# Collingwood v Essendon — AFL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Collingwood 107 – 66 Essendon

_Collingwood see off Essendon._

Half time: 41 – 33 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Collingwood 92% / Essendon 8% · MCG · Fri, 25 Apr, 03:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Collingwood: Tim Membrey (5' ×2 1st Tipped 🎯), Harry Perryman (10'), Jamie Elliott (32' ×5 Tipped ⚡), Brayden Maynard (52'), Bobby Hill (69' Tipped ⚡), Jordan de Goey (83' Tipped ⚡), Ned Long (87'), Darcy Cameron (65'), Will Hoskin-Elliott (83'), Brody Mihocek (88' Tipped ⚡) · Essendon: Peter Wright (9' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Kyle Langford (39' Tipped ⚡), Sam Durham (42' ×2), Archie Perkins (46'), Isaac Kako (66'), Ben Hobbs (77'), Nate Caddy (67')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 92% | Won |
| Essendon | 8% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 36.0 predicted → 41 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Collingwood Magpies vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Collingwood 107–66 Essendon in AFL Round 7 at MCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Collingwood led from the opening bounce and never gave it up, but Essendon had a red-hot go at clawing back into it before the game got away from them for good. Final score: Collingwood 107, Essendon 66. A 41-point win that looked a lot tighter at half time than the final margin suggests.

The Pies were out to a 22-7 lead at the first change, built on winning first use of the ball rather than any flashy passage of play. Essendon hit back hard in the second term, outscoring Collingwood 26-19 to cut the margin to eight points at half time, 41-33. For twenty minutes there, this had the shape of a real contest, and Essendon looked like they might run the Pies down.

Whatever Collingwood said at the main break worked. The third quarter went 34-18 their way, stretching the margin back out to 24 points at the final change, 75-51. From there Essendon were chasing a lead that kept growing rather than shrinking. The last term was 32-15, Collingwood again, and by full time it was academic.

The clearance count tells you where the game turned: 48 to 34 in Collingwood's favour, backed up by 59 inside 50s to 43. Once they were winning first use of the ball that often, the forward-half numbers followed, marks inside 50 went 16 to 8, and that's a tough deficit to overturn when you're only getting the ball forward two-thirds as often as the other mob. Disposal efficiency mattered too. Collingwood hit targets at 73.2 per cent to Essendon's 65.1, the difference between a forward half full of clean options and one full of scrambling.

Essendon did win one battle outright, the ruck, taking 50 hit-outs to 39, and they edged the intercept count 76 to 74. Neither showed up on the scoreboard. Hit-outs without clearances are just a line on a stat sheet, and Collingwood's 48-34 edge at the coalface made sure of that. Essendon also laid fewer tackles, 49 to Collingwood's 62, which tells its own story about who was doing the chasing.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 22 | 19 | 34 | 32 | 107 |
| Essendon | 7 | 26 | 18 | 15 | 66 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Collingwood | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| **375** | Disposals | 349 |
| **136** | Contested poss. | 131 |
| **48** | Clearances | 34 |
| **59** | Inside 50s | 43 |
| **95** | Marks | 79 |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 8 |
| **62** | Tackles | 49 |
| 39 | Hit-outs | **50** |
| 74 | Intercepts | **76** |
| **73.2%** | Disposal eff. | 65.1% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 92% probability. The predicted margin of 36.0 was reasonable against the actual 41-point result. Total score prediction of 178 was close to the actual 173, within 5 points. Collingwood led 41–33 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 41. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.25 (edge +12.0%) — model probability 92.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood -24.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 155.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 36 · Predicted total: 178

