AI Game Review
Port Adelaide defied the model's 63% prediction for Sydney Swans — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 8.4 but the actual margin was 8 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 176.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
63%
Port Adelaide
37%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Port Adelaide are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Sydney Swans ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Sydney Swans carry a 68-point ELO rating advantage (1563 vs 1495). The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 8.4 points with a combined total of 170.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.56
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.5%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans -10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.5%
Total Points
Under 176.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | WWLLL | 84.2 |
Port Adelaide | WWLLL | 87.6 |
Avg Conceded
81.6
Sydney Swans
91.2
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
2.6
Sydney Swans
-3.6
Port Adelaide
Disposals
347.6
Sydney Swans
389.0
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
50.0
Sydney Swans
50.0
Port Adelaide
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 170 · Line: +8.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.19
Team Effectiveness
-0.06
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.