AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 38 points. The game's 196 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 176. Gold Coast SUNS trailed 42–59 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 117–79. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
68%
Sydney Swans
32%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sydney Swans. The model sees Gold Coast SUNS ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 9.7 points with a combined total of 176.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.42
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.0%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS -15.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-2.0%
Total Points
Over 175.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | W L L L L | 82.1 |
Sydney Swans | W W L L L | 88.1 |
Avg Conceded
67.1
Gold Coast SUNS
74.5
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
3.8
Gold Coast SUNS
21.3
Sydney Swans
Disposals
344.7
Gold Coast SUNS
333.7
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
48.9
Gold Coast SUNS
44.1
Sydney Swans
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 176 · Line: +9.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.30
Team Effectiveness
+0.18
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.