# West Coast Eagles v Essendon — AFL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: West Coast Eagles 75 – 77 Essendon

_Essendon fight back to deny West Coast Eagles from 18 down._

Half time: 45 – 27 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: West Coast Eagles 18% / Essendon 82% · Optus Stadium · Fri, 18 Apr, 06:10 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — West Coast Eagles: Jack Williams (19' ×3), Jake Waterman (21' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Jayden Hunt (73'), Elijah Hewett (79' ×2) · Essendon: Peter Wright (15' ×6 1st Tipped 🎯), Dylan Shiel (43'), Archie Perkins (80' ×2), Sam Draper (86' Tipped ⚡), Nic Martin (65')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Essendon | 82% | Won |
| West Coast Eagles | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 17.2 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**West Coast Eagles vs Essendon Bombers Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

West Coast Eagles 75–77 Essendon in AFL Round 6 at Optus Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two very different ideas about how to win a game of footy were on show at Optus Stadium, and for three quarters West Coast Eagles' version looked like it might carry the day. Essendon got there anyway, 77-75, in a finish nobody watching at three-quarter time would have picked.

West Coast played on ambition. They went inside 50 forty-seven times to Essendon's 42, marked it inside there sixteen times to twelve, and out-tackled Essendon 57 to 51. That's a team happy to fling it forward and back itself in the air and at the contest. It worked early. West Coast led 30-8 at quarter time and 45-27 at half time, the kind of scoreline that suggested Essendon's structure had come undone.

Essendon's method was patience. They had 348 disposals to West Coast's 326, ran at 74.3 per cent efficiency against 71.9, and took 93 marks to West Coast's 81. Most tellingly, they won clearances 37 to 22. That's not a team throwing the ball forward and hoping. That's a team happy to hold it, work it through better hands, and wait for its openings.

The third quarter is where that patience paid off. West Coast's lead had shrunk from 18 points at the main break to nothing by the three-quarter time siren, locked at 61-61. Essendon had clawed back an 18-point deficit without needing to change what they were doing, just doing it more of it, and better. From there it was a straight shootout, with Essendon finding the two points that mattered in the last term.

The clearance gap explains a lot of it. Essendon's dominance through the middle, backed by ruck and midfield ratings of 1052 and 1016 against West Coast's 932 and 950 coming in, meant they controlled first use of the ball for long stretches. West Coast's edge was always going to be forward half pressure and marking targets, reflected in their 1009 forward rating against Essendon's 971, and it showed in the inside 50 count and the cleaner hands inside their attacking zone. But territory without the football doesn't do much if the other side keeps winning it back at the source.

West Coast's form line coming in had them conceding 89.1 points a game on average, Essendon 97.8. On the day it was West Coast leaking the more costly points, coughing up a game they led by 18 at the break.

Alphr's model had Essendon winning at 82 per cent, and got that right along with the other two picks in a clean sweep for the match. The margin model wasn't close, tipping Essendon by 17.2 when it finished at 2, but the model never claimed to have seen West Coast's fast start or Essendon's response coming quite that tight. Right about who, wrong about how nervy it would get.

Essendon controlled the contest without controlling the scoreboard until it counted.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Eagles | 30 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 75 |
| Essendon | 8 | 19 | 34 | 16 | 77 |

**Key Match Stats**

| West Coast Eagles | Stat | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| 326 | Disposals | **348** |
| **119** | Contested poss. | 117 |
| 22 | Clearances | **37** |
| **47** | Inside 50s | 42 |
| 81 | Marks | **93** |
| **16** | Marks inside 50 | 12 |
| **57** | Tackles | 51 |
| **39** | Hit-outs | 35 |
| **69** | Intercepts | 63 |
| 71.9% | Disposal eff. | **74.3%** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Essendon to win at 82% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 17.2 but the actual margin was 2 points. Essendon trailed 45–27 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 75–77. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Essendon to win @ $1.33 (edge +7.0%) — model probability 82.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +21.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 17 · Predicted total: 164

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 18th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 33 · 66 | 26 · 39 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 4.8/g |
| Disposals | 109/g | 100/g |
| Inside 50s | 19.2/g | 14.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.8/g | 5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 67.6% | 68.8% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 9th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 16 | 18 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 1.4/g | 5/g |
| Disposals | 87/g | 163/g |
| Inside 50s | 10.8/g | 28/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 73.5% | 71.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | West Coast Eagles | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 3 · 4 | 7 · 7 |
| Goal Assists | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Disposals | 103/g | 135/g |
| Inside 50s | 11.8/g | 9.5/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0/g | 1.3/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.2% | 78% |

