# Gold Coast SUNS v Sydney Swans — AFL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Gold Coast SUNS 117 – 79 Sydney Swans

_Gold Coast SUNS fight back to outshine Sydney Swans._

Half time: 42 – 59 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 68% / Sydney Swans 32% · People First Stadium · Sun, 27 Apr, 01:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Gold Coast SUNS: Ben King (7' ×5 1st Tipped 🎯), Bailey Humphrey (20' ×4), Daniel Rioli (38' ×2), Jed Walter (59' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ben Long (79' Tipped ⚡), Final quarter (32m 5s)Matt Rowell (66'), Nick Holman (69') · Sydney Swans: Peter Ladhams (9'), Hayden McLean (10' Tipped ⚡), Corey Warner (12'), Isaac Heeney (17' Tipped ⚡), Chad Warner (25' ×2), James Jordon (32'), Braeden Campbell (47' ×2), Nick Blakey (81' ×3)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 68% | Won |
| Sydney Swans | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.7 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast SUNS vs Sydney Swans Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Gold Coast SUNS 117–79 Sydney Swans in AFL Round 7 at People First Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sydney Swans led 59-42 at half-time at People First Stadium, and on paper that scoreline made sense. They arrived with the better recent form, a 21.3-point average winning margin over their last five games compared to Gold Coast's 3.8, and a ruck rating of 1034 against Gold Coast's 949 that pointed to clean supply out of the middle. Gold Coast had actually been in the contest early, trailing only 39-14 at quarter time before Sydney stretched it out further across the second term. For a half, the model's numbers and the ladder logic were both tracking true.

Then the third quarter happened. Gold Coast outscored Sydney 42 to 1 in it, turning a 17-point deficit into a 24-point lead by the three-quarter time siren, 84-60. There's no need to dress that up. One team kept playing the game the way it's meant to be played, and the other one simply stopped scoring for 30 minutes.

The final margin was 117-79. Gold Coast didn't ease off in the last quarter either, adding 33 to Sydney's 19 to see the job out. A 38-point win from a side that had trailed by 17 at the long break is the sort of result that demands a proper look at the numbers behind it.

The clearance count tells you where the third term was won. Gold Coast finished plus-9 there, 39 to 30, and plus-21 in contested possession, 131 to 110. That's despite Sydney actually winning the hit-out count 37 to 35, which lines up with their much stronger ruck rating heading in. Winning the taps but losing the clearances by that margin says Gold Coast's midfield group beat Sydney to the football at ground level, ruck advantage or not.

Forward line efficiency did the rest. Gold Coast had 13 marks inside 50 to Sydney's 9, off 56 inside 50s to 52, and turned that territory into scoreboard pressure Sydney couldn't answer.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast SUNS | 14 | 28 | 42 | 33 | 117 |
| Sydney Swans | 39 | 20 | 1 | 19 | 79 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Gold Coast SUNS | Stat | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| 342 | Disposals | **355** |
| **131** | Contested poss. | 110 |
| **39** | Clearances | 30 |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 52 |
| 83 | Marks | **96** |
| **13** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| 51 | Tackles | 51 |
| 35 | Hit-outs | **37** |
| **65** | Intercepts | 63 |
| 72.7% | Disposal eff. | **73.6%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 38 points. The game's 196 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 176. Gold Coast SUNS trailed 42–59 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 117–79. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.42 (edge -2.0%) — model probability 68.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -15.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 10 · Predicted total: 176

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sydney Swans lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Sydney Swans | 100 – 68 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2024 | R6 | Sydney Swans | 110 – 57 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2023 | R22 | Sydney Swans | 114 – 90 | Gold Coast SUNS |
| 2023 | R1 | Gold Coast SUNS | 61 – 110 | Sydney Swans |
| 2022 | R8 | Sydney Swans | 61 – 75 | Gold Coast SUNS |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 66 · 41 | 48 · 48 |
| Goal Assists | 7.6/g | 3.3/g |
| Disposals | 118/g | 114/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.4/g | 16.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 12.4/g | 7.5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 70.7% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 10 · 10 | 19 · 15 |
| Goal Assists | 3.4/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 22.4/g | 23.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.6/g | 2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.7% | 68.6% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Gold Coast SUNS | Sydney Swans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 3 | 5 · 9 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 1.7/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 17/g | 14.7/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 78% | 76.5% |

**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.64/g (lg 0.51) +25% · Forwards 4.43/g (lg 4.45) +0% · Midfielders 2.23/g (lg 2.38) -6%
**Who scores on Gold Coast SUNS** — Defenders 1.57/g (lg 1.32) +19% · Rucks 0.53/g (lg 0.51) +4% · Forwards 4.47/g (lg 4.45) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at People First Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Gold Coast SUNS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ben King | KF | 18 in 5g | 28/10g (1·3·3·2·1·6·4·2·5·1) | 13/6g | 85/40g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 90% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.38 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 69' 95' 71' 79' |
| – | Ben Long | FWD | 13 in 5g | 20/10g (1·3·0·0·3·4·1·2·3·3) | 2/4g | 11/17g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| – | Touk Miller | FWD | 8 in 5g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·3·1·1·1) | 4/13g | 26/83g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Will Graham | FWD | 8 in 5g | 12/10g (1·1·0·0·2·1·2·2·1·2) | 0/1g | 5/8g | 63% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.60 AI 61% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jed Walter | KF | 6 in 4g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·3·1·1) | 1/1g | 7/6g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.31 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' 62' 75' |
| – | Ethan Read | KF | 5 in 5g | 8/9g (1·2·0·0·2·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/2g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.50 AI 67% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jake Rogers | FWD | 4 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Sam Flanders | MID | 4 in 4g | 11/10g (0·1·0·2·2·2·1·0·2·1) | 3/4g | 11/31g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Weller | MID | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 7/7g | 14/41g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Bailey Humphrey | FWD | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 9/17g | 42% | — | 🏉 20' 39' 87' 93' |
| – | Daniel Rioli | DEF | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·2·0·0·0·0) | 7/11g | 9/12g | 20% | — | 🏉 38' 76' |
| – | John Noble | DEF | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Ben Ainsworth | FWD | 1 in 4g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/8g | 64/56g | 62% | — | — |
| – | Jarrod Witts | RUC | 1 in 5g | 6/10g (1·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 11/65g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Joel Jeffrey | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 3/9g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Matt Rowell | MID | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 15/34g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Nick Holman | FWD | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/7g | 33/50g | 42% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Noah Anderson | MID | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 24/44g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Bodhi Uwland | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Connor Budarick | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/20g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Mac Andrew | DEF | 0 in 4g | 8/10g (0·0·3·4·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/16g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Sam Collins | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/48g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Wil Powell | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 7/46g | 4% | — | — |

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 10 in 6g | 13/10g (0·2·0·1·1·1·1·4·1·2) | 12/9g | 5/7g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 66% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 8 in 4g | 11/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·3·2) | 8/6g | 6/5g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 7 in 6g | 11/10g (1·0·2·1·2·2·1·2·0·0) | 5/6g | 1/2g | 74% | — | 🏉 12' 25' 52' |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 6 in 6g | 15/10g (3·3·2·1·0·2·0·0·2·2) | 13/11g | 9/6g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.36 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $17.50 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| – | Tom Hanily | FWD | 6 in 6g | 6/6g (0·1·1·2·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 28% | — | 🏉 47' 55' |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 12' 25' 52' |
| – | Aaron Francis | KF | 3 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 2/7g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Peter Ladhams | RUC | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 38% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 3/10g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/7g | 14% | — | 🏉 81' 86' 88' |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 5/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Ben Paton | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 3/5g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 0 in 3g | 2/8g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 18% | — | 🏉 32' |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/7g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Gold Coast SUNS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | 27.5 | $1.89 | 52% | 21 ✓ |
| Matt Rowell ⚡ Under | 26.5 | $1.94 | 67% | 16 ✓ |
| Touk Miller | 25.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 24 ✓ |
| Sam Flanders | 23.5 | $1.88 | 50% | 21 ✓ |
| John Noble ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 30 ✗ |
| Daniel Rioli | 20.5 | $1.94 | 58% | 21 ✗ |
| Ben Ainsworth | 16.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 15 ✓ |
| Joel Jeffrey ⚡ Under | 16.5 | $1.85 | 69% | 14 ✓ |

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.82 | 75% | 20 ✓ |
| Matt Roberts ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.91 | 72% | 28 ✗ |
| Chad Warner ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 62% | 24 ✗ |
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 99% | 18 ✓ |
| Jake Lloyd | 20.5 | $1.89 | 51% | 28 ✗ |
| Nick Blakey | 20.5 | $1.87 | 60% | 17 ✓ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.88 | 74% | 20 ✓ |
| Riley Bice ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.85 | 73% | 20 ✓ |
| Brodie Grundy ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.96 | 63% | 9 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)