# St Kilda v Brisbane Lions — AFL Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Kilda 73 – 118 Brisbane Lions

_Brisbane Lions run down St Kilda._

Half time: 22 – 56 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Kilda 36% / Brisbane Lions 64% · Marvel Stadium · Sat, 26 Apr, 01:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — St Kilda: Rowan Marshall (27'), Jack Higgins (30' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Mason Wood (68'), Max Hall (93'), Isaac Keeler (73'), Anthony Caminiti (84'), Darcy Wilson (89'), Cooper Sharman (90' Tipped ⚡) · Brisbane Lions: Lachie Neale (9' ×3 1st), Zac Bailey (25' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Eric Hipwood (29' ×4 Tipped ⚡), Logan Morris (36' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Sam Day (89'), Oscar McInerney (95'), Jarrod Berry (79'), Hugh McCluggage (83'), Callum Ah Chee (87' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 64% | Won |
| St Kilda | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 16.9 predicted → 45 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Kilda Saints vs Brisbane Lions Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

St Kilda 73–118 Brisbane Lions in AFL Round 7 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eighteen points up at quarter time. That's how this one opened, Brisbane Lions 30 to St Kilda's 12, and the margin only grew from there. By half time it was 56 to 22, a 34 point buffer, and the game had already stopped being a contest in any meaningful sense.

St Kilda never let the gap stay still, but not in the way that helps you. Three-quarter time had it at 85 to 47, a 38 point margin, and the Saints' best quarter of the night, 26 points in the last, arrived far too late to matter. Final score: Brisbane Lions 118, St Kilda 73. A 45 point win, and the scoreboard pressure was total from the first bounce.

The clearance count tells you why St Kilda spent the whole game chasing. Brisbane won clearances 52 to 34, and from there it's just arithmetic: more first use of the ball, more inside 50s, 66 to 43, and more of it landing cleanly, 18 marks inside 50 against St Kilda's 7. That's not a rough patch, that's a team getting first look at contest after contest and cashing it in forward of centre.

St Kilda actually won the ruck battle, 47 hit-outs to 41, which lines up with their higher ruck rating coming in, 1005 to 953. Didn't matter. Winning the tap means nothing if you lose the clearance that follows it 52-34, and Brisbane's midfield rating edge, 1022 to 1002, showed up exactly where you'd expect: at the coalface, not in the hit-out count.

Marks tell a similar story everywhere on the ground, 95 to 77 overall, and disposal efficiency barely separated them, 73.4 to 72.7. St Kilda even out-disposed themselves reasonably well, 388 to 410 isn't a hiding on raw numbers. But tackles were level at 57 apiece and intercepts were dead even at 59 each, so the differences that actually decided it were all inside forward 50, where Brisbane's forward line did what St Kilda's forward rating, 1021 to Brisbane's 933 on paper, suggested St Kilda should have owned.

Brisbane arrived on the better recent run too, an average margin of 28.98 across their last five against St Kilda's 14.13, and an average score near 95 points a game. St Kilda's last five had them conceding almost 94 a game. Put those two lines next to Saturday's 118 and 73 and it's not exactly a shock read in hindsight.

Alphr's model backed Brisbane Lions at 64% and got the winner right. The margin was the problem: 16.9 points predicted, 45 actual, and the total came in at 191 against a projected 170. Two from three on this one. The winner call held up fine. The size of it didn't.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda | 12 | 10 | 25 | 26 | 73 |
| Brisbane Lions | 30 | 26 | 29 | 33 | 118 |

**Key Match Stats**

| St Kilda | Stat | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 388 | Disposals | **410** |
| 134 | Contested poss. | **142** |
| 34 | Clearances | **52** |
| 43 | Inside 50s | **66** |
| 77 | Marks | **95** |
| 7 | Marks inside 50 | **18** |
| 57 | Tackles | 57 |
| **47** | Hit-outs | 41 |
| 59 | Intercepts | 59 |
| 72.7% | Disposal eff. | **73.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.9 but the actual margin was 45 points. The game's 191 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 170. Brisbane Lions led 22–56 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 45. The model went 2/3 on this match. Brisbane Lions covered the 14.5-point line.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.45 (edge -4.7%) — model probability 64.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Brisbane Lions +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 17 · Predicted total: 170

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | St Kilda | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 45 · 56 | 54 · 52 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 4.5/g |
| Disposals | 63/g | 79/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.3/g | 18.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 6.8/g | 9/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.8% | 65.2% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | St Kilda | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 19 · 26 | 19 · 13 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 3.7/g |
| Disposals | 174/g | 166/g |
| Inside 50s | 24.3/g | 25/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 4.2/g | 2.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70% | 67.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | St Kilda | Brisbane Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 14 · 3 | 6 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 3.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Disposals | 124/g | 116/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.2/g | 11.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 75.4% | 80% |

