AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.9 but the actual margin was 45 points. The game's 191 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 170. Brisbane Lions led 22–56 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 45. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
36%
Brisbane Lions
64%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though St Kilda are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 16.9 points with a combined total of 170.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.45
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.7%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions +14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.7%
Total Points
Under 180.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | W W W L L | 82.4 |
Brisbane Lions | W W W L L | 94.9 |
Avg Conceded
93.8
St Kilda
66.7
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
14.1
St Kilda
29.0
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
369.2
St Kilda
354.5
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
51.0
St Kilda
47.1
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 17 points
Predicted total: 170 · Line: -16.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.12
Team Effectiveness
-0.02
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.