# Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide — AFL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sydney Swans 77 – 85 Port Adelaide

_Port Adelaide hold off a fast-finishing Sydney Swans._

Half time: 19 – 46 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sydney Swans 63% / Port Adelaide 37% · SCG · Sun, 20 Apr, 03:20 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Sydney Swans: Isaac Heeney (7' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Will Hayward (46' ×2 Tipped ⚡), James Rowbottom (66'), Hayden McLean (71' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Aaron Francis (66' ×3) · Port Adelaide: Sam Powell-Pepper (4' ×2 1st), Mitch Georgiades (14' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Ollie Lord (23' Tipped ⚡), Connor Rozee (25'), Tom Cochrane (37'), Willie Rioli (43' ×3 Tipped ⚡), Darcy Byrne-Jones (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 63% | Lost |
| Port Adelaide | 37% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.4 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Sydney Swans 77–85 Port Adelaide in AFL Round 6 at SCG. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Port Adelaide won 85-77 at the SCG. Straightforward enough on the ledger, except Sydney had more of nearly everything that's supposed to win you a footy match. More disposals, 382 to 307. More clearances, 46 to 33. More inside 50s, 61 to 53. And they still lost by eight.

The reason sits in the timeline. Port Adelaide led 26-8 at quarter time and 67-39 at the last change, a 28-point buffer built before Sydney had properly turned up. Then the Swans found something, outscoring Port Adelaide 38 to 18 in the final term. A fine finish, and completely irrelevant to the outcome. You can't spot a side that much footy for three quarters and expect a final-term rally to cover it.

What actually decided this was efficiency inside the arc and around the ball. Port Adelaide took 86 marks to Sydney's 61, and 14 of those came inside forward 50 against Sydney's 9. That's the gap between a side moving the ball with clean hands into scoring position and a side that had to work far harder for the same real estate. Sydney's extra 75 disposals and 13 more clearances bought them plenty of the ball. It didn't buy them enough of the scoreboard.

Port Adelaide's other calling card was pressure, 57 tackles to 42, and it lines up with what the pre-match numbers flagged. Port came in rated stronger in the ruck, 1100 to 1039, stronger in defence, 1077 to 1050, and stronger through the midfield, 1023 to 997. Hit-outs were close, 43 to 41, but the downstream numbers, the marks, the tackles, the efficiency edge at 73.4% to 71.4%, all tilt Port's way. That's a side built to win the contest where it counts rather than just win the count.

Form lines back it up too. Port Adelaide arrived averaging 106.7 points a game to Sydney's 84.4, and conceding less as well, 94.98 to Sydney's 80.5. On raw scoring power, this was closer to script than the pre-match probabilities suggested.

Which brings up the model's read, because it copped a hit here. Sydney were installed at 63% to win, with the ratings favouring them 1529 to 1577 against Port and an expected margin of 8.4 points in the Swans' favour. Instead Port won by 8. Not a wild margin miss in terms of the number itself, the model had the gap right down to the point, it just had the wrong team winning it. That's the sting in a margin model that nails the size of the result and flips the direction entirely.

One read did hold up. The total was tipped under 176.5, and at 162 combined points, that call was clean.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 8 | 11 | 20 | 38 | 77 |
| Port Adelaide | 26 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 85 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sydney Swans | Stat | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| **382** | Disposals | 307 |
| **156** | Contested poss. | 110 |
| **46** | Clearances | 33 |
| **61** | Inside 50s | 53 |
| 61 | Marks | **86** |
| 9 | Marks inside 50 | **14** |
| 42 | Tackles | **57** |
| 41 | Hit-outs | **43** |
| **74** | Intercepts | 71 |
| 71.4% | Disposal eff. | **73.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Port Adelaide defied the model's 63% prediction for Sydney Swans, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.4 but the actual margin was 8 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 176.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.56 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 62.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sydney Swans -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 176.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 8 · Predicted total: 170

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Sydney Swans | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 11th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 40 · 38 | 40 · 45 |
| Goal Assists | 3.6/g | 5.8/g |
| Disposals | 112/g | 128/g |
| Inside 50s | 16.2/g | 20.2/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 7.2/g | 9.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 70.2% | 71.4% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Sydney Swans | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 17 · 13 | 16 · 11 |
| Goal Assists | 3/g | 3.4/g |
| Disposals | 126/g | 150/g |
| Inside 50s | 24/g | 22.4/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.4/g | 2.8/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 68.9% | 71.5% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Sydney Swans | Port Adelaide |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 16th (weak) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 5 · 8 | 7 · 10 |
| Goal Assists | 1.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposals | 110/g | 112/g |
| Inside 50s | 13/g | 10.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 77.3% | 77.3% |

**Who scores on Port Adelaide** — Defenders 1.54/g (lg 1.32) +17% · Forwards 4.52/g (lg 4.45) +2% · Key Forwards 3.41/g (lg 3.6) -5%
**Who scores on Sydney Swans** — Rucks 0.65/g (lg 0.51) +27% · Forwards 4.4/g (lg 4.45) -1% · Midfielders 2.24/g (lg 2.37) -5%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SCG. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sydney Swans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Will Hayward | FWD | 8 in 5g | 14/10g (3·0·2·0·1·1·1·1·4·1) | 5/7g | 87/72g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.15 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $12.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 67' |
| – | Chad Warner | MID | 7 in 5g | 13/10g (2·1·0·2·1·2·2·1·2·0) | 4/4g | 41/44g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.18 AI 69% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Hayden McLean | KF | 6 in 3g | 11/10g (2·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·3) | 3/3g | 35/32g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.12 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' 93' |
| – | Tom Hanily | FWD | 6 in 5g | 6/5g (0·1·1·2·2) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 63% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Braeden Campbell | FWD | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 9/35g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Corey Warner | FWD | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Heeney | MID | 4 in 5g | 14/10g (1·3·3·2·1·0·2·0·0·2) | 13/9g | 116/92g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.25 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $14.50 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 7' 88' |
| – | Tom McCartin | DEF | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 17/58g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jake Lloyd | FWD | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 18/110g | 20% | — | — |
| – | James Rowbottom | FWD | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 19/51g | 26% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Matt Roberts | MID | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/16g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Nick Blakey | DEF | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 21/56g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Oliver Florent | DEF | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 20/78g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Riley Bice | DEF | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Francis | KF | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/14g | 12% | — | 🏉 66' 70' 74' |
| – | Brodie Grundy | RUC | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 3/20g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Caiden Cleary | FWD | 0 in 2g | 2/7g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Dane Rampe | DEF | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 6/110g | 8% | — | — |
| – | James Jordon | MID | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 7/16g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Joel Hamling | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Justin McInerney | MID | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 16/41g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Lewis Melican | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/42g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Sam Wicks | DEF | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 16/27g | 36% | — | — |

**Port Adelaide** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Mitch Georgiades | KF | 12 in 5g | 23/10g (4·2·1·3·1·0·4·2·3·3) | 5/4g | 1/1g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 60' 85' |
| – | Willie Rioli | FWD | 7 in 5g | 16/10g (2·3·1·2·1·1·3·0·0·3) | 7/6g | 3/4g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' 83' 78' |
| – | Jason Horne-Francis | MID | 6 in 5g | 12/10g (2·2·1·1·0·1·1·1·3·0) | 2/5g | 1/3g | 72% | — | — |
| – | Sam Powell-Pepper | FWD | 6 in 5g | 11/10g (2·0·0·2·1·0·3·0·1·2) | 6/7g | 4/3g | 70% | — | 🏉 4' 63' |
| – | Connor Rozee | MID | 4 in 5g | 8/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·2·0·0·2) | 9/7g | 3/2g | 46% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEF | 4 in 4g | 10/10g (1·2·1·0·2·0·1·1·2·0) | 2/10g | 1/5g | 68% | — | 🏉 74' |
| – | Ollie Lord | KF | 4 in 2g | 15/10g (4·1·0·2·1·1·1·1·3·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.30 AI 73% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' |
| – | Jackson Mead | FWD | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jase Burgoyne | MID | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ollie Wines | MID | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/15g | 1/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Travis Boak | FWD | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 11/14g | 6/7g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Jordon Sweet | RUC | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Kane Farrell | DEF | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Miles Bergman | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tom Cochrane | FWD | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Willem Drew | MID | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Aliir Aliir | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/30g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Christian Moraes | FWD | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Esava Ratugolea | DEF | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 2/5g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Josh Sinn | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Jones | DEF | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Rory Atkins | DEF | no games | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 4/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Zak Butters | MID | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 1/2g | 38% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Sydney Swans**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Heeney ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.87 | 66% | 22 ✓ |
| Corey Warner ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.94 | 99% | 9 ✓ |
| Chad Warner | 22.5 | $1.94 | 56% | 21 ✓ |
| Matt Roberts ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.80 | 69% | 30 ✗ |
| James Rowbottom ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.88 | 70% | 23 ✗ |
| Nick Blakey | 19.5 | $1.80 | 56% | 27 ✗ |
| Jake Lloyd | 19.5 | $1.93 | 45% | 22 ✗ |
| Riley Bice ⚡ Under | 19.5 | $1.98 | 70% | 22 ✗ |
| Oliver Florent | 17.5 | $1.79 | 45% | 18 ✗ |

**Port Adelaide**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | 26.5 | $1.87 | 62% | 27 ✗ |
| Connor Rozee ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.78 | 68% | 27 ✗ |
| Ollie Wines | 25.5 | $1.80 | 49% | 8 ✓ |
| Jason Horne-Francis ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.80 | 67% | 20 ✓ |
| Willem Drew ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.85 | 69% | 9 ✓ |
| Jase Burgoyne | 20.5 | $1.85 | 54% | 15 ✓ |
| Kane Farrell | 18.5 | $1.85 | 54% | 26 ✗ |
| Miles Bergman | 17.5 | $1.97 | 54% | 12 ✓ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)