AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 93% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 46.8 but the actual margin was 71 points. Western Bulldogs led 56–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 71. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
93%
St Kilda
7%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Western Bulldogs carry a 29-point ELO rating advantage (1538 vs 1509). Recent form favours St Kilda with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 46.8 points with a combined total of 194.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.56
Winner ✓
Edge
+28.5%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+28.5%
Total Points
Over 176.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | WWLLL | 88.8 |
St Kilda | WWWLL | 95.2 |
Avg Conceded
92.6
Western Bulldogs
92.2
St Kilda
Avg Margin
-3.8
Western Bulldogs
3.0
St Kilda
Disposals
363.4
Western Bulldogs
363.6
St Kilda
Inside 50s
50.0
Western Bulldogs
50.0
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 47 points
Predicted total: 194 · Line: +46.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.11
Team Effectiveness
+0.75
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.