# Western Bulldogs v St Kilda — AFL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Western Bulldogs 127 – 56 St Kilda

_Western Bulldogs run riot over St Kilda._

Half time: 56 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Western Bulldogs 93% / St Kilda 7% · Marvel Stadium · Tue, 24 Feb, 10:45 pm AEDT

**Goal Kickers** — Western Bulldogs: Joel Freijah (3' ×2 1st), Rhylee West (18' ×3), Matthew Kennedy (20' ×2), Aaron Naughton (34' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Marcus Bontempelli (37' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Ryley Sanders (66'), Jason Johannisen (69'), Ed Richards (84'), Tom Liberatore (71'), Lachlan McNeil (79'), Bailey Williams (82') · St Kilda: Mitch Owens (5' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Jack Sinclair (7'), Jack Higgins (15' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Wilson (84')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 93% | Won |
| St Kilda | 7% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 46.8 predicted → 71 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda Saints Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Western Bulldogs 127–56 St Kilda in AFL Round 6 at Marvel Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Kilda led at the first change. Read that again, because it won't happen for the rest of the afternoon: 25 to 23, Saints up two at quarter time at Marvel Stadium. Then the Western Bulldogs scored 33 to St Kilda's 3 in the second term and the contest was over before it really started.

Half time read 56-28. From there it was just accumulation. Three-quarter time had it at 91-44, and the final margin blew out to 71, Western Bulldogs 127, St Kilda 56. Whatever plan St Kilda had for that opening quarter, it didn't survive contact with the rest of the game.

The disposal count tells you why. Western Bulldogs finished with 427 to St Kilda's 344, and did it more efficiently too, 80.0% to 71.2%. St Kilda actually edged the contested possession count, 131 to 128, which makes the gap everywhere else more damning. Winning the hard ball and still getting buried by 71 points is not a good look.

Clearances were where it turned into a rout. Western Bulldogs won that count 44-23, nearly double, and every one of those clean exits fed a forward line that went inside 50 a remarkable 69 times to St Kilda's 31. Marks inside 50 followed the same pattern, 21 to 9. That's not pressure, that's a side that had the footy in dangerous territory more than twice as often and made St Kilda defend it over and over.

The pre-match numbers had this coming, just not to this scale. Western Bulldogs went in rated stronger everywhere that matters: forwards 1087 to 1026, defence 1047 to 964, ruck 1074 to 986, midfield 1030 to 1000. Recent form backed it up too. Western Bulldogs arrived averaging a plus-17.9 margin across their last five, conceding just 65.4 points a game. St Kilda came in at minus-6.2 on average, leaking almost 86 a game. Put simply, one side was building winning habits and the other was patching leaks.

Alphr's model had Western Bulldogs at 93% to win and picked a Bulldogs margin of 46.8 on a combined total of 194. The win call landed easily. The margin didn't, not even close, with the actual gap running 24 points past the projection. When a team hits 69 inside 50s and cashes in 21 marks inside that arc, no model is built to see that coming from a side that trailed at quarter time.

Tackles were close, 56 to 52, and intercepts were dead level at 58 apiece, so this wasn't won by smothering the ball carrier or picking off loose kicks. It was won by clean hands, repeat forward entries and a scoreboard that simply refused to stop moving once the Bulldogs found their range in the second term. St Kilda had the first quarter. Western Bulldogs had the other three, and that was more than enough.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 23 | 33 | 35 | 36 | 127 |
| St Kilda | 25 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 56 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Western Bulldogs | Stat | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| **427** | Disposals | 344 |
| 128 | Contested poss. | **131** |
| **44** | Clearances | 23 |
| **69** | Inside 50s | 31 |
| **131** | Marks | 85 |
| **21** | Marks inside 50 | 9 |
| **56** | Tackles | 52 |
| **32** | Hit-outs | 31 |
| 58 | Intercepts | 58 |
| **80.0%** | Disposal eff. | 71.2% |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 93% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 46.8 but the actual margin was 71 points. Western Bulldogs led 56–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 71. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.56 (edge +28.5%) — model probability 92.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +28.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 47 · Predicted total: 194

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Western Bulldogs | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 41 · 51 | 38 · 47 |
| Goal Assists | 4/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 99/g | 63/g |
| Inside 50s | 14.8/g | 11.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 8/g | 6.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 66.1% | 66.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Western Bulldogs | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 11 | 19 · 19 |
| Goal Assists | 5.6/g | 4/g |
| Disposals | 170/g | 178/g |
| Inside 50s | 30.2/g | 26/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 1.8/g | 5/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 69.5% | 70.7% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Western Bulldogs | St Kilda |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 7 · 6 | 13 · 1 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 4.2/g |
| Disposals | 94/g | 123/g |
| Inside 50s | 8.4/g | 15.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.6/g | 1.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 80.1% | 75.5% |