**Who scores on Brisbane Lions** — Forwards 4.41/g (lg 4.45) -1% · Key Forwards 3.42/g (lg 3.6) -5% · Midfielders 2.14/g (lg 2.37) -10%
**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.43/g (lg 2.37) +3% · Forwards 4.06/g (lg 4.45) -9% · Key Forwards 3.26/g (lg 3.6) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 17 in 6g | 23/10g (0·1·3·2·2·4·3·3·2·3) | 10/7g | 81/55g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 79' |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 11 in 5g | 15/10g (1·0·1·2·0·2·4·2·0·3) | 2/6g | 40/34g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 9 in 6g | 12/10g (0·0·1·2·2·2·3·1·1·0) | 10/11g | 76/72g | 56% | — | 🏉 68' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 6 in 4g | 15/10g (2·3·0·2·2·0·2·1·3·0) | 0/4g | 30/29g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 90' |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 6 in 6g | 6/6g (2·0·2·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 67% | — | 🏉 93' |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 5 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·1) | 1/11g | 38/99g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Lance Collard | DEF | 5 in 5g | 5/8g (0·0·0·2·2·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/4g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 5 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·3·0) | 1/4g | 4/40g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 11/16g | 49% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/15g | 18/73g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Keeler | KF | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 67% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 5/30g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 1 in 6g | 8/10g (2·3·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 41/69g | 44% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 4/36g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 0 in 6g | 5/10g (3·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 19/21g | 53% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/68g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dougal Howard | DEF | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/46g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/15g | 27/126g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 0 in 5g | 5/10g (3·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 36/89g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 3/99g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/35g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Jones | MID | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 10/46g | 14% | — | — |

**Brisbane Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Eric Hipwood | KF | 12 in 6g | 15/10g (0·1·1·1·1·2·1·1·5·2) | 10/11g | 39/21g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 81% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' 32' 38' 71' |
| – | Zac Bailey | FWD | 12 in 6g | 16/10g (1·1·2·0·4·1·1·3·3·0) | 7/8g | 18/14g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 79% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' 100' 76' |
| – | Logan Morris | KF | 11 in 6g | 17/10g (2·0·2·2·1·3·1·2·4·0) | 5/2g | 5/3g | 77% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.14 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' 62' |
| – | Callum Ah Chee | FWD | 7 in 6g | 17/10g (2·1·3·4·1·3·0·1·2·0) | 6/9g | 7/12g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 77% ✓ Scored | 🏉 87' |
| – | Cam Rayner | FWD | 5 in 6g | 11/10g (3·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·2·2) | 11/9g | 16/16g | 58% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Cameron | FWD | 4 in 4g | 15/10g (1·3·2·2·2·1·1·3·0·0) | 22/13g | 42/21g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 82% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $12.75 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dayne Zorko | DEF | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 11/15g | 25/37g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Levi Ashcroft | MID | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Oscar McInerney | RUC | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 2/9g | 7/15g | 32% | — | 🏉 95' |
| – | Will Ashcroft | MID | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Hugh McCluggage | MID | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 8/11g | 13/22g | 44% | — | 🏉 83' |
| – | Jarrod Berry | MID | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 7/9g | 7/17g | 24% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Jaspa Fletcher | DEF | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/5g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Josh Dunkley | MID | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 38/62g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilmot | DEF | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Neale | MID | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 15/30g | 20% | — | 🏉 9' 41' 91' |
| – | Sam Day | KF | 1 in 5g | 11/10g (1·3·3·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/9g | 11/15g | 52% | — | 🏉 89' |
| – | Darcy Gardiner | DEF | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/8g | 1/20g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Harris Andrews | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/27g | 2% | — | — |
| – | James Tunstill | MID | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kai Lohmann | FWD | 0 in 2g | 14/10g (0·0·2·3·2·2·1·4·0·0) | 2/4g | 3/4g | 57% | — | — |
| – | Noah Answerth | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Lester | DEF | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 9/29g | 2% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Macrae ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.82 | 76% | 26 ✓ |
| Jack Sinclair ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.88 | 72% | 29 ✗ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.82 | 70% | 32 ✗ |
| Jack Steele ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.55 | 75% | 29 ✗ |
| Callum Wilkie | 18.5 | $1.78 | 63% | 21 ✗ |
| Marcus Windhager ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.95 | 63% | 21 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill ⚡ Under | 17.5 | $1.87 | 64% | 33 ✗ |

**Brisbane Lions**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | 27.5 | $1.82 | 47% | 31 ✗ |
| Dayne Zorko | 25.5 | $1.82 | 52% | 34 ✗ |
| Hugh McCluggage | 25.5 | $2.00 | 59% | 21 ✓ |
| Will Ashcroft | 24.5 | $1.92 | 55% | 35 ✗ |
| Josh Dunkley | 24.5 | $1.87 | 58% | 24 ✓ |
| Jarrod Berry | 20.5 | $1.87 | 49% | 19 ✓ |
| Jaspa Fletcher ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.87 | 82% | 20 ✓ |
| Levi Ashcroft | 19.5 | $1.95 | 48% | 23 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2025-r7-st-kilda-v-brisbane-lions
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)