AI Game Review
Port Adelaide defied the model's 63% prediction for Sydney Swans, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.4 but the actual margin was 8 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 176.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
63%
Port Adelaide
37%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Port Adelaide are far from out of this at 37%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Port Adelaide carry a 48-point ELO rating advantage (1577 vs 1529). Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 8.4 points with a combined total of 170.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.56
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.5%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans -10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.5%
Total Points
Under 176.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | W W W L L | 84.4 |
Port Adelaide | W L L L L | 106.7 |
Avg Conceded
80.5
Sydney Swans
95.0
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
4.9
Sydney Swans
9.7
Port Adelaide
Disposals
357.8
Sydney Swans
357.3
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
52.5
Sydney Swans
50.3
Port Adelaide
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1577 vs 1529), but the market favours Sydney Swans (@1.56).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 170 · Line: +8.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.19
Team Effectiveness
-0.06
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.