AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 82% probability. The predicted margin of 8.1 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The game's 152 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 168. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
82%
Adelaide Crows
18%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 82%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Adelaide Crows. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 8.1 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.72
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.6%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.6%
Total Points
Under 177.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | W W L L L | 74.9 |
Adelaide Crows | W W W W L | 89.8 |
Avg Conceded
72.3
Fremantle
67.4
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
20.4
Fremantle
28.4
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
359.1
Fremantle
366.1
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
55.2
Fremantle
51.2
Adelaide Crows
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
82%
Fremantle predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +8.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.05
Team Effectiveness
-0.04
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.