# AFL Round 7 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 7 of the 2025 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 7 at a glance
- 9 matches · 20W–7L on 27 settled picks (74% strike rate) · best value +35.5% edge

## Round 7 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton v Geelong Cats | Carlton @ $2.30 | Carlton 79% | WON |
| Fremantle v Adelaide Crows | Fremantle @ $1.72 | Fremantle 82% | WON |
| GWS GIANTS v Western Bulldogs | GWS GIANTS @ $1.54 | GWS GIANTS 83% | LOST |
| Collingwood v Essendon | Collingwood @ $1.25 | Collingwood 92% | WON |
| Melbourne v Richmond | Melbourne @ $1.33 | Melbourne 87% | WON |
| Port Adelaide v North Melbourne | Port Adelaide @ $1.11 | Port Adelaide 95% | WON |
| St Kilda v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $1.45 | Brisbane Lions 64% | WON |
| Gold Coast SUNS v Sydney Swans | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.42 | Gold Coast SUNS 68% | WON |
| Hawthorn v West Coast Eagles | Hawthorn @ $1.03 | Hawthorn 87% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Carlton v Geelong Cats
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 78.9% / Geelong Cats 21.1%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $2.30 (edge +35.5%) — model probability 78.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +35.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 173.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 14 · Predicted total: 181
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r7-carlton-v-geelong-cats

### Fremantle v Adelaide Crows
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Optus Stadium · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 81.8% / Adelaide Crows 18.2%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.72 (edge +23.6%) — model probability 81.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 8 · Predicted total: 168
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r7-fremantle-v-adelaide-crows

### GWS GIANTS v Western Bulldogs
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Corroboree Group Oval Manuka · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 82.8% / Western Bulldogs 17.1%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.54 (edge +17.9%) — model probability 82.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** GWS GIANTS -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +17.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 164.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 21 · Predicted total: 171
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r7-gws-giants-v-western-bulldogs

### Collingwood v Essendon
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 92.0% / Essendon 8.0%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.25 (edge +12.0%) — model probability 92.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -24.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 155.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 36 · Predicted total: 178
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r7-collingwood-v-essendon

### Melbourne v Richmond
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · MCG · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 87.2% / Richmond 12.8%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.33 (edge +12.0%) — model probability 87.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne -21.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 171.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 29 · Predicted total: 175
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r7-melbourne-v-richmond

### Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Adelaide Oval · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 95.1% / North Melbourne 4.9%
- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.11 (edge +5.0%) — model probability 95.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 183.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 52 · Predicted total: 174
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r7-port-adelaide-v-north-melbourne

### St Kilda v Brisbane Lions
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 35.8% / Brisbane Lions 64.2%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.45 (edge -4.7%) — model probability 64.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 17 · Predicted total: 170
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r7-st-kilda-v-brisbane-lions

### Gold Coast SUNS v Sydney Swans
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · People First Stadium · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 68.5% / Sydney Swans 31.5%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.42 (edge -2.0%) — model probability 68.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -15.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 10 · Predicted total: 176
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r7-gold-coast-suns-v-sydney-swans

### Hawthorn v West Coast Eagles
Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT · Marvel Stadium · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 87.4% / West Coast Eagles 12.6%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.03 (edge -9.7%) — model probability 87.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn -56.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hawthorn by 36 · Predicted total: 175
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r7-hawthorn-v-west-coast-eagles

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 81.9% | 177/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 76.9% | 166/216 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 60.2% | 130/216 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/6 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/6.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/8 (markdown: /afl/2025/round/8.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/2025/round/7
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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC