Allen | KF | 4 in 5g | 13/10g (1·2·5·0·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 18/10g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 71% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 3 in 6g | 9/10g (1·1·3·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 5/4g | 27/19g | 80% | — | 🏉 88' |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | 3 in 6g | 7/10g (2·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 31% | — | 🏉 85' 69' |
| – | Jayden Hunt | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 6/9g | 6/23g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 6/14g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy McGovern | DEF | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 6/25g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 11/15g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/20g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Noah Long | FWD | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 28% | — | 🏉 86' |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/7g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cole | FWD | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/15g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Hawthorn**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | 28.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 20 ✓ |
| Karl Amon | 23.5 | $1.95 | 53% | 18 ✓ |
| James Worpel ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $2.00 | 61% | 24 ✗ |
| Cam Mackenzie | 19.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 20 ✗ |
| Josh Ward | 19.5 | $1.90 | 57% | 23 ✗ |
| Jack Scrimshaw | 18.5 | $1.89 | 41% | 5 ✓ |
| Dylan Moore ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $2.00 | 62% | 17 ✓ |
| James Sicily | 18.5 | $1.87 | 34% | 23 ✗ |

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Baker ⚡ Under | 21.5 | $1.91 | 64% | 24 ✗ |
| Jack Graham ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.96 | 66% | 14 ✓ |
| Ryan Maric ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.91 | 71% | 25 ✗ |
| Jeremy McGovern | 19.5 | $1.90 | 58% | 17 ✓ |
| Elijah Hewett ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.83 | 79% | 17 ✓ |
| Harley Reid | 17.5 | $1.80 | 53% | 19 ✗ |
| Liam Duggan | 17.5 | $1.96 | 55% | 17 ✓ |
| Tyrell Dewar ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.95 | 69% | 7 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)