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Collingwood | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 18th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 65 · 34 | 29 · 49 |
| Goal Assists | 5.7/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 97/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.7/g | 14.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11/g | 5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69% | 69% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Collingwood | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 19 | 26 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 159/g |
| Inside 50s | 20.3/g | 26.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1/g | 4.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.5% | 71.9% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Collingwood | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 6 · 3 | 7 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposals | 112/g | 132/g |
| Inside 50s | 12.5/g | 9.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.8% | 78.3% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.49/g (lg 1.31) +14% · Forwards 5.04/g (lg 4.45) +13% · Key Forwards 3.92/g (lg 3.6) +9%
**Who scores on Collingwood** — Defenders 1.22/g (lg 1.31) -7% · Key Forwards 3.27/g (lg 3.6) -9% · Forwards 4.04/g (lg 4.45) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Collingwood** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bobby Hill | FWD | 10 in 6g | 15/10g (1·2·0·2·1·2·2·0·3·2) | 2/5g | 47/40g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| – | Brody Mihocek | KF | 10 in 5g | 18/10g (3·0·2·2·1·2·3·0·3·2) | 21/11g | 133/81g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.19 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 88' |
| – | Jamie Elliott | FWD | 10 in 6g | 13/10g (1·1·0·1·2·2·1·0·3·2) | 27/15g | 191/122g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' 76' 82' 76' 85' |
| – | Daniel McStay | KF | 8 in 6g | 15/10g (3·1·1·2·0·3·1·0·1·3) | 6/8g | 34/31g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Tim Membrey | KF | 7 in 5g | 16/10g (2·1·3·1·2·1·4·0·1·1) | 17/12g | 43/19g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $13.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 36' |
| – | Beau McCreery | FWD | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·2·1) | 6/6g | 38/49g | 48% | — | — |
| – | Jordan De Goey | FWD | 4 in 3g | 12/10g (0·2·2·0·1·1·2·0·2·2) | 12/13g | 117/108g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.44 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 83' |
| – | Brayden Maynard | DEF | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/17g | 13/129g | 14% | — | 🏉 52' |
| – | Steele Sidebottom | MID | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 18/21g | 96/171g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Sullivan | FWD | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Ned Long | FWD | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/11g | 32% | — | 🏉 87' |
| – | Nick Daicos | MID | 2 in 6g | 7/10g (1·0·2·2·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 23/47g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Will Hoskin-Elliott | FWD | 2 in 3g | 9/10g (1·0·2·2·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 8/18g | 99/108g | 58% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Dan Houston | DEF | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/10g | 4/19g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Harry Perryman | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/18g | 8% | — | 🏉 10' |
| – | Jack Crisp | MID | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 10/19g | 48/142g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Josh Daicos | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/10g | 30/75g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Lipinski | FWD | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 25/47g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Billy Frampton | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 4/20g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Cameron | RUC | 0 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/7g | 35/58g | 34% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Isaac Quaynor | DEF | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/64g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Howe | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/16g | 56/156g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Scott Pendlebury | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/23g | 79/173g | 24% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | 6 in 1g | 17/10g (4·0·1·0·2·2·2·0·0·6) | 18/10g | 42/27g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' 63' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 6 in 5g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·4·0·0·0) | 7/17g | 34/73g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jye Menzie | FWD | 5 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·4·0) | 1/2g | 10/13g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 4 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 4/6g | 14/27g | 36% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 4 in 5g | 8/10g (0·3·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 6/8g | 31/24g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 4 in 5g | 8/10g (0·1·3·0·0·0·0·2·2·0) | 1/1g | 2/6g | 44% | — | 🏉 67' |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | 4 in 5g | 10/10g (0·2·0·3·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 3/6g | 19/26g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (1·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/2g | 40% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 3 in 5g | 7/10g (1·2·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 7/12g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/5g | 5/14g | 22% | — | 🏉 77' |
| – | Dylan Shiel | MID | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/15g | 12/43g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Jones | DEF | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 15/17g | 60% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Langford | DEF | 2 in 1g | 15/10g (1·2·2·2·0·2·0·1·3·2) | 14/11g | 47/46g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.33 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/11g | 7/39g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 5g | 2/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 6/49g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/32g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 7/27g | 28% | — | 🏉 42' 44' |
| – | Todd Goldstein | RUC | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/14g | 11/25g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/27g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Collingwood**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 30.5 | $1.78 | 58% | 31 ✗ |
| Steele Sidebottom ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.78 | 67% | 35 ✗ |
| Josh Daicos | 25.5 | $1.94 | 56% | 36 ✗ |
| Scott Pendlebury | 23.5 | $1.91 | 59% | 31 ✗ |
| Dan Houston | 23.5 | $1.60 | 63% | 15 ✓ |
| Ned Long ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.95 | 95% | 22 ✗ |
| Patrick Lipinski | 19.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 20 ✗ |
| Jack Crisp | 19.5 | $1.90 | 41% | 17 ✓ |
| Darcy Cameron | 16.5 | $1.87 | 57% | 16 ✓ |
| Jordan De Goey | 16.5 | $1.75 | 45% | 14 ✓ |
| Harry Perryman | 16.5 | $1.75 | 52% | 13 ✓ |
| Brayden Maynard | 15.5 | $1.75 | 53% | 16 ✗ |
| Jeremy Howe | 14.5 | $1.89 | 42% | 21 ✗ |
| Isaac Quaynor | 13.5 | $1.75 | 59% | 10 ✓ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett ⚡ Under | 31.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 25 ✓ |
| Nic Martin | 25.5 | $1.87 | 61% | 17 ✓ |
| Dylan Shiel ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.78 | 73% | 19 ✓ |
| Sam Durham | 23.5 | $1.77 | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 22.5 | $1.77 | 54% | 18 ✓ |
| Will Setterfield ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.77 | 72% | 19 ✓ |
| Jordan Ridley | 20.5 | $1.89 | 57% | 18 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 20.5 | $1.89 | 52% | 17 ✓ |
| Xavier Duursma | 18.5 | $1.87 | 52% | 19 ✗ |
| Archie Roberts | 18.5 | $1.88 | 46% | 25 ✗ |
| Jade Gresham ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.75 | 67% | 12 ✓ |
| Archie Perkins ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 77% | 14 ✓ |
| Ben Hobbs ⚡ Under | 15.5 | $1.87 | 73% | 20 ✗ |
| Jaxon Prior ⚡ Under | 14.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 9 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)