**Who scores on St Kilda** — Midfielders 2.35/g (lg 2.37) -1% · Key Forwards 3.27/g (lg 3.61) -9% · Forwards 4.02/g (lg 4.45) -10%
**Who scores on Western Bulldogs** — Midfielders 2.46/g (lg 2.37) +4% · Key Forwards 3.31/g (lg 3.61) -8% · Forwards 4.04/g (lg 4.45) -9%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Marvel Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Western Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Sam Darcy | KF | 14 in 5g | 26/10g (1·1·7·2·1·1·4·2·5·2) | 1/2g | 21/15g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.03 AI 90% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $8.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Aaron Naughton | KF | 8 in 5g | 17/10g (2·0·2·2·3·3·0·1·1·3) | 15/7g | 104/67g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.08 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' 45' 79' |
| – | Lachlan McNeil | FWD | 6 in 5g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 12/30g | 42% | — | 🏉 79' |
| – | Ryley Sanders | MID | 6 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·1) | 0/1g | 3/11g | 28% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Rhylee West | FWD | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 2/3g | 27/31g | 60% | — | 🏉 18' 39' 81' |
| – | James O'Donnell | DEF | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 5/17g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Joel Freijah | FWD | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 25% | — | 🏉 3' 74' |
| – | Matthew Kennedy | MID | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 5/8g | 24/37g | 42% | — | 🏉 20' 81' |
| – | Bailey Dale | DEF | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 11/8g | 48/79g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Sam Davidson | MID | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Tom Liberatore | MID | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/11g | 40/112g | 28% | — | 🏉 71' |
| – | Bailey Williams | DEF | 1 in 5g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 18/72g | 34% | — | 🏉 82' |
| – | Ed Richards | MID | 1 in 5g | 7/10g (1·1·2·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 18/59g | 30% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Josh Dolan | FWD | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lachlan Bramble | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/20g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Buku Khamis | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/16g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Hynes | FWD | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jason Johannisen | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 37/94g | 36% | — | 🏉 69' |
| – | Liam Jones | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 35/74g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Cleary | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Bontempelli | MID | no games | 10/10g (0·2·1·0·1·2·2·0·1·1) | 19/14g | 135/123g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.17 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' 43' |
| – | Rory Lobb | RUC | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/9g | 34/35g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tim English | RUC | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 39/62g | 42% | — | — |

**St Kilda** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jack Higgins | FWD | 14 in 5g | 22/10g (2·0·1·3·2·2·4·3·3·2) | 0/7g | 78/54g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.07 AI 87% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' 69' |
| – | Mason Wood | MID | 9 in 5g | 12/10g (0·0·0·1·2·2·2·3·1·1) | 9/6g | 76/71g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Mitch Owens | KF | 8 in 4g | 13/10g (1·1·0·1·2·0·2·4·2·0) | 4/2g | 37/33g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 86' |
| – | Cooper Sharman | KF | 6 in 3g | 17/10g (2·2·3·0·2·2·0·2·1·3) | 1/2g | 30/28g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 80% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Max Hall | FWD | 6 in 5g | 6/5g (2·0·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.65 AI 64% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Lance Collard | DEF | 5 in 4g | 5/7g (0·0·0·2·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/3g | 43% | — | — |
| – | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | MID | 5 in 5g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·3) | 0/3g | 4/39g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jack Sinclair | DEF | 4 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 3/11g | 37/98g | 28% | — | 🏉 7' |
| – | Bradley Hill | DEF | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/12g | 18/72g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Darcy Wilson | FWD | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 10/15g | 45% | — | 🏉 84' |
| – | Marcus Windhager | MID | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/29g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Hugo Garcia | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/8g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Rowan Marshall | RUC | 1 in 5g | 9/10g (1·2·3·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 41/68g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Byrnes | MID | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 4/35g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Caminiti | DEF | 0 in 5g | 5/10g (0·3·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 19/20g | 54% | — | — |
| – | Arie Schoenmaker | DEF | 0 in 1g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Callum Wilkie | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/67g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Macrae | MID | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 27/125g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Jack Steele | MID | 0 in 4g | 6/10g (1·3·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 36/88g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Jimmy Webster | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/98g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Liam Henry | FWD | no games | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/14g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Liam Stocker | DEF | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/34g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Zak Jones | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 10/45g | 14% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Western Bulldogs**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Liberatore | 27.5 | $1.80 | 63% | 29 ✗ |
| Bailey Dale ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 67% | 32 ✗ |
| Ed Richards ⚡ Under | 24.5 | $1.91 | 71% | 23 ✓ |
| Matthew Kennedy ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.82 | 65% | 22 ✓ |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 22.5 | $2.00 | 39% | 30 ✗ |
| Bailey Williams | 17.5 | $1.87 | 46% | 30 ✗ |
| Joel Freijah | 17.5 | $1.87 | 53% | 24 ✗ |
| Tim English | 16.5 | $1.88 | 59% | 17 ✗ |

**St Kilda**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Macrae ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 19 ✓ |
| Jack Sinclair | 27.5 | $1.87 | 59% | 21 ✓ |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ⚡ Under | 27.5 | $1.88 | 68% | 25 ✓ |
| Jack Steele | 22.5 | $1.88 | 58% | 16 ✓ |
| Marcus Windhager ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.90 | 68% | 21 ✗ |
| Bradley Hill ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.90 | 66% | 17 ✓ |
| Ryan Byrnes | 17.5 | $1.85 | 50% | 13 ✓ |
| Darcy Wilson | 17.5 | $1.87 | 55% | 17 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)