# Fremantle v Adelaide Crows — AFL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Fremantle 85 – 67 Adelaide Crows

_Fremantle see off Adelaide Crows._

Half time: 54 – 34 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Fremantle 82% / Adelaide Crows 18% · Optus Stadium · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Fremantle: Shai Bolton (12'), Michael Frederick (16' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jye Amiss (19' Tipped ⚡), Oscar McDonald (29'), Hayden Young (31'), Josh Treacy (37' Tipped ⚡), Murphy Reid (89'), Sam Switkowski (90') · Adelaide Crows: Jake Soligo (9' 1st), Izak Rankine (23' Tipped ⚡), Josh Rachele (39' Tipped ⚡), Riley Thilthorpe (50' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Alex Neal-Bullen (68'), Taylor Walker (83' ×2 Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 82% | Won |
| Adelaide Crows | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.1 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Fremantle 85–67 Adelaide Crows in AFL Round 7 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time had Fremantle up 54-34 at Optus Stadium, a 20-point break that felt tidy rather than terminal. Adelaide had actually won the second term, outscoring the home side to trim what had been a 25-point margin after the opener. Nothing about it screamed blowout just yet.

Then the third quarter happened. Fremantle piled on 26 points to Adelaide's 4, turning a manageable gap into an 80-38 canyon by three-quarter time. That's the passage that decided the contest. Whatever plan Adelaide had for containing the surge, it didn't survive that twenty-minute stretch.

The final quarter told a different story again, and on its own would have looked like an Adelaide win. The Crows scored 29 to Fremantle's 5, clawing the margin back from 42 points down to 18. Full time: Fremantle 85, Adelaide Crows 67. A genuine fightback, just one that started too late to matter.

The stat sheet explains both halves of that story. Fremantle won the clearance count 38 to 30 and the inside 50 count 53 to 42, and that territory advantage is exactly what let them run away with it through the middle third of the game. Adelaide, to their credit, brought the harder squeeze, laying 72 tackles to Fremantle's 53, and they were the cleaner side going forward, converting 14 marks inside 50 against Fremantle's 7. That efficiency is what fuelled the final-term rally once Fremantle's pressure eased.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 38 | 16 | 26 | 5 | 85 |
| Adelaide Crows | 13 | 21 | 4 | 29 | 67 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Fremantle | Stat | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| **340** | Disposals | 326 |
| **128** | Contested poss. | 122 |
| **38** | Clearances | 30 |
| **53** | Inside 50s | 42 |
| 74 | Marks | **81** |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| 53 | Tackles | **72** |
| **38** | Hit-outs | 37 |
| 51 | Intercepts | **54** |
| **70.5%** | Disposal eff. | 70.4% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 82% probability. The predicted margin of 8.1 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The game's 152 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 168. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.72 (edge +23.6%) — model probability 81.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Fremantle -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 8 · Predicted total: 168

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Fremantle | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 52 · 49 | 74 · 46 |
| Goal Assists | 4.2/g | 6.7/g |
| Disposals | 80/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.7/g | 22/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 9.5/g | 10.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.4% | 70.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Fremantle | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 20 · 23 | 22 · 22 |
| Goal Assists | 5.3/g | 5.5/g |
| Disposals | 158/g | 146/g |
| Inside 50s | 30.2/g | 25.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.8/g | 2.7/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.5% | 70.1% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Fremantle | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 5 | 3 · 4 |
| Goal Assists | 1.3/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposals | 115/g | 121/g |
| Inside 50s | 9.3/g | 8.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.7/g | 0.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 83.1% | 79.5% |

**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.44/g (lg 1.32) +9% · Midfielders 2.5/g (lg 2.37) +5% · Forwards 4.4/g (lg 4.45) -1%
**Who scores on Fremantle** — Midfielders 2.56/g (lg 2.37) +8% · Key Forwards 3.54/g (lg 3.6) -2% · Forwards 4.1/g (lg 4.45) -8%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Fremantle** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Treacy | KF | 18 in 6g | 28/10g (1·3·3·3·1·4·3·3·6·1) | 2/3g | 47/32g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $8.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' |
| – | Jye Amiss | KF | 9 in 6g | 16/10g (4·1·1·1·0·1·4·1·0·3) | 3/2g | 46/28g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' |
| – | Michael Frederick | FWD | 9 in 6g | 15/10g (1·1·3·1·2·0·1·3·3·0) | 3/3g | 53/46g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 76' |
| – | Murphy Reid | FWD | 7 in 6g | 7/6g (4·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 67% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Shai Bolton | MID | 7 in 5g | 14/10g (0·1·2·3·1·0·0·2·2·3) | 3/5g | 23/12g | 74% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Isaiah Dudley | FWD | 4 in 4g | 4/4g (2·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/2g | 75% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Brayshaw | MID | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/7g | 29/78g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Hayden Young | MID | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 10/40g | 26% | — | 🏉 31' |
| – | Jeremy Sharp | FWD | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 6/16g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sean Darcy | RUC | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 21/56g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Alex Pearce | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 1/57g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Brennan Cox | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/4g | 21/57g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Serong | MID | 1 in 6g | 6/10g (0·3·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 20/56g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Clark | DEF | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 7/42g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Johnson | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/23g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McDonald | DEF | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 10% | — | 🏉 29' |
| – | Corey Wagner | MID | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/14g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Heath Chapman | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/27g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Joshua Draper | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Karl Worner | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Ryan | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/79g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quinton Narkle | FWD | no games | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Sam Switkowski | FWD | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 29/46g | 50% | — | 🏉 90' |

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 16 in 6g | 25/10g (3·2·1·3·3·3·3·5·1·1) | 2/2g | 2/2g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.05 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' 57' 77' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 14 in 6g | 22/10g (3·2·1·2·1·1·4·4·2·2) | 23/14g | 13/5g | 94% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 89% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 83' 89' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 12 in 6g | 18/10g (1·3·1·1·1·4·2·1·3·1) | 1/6g | 2/4g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.21 AI 77% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 7 in 6g | 14/10g (2·2·1·2·2·2·0·0·2·1) | 5/4g | 6/5g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' |
| – | Josh Rachele | FWD | 6 in 3g | 17/10g (0·1·3·1·3·2·1·2·4·0) | 8/3g | 3/2g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 78% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 8/12g | 46% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 2/3g | 36% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Sid Draper | MID | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 20% | — | — |
| – | James Peatling | MID | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/4g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/6g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Matt Crouch | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 0/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 3/5g | 6% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Fremantle**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | 29.5 | $1.90 | 60% | 37 ✗ |
| Caleb Serong ⚡ Under | 28.5 | $1.89 | 64% | 32 ✗ |
| Jordan Clark ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.92 | 66% | 27 ✗ |
| Hayden Young ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $2.00 | 61% | 20 ✓ |
| Luke Ryan | 20.5 | $1.95 | 49% | 23 ✗ |
| Shai Bolton ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.91 | 69% | 22 ✗ |
| Matthew Johnson | 16.5 | $1.83 | 60% | 27 ✗ |
| Murphy Reid | 14.5 | $1.85 | 54% | 6 ✓ |

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Crouch | 28.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 18 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson | 25.5 | $1.89 | 58% | 21 ✓ |
| Rory Laird | 24.5 | $1.90 | 50% | 27 ✗ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.94 | 71% | 18 ✓ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 78% | 19 ✓ |
| Mitchell Hinge ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 65% | 10 ✓ |
| James Peatling ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.87 | 72% | 18 ✓ |
| Wayne Milera | 17.5 | $1.88 | 60% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)