**Who scores on Essendon** — Defenders 1.52/g (lg 1.33) +14% · Forwards 5.08/g (lg 4.46) +14% · Key Forwards 3.86/g (lg 3.61) +7%
**Who scores on West Coast Eagles** — Midfielders 3.65/g (lg 2.37) +54% · Rucks 0.73/g (lg 0.5) +46% · Key Forwards 4.96/g (lg 3.61) +37%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Optus Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**West Coast Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jamie Cripps | FWD | 6 in 5g | 14/10g (1·1·3·1·2·0·1·2·2·1) | 22/13g | 90/75g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.27 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $15.50 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Liam Ryan | FWD | 6 in 3g | 12/10g (1·2·0·2·1·0·0·3·1·2) | 11/8g | 67/57g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.23 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Archer Reid | KF | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (0·0·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.60 AI 74% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Jack Williams | KF | 3 in 3g | 10/10g (1·3·1·1·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 4/2g | 12/15g | 62% | — | 🏉 19' 55' 89' |
| – | Matthew Owies | FWD | 3 in 5g | 10/10g (1·1·1·3·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 7/4g | 8/5g | 82% | — | — |
| – | Tyrell Dewar | DEF | 3 in 5g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Harley Reid | MID | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/13g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Jake Waterman | KF | 2 in 2g | 19/10g (1·2·2·3·4·1·2·2·2·0) | 12/7g | 84/56g | 82% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' 24' 30' |
| – | Jayden Hunt | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/9g | 10/27g | 16% | — | 🏉 73' |
| – | Matt Flynn | RUC | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/6g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Tom Gross | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Brady Hough | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/31g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Hewett | FWD | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/11g | 19% | — | 🏉 79' 83' |
| – | Hamish Davis | MID | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Harry Edwards | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/24g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Graham | FWD | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 3/11g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Hutchinson | FWD | 0 in 2g | 2/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy McGovern | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 5/64g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Liam Baker | DEF | 0 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 3/11g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Liam Duggan | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/72g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Reuben Ginbey | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/23g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Maric | MID | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 6/16g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tim Kelly | MID | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 19/52g | 22% | — | — |

**Essendon** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Sam Draper | RUC | 6 in 4g | 14/10g (1·1·1·3·1·1·1·3·2·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 86' |
| – | Zach Merrett | MID | 6 in 4g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·2·4·0·0) | 4/14g | 6/11g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jye Menzie | FWD | 5 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·4) | 2/3g | 3/2g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jade Gresham | FWD | 4 in 4g | 10/10g (2·0·3·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 5/8g | 7/7g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.28 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Nate Caddy | KF | 4 in 4g | 10/10g (2·0·1·3·0·0·0·0·2·2) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 75% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Isaac Kako | FWD | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Nic Martin | FWD | 3 in 4g | 9/10g (0·0·2·0·3·1·0·1·1·1) | 2/5g | 3/4g | 46% | — | 🏉 65' |
| – | Xavier Duursma | MID | 3 in 4g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 4/5g | 3/5g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Archie Perkins | FWD | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/6g | 2/6g | 34% | — | 🏉 80' 82' |
| – | Ben Hobbs | FWD | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 2/4g | 3/4g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Jones | DEF | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 3/4g | 64% | — | — |
| – | Mason Redman | DEF | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/9g | 1/10g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Archie Roberts | DEF | 1 in 4g | 2/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Shiel | MID | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/14g | 2/5g | 20% | — | 🏉 43' |
| – | Andrew McGrath | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/10g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ben McKay | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Prior | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Ridley | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Peter Wright | RUC | no games | 11/10g (0·4·0·1·0·2·2·2·0·0) | 13/7g | 8/4g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.11 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $11.75 AI 5% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 15' 38' 40' 65' 89' 72' |
| – | Saad El-Hawli | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Durham | MID | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 1/4g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Will Setterfield | MID | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Zach Reid | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**West Coast Eagles**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Baker ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 66% | 22 ✓ |
| Tim Kelly | 22.5 | $1.92 | 43% | 22 ✓ |
| Ryan Maric ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.96 | 82% | 20 ✓ |
| Jeremy McGovern | 19.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 23 ✗ |
| Liam Duggan | 19.5 | $1.80 | 62% | 14 ✓ |
| Jack Graham | 18.5 | $1.94 | 54% | 24 ✗ |
| Harley Reid | 17.5 | $1.88 | 39% | 17 ✓ |

**Essendon**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | 31.5 | $1.88 | 53% | 26 ✓ |
| Dylan Shiel ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.88 | 65% | 23 ✓ |
| Sam Durham | 24.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 19 ✓ |
| Nic Martin | 24.5 | $1.80 | 48% | 26 ✗ |
| Jordan Ridley | 23.5 | $1.88 | 63% | 16 ✓ |
| Will Setterfield | 22.5 | $1.86 | 62% | 20 ✓ |
| Mason Redman | 21.5 | $1.95 | 46% | 18 ✓ |
| Andrew McGrath | 21.5 | $1.80 | 39% | 25 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)