AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 93% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 46.8 but the actual margin was 71 points. Western Bulldogs led 56–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 71. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
93%
St Kilda
7%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 34-point ELO rating advantage (1553 vs 1519). Recent form favours St Kilda with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 46.8 points with a combined total of 194.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.56
Winner ✓
Edge
+28.5%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+28.5%
Total Points
Over 176.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | W W L L L | 96.7 |
St Kilda | W W W L L | 95.6 |
Avg Conceded
65.4
Western Bulldogs
86.0
St Kilda
Avg Margin
17.9
Western Bulldogs
-6.2
St Kilda
Disposals
340.8
Western Bulldogs
361.0
St Kilda
Inside 50s
52.5
Western Bulldogs
58.0
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 47 points
Predicted total: 194 · Line: +46.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.11
Team Effectiveness
+0.75
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.