# Adelaide Crows v GWS GIANTS — AFL Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Adelaide Crows 52 – 34 GWS GIANTS

_Adelaide Crows swoop on GWS GIANTS._

Half time: 23 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Adelaide Crows 48% / GWS GIANTS 52% · Adelaide Oval · Sat, 19 Apr, 04:15 pm AEST

**Goal Kickers** — Adelaide Crows: Riley Thilthorpe (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Taylor Walker (21' ×2 Tipped ⚡), Alex Neal-Bullen (80'), Izak Rankine (76' Tipped ⚡) · GWS GIANTS: Josh Kelly (38'), Darcy Jones (66'), Harvey Thomas (62'), Jake Stringer (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| GWS GIANTS | 52% | Lost |
| Adelaide Crows | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.2 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Adelaide Crows vs GWS GIANTS Prediction & Tips | AFL Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Feb 2026, 10:45 pm_

Adelaide Crows 52–34 GWS GIANTS in AFL Round 6 at Adelaide Oval. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Adelaide Crows beat GWS GIANTS 52–34 at Adelaide Oval. Adelaide Crows led 43–20 at three-quarter time and held on.

Adelaide Crows's ruck division got on top, winning 47 hit-outs to 18. Adelaide Crows controlled the midfield, winning 37 clearances to 24. Adelaide Crows pressed forward more often, going inside 50 56 times to 43. Adelaide Crows were cleaner inside forward 50 with 9 marks to 5.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 20 | 3 | 20 | 9 | 52 |
| GWS GIANTS | 3 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Adelaide Crows | Stat | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| 359 | Disposals | **382** |
| **138** | Contested poss. | 122 |
| **37** | Clearances | 24 |
| **56** | Inside 50s | 43 |
| 76 | Marks | **104** |
| **9** | Marks inside 50 | 5 |
| 53 | Tackles | **61** |
| **47** | Hit-outs | 18 |
| 81 | Intercepts | **86** |
| 66.8% | Disposal eff. | **68.4%** |

**Model Report Card**

Adelaide Crows defied the model's 52% prediction for GWS GIANTS, a notable result. The predicted margin of 9.2 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The game's 86 points came in 69 points lower than the predicted 155. The model went 2/3 on this match. Adelaide Crows covered the 11.5-point line. The under 178.5 total call was correct.

_Official AFL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $2.62 (edge +13.7%) — model probability 51.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 9 · Predicted total: 155

### H2H History (Last 5) — GWS GIANTS lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Adelaide Crows | 157 – 101 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2024 | R16 | Adelaide Crows | 94 – 78 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2023 | R18 | Adelaide Crows | 57 – 71 | GWS GIANTS |
| 2023 | R1 | GWS GIANTS | 106 – 90 | Adelaide Crows |
| 2022 | R7 | Adelaide Crows | 54 – 113 | GWS GIANTS |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (18 teams)._

**Forwards** (Key Forwards · Med/Mid Forwards)

|  | Adelaide Crows | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 69 · 44 | 55 · 29 |
| Goal Assists | 7.4/g | 5.2/g |
| Disposals | 113/g | 102/g |
| Inside 50s | 23/g | 22.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 11.8/g | 10.6/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 71.9% | 67.5% |

**Midfield & Ruck** (Midfielders · Rucks)

|  | Adelaide Crows | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Goals scored · conceded | 21 · 20 | 14 · 12 |
| Goal Assists | 6.4/g | 3.8/g |
| Disposals | 150/g | 151/g |
| Inside 50s | 26/g | 21.6/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 2.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.1% | 70.8% |

**Defenders** (Key & Medium Defenders)

|  | Adelaide Crows | GWS GIANTS |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Goals scored · conceded | 2 · 4 | 2 · 5 |
| Goal Assists | 1.2/g | 1/g |
| Disposals | 120/g | 127/g |
| Inside 50s | 7.4/g | 8.8/g |
| Marks Inside 50 | 0.2/g | 1/g |
| Disposal Efficiency | 79.9% | 81.8% |

**Who scores on GWS GIANTS** — Rucks 0.5/g (lg 0.51) -2% · Defenders 1.25/g (lg 1.32) -5% · Forwards 4.18/g (lg 4.45) -6%
**Who scores on Adelaide Crows** — Defenders 1.47/g (lg 1.32) +11% · Midfielders 2.51/g (lg 2.38) +5% · Forwards 4.47/g (lg 4.45) +0%

_Goals conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Goal Scorer History — Who Kicks The Goals

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Adelaide Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-goal pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Goal % = share of games with a goal, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Adelaide Crows** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darcy Fogarty | KF | 16 in 5g | 24/10g (0·1·5·2·0·4·3·2·3·4) | 6/6g | 103/61g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 83% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Riley Thilthorpe | KF | 15 in 5g | 26/10g (2·3·2·1·3·3·3·3·5·1) | 1/2g | 41/34g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.04 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| – | Taylor Walker | KF | 12 in 5g | 20/10g (0·3·2·1·2·1·1·4·4·2) | 24/13g | 271/119g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.09 AI 83% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 84' |
| – | Ben Keays | FWD | 11 in 5g | 18/10g (1·1·3·1·1·1·4·2·1·3) | 5/7g | 49/64g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 71% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Izak Rankine | MID | 6 in 5g | 15/10g (2·2·2·1·2·2·2·0·0·2) | 4/5g | 50/26g | 84% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.22 AI 70% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| – | Alex Neal-Bullen | FWD | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 9/9g | 6/15g | 44% | — | 🏉 80' |
| – | Daniel Curtin | MID | 4 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·1·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/8g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Jake Soligo | FWD | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 16/37g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Sid Draper | MID | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (0·0·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/3g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Isaac Cumming | MID | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/11g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Dawson | MID | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 19/44g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Matt Crouch | MID | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 23/88g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Hinge | DEF | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/38g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Wayne Milera | DEF | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 18/58g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Zac Taylor | FWD | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Josh Worrell | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/20g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Luke Nankervis | DEF | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/15g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Mark Keane | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Max Michalanney | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/29g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Murray | DEF | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/32g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Reilly O'Brien | RUC | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 7/69g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Rory Laird | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 18/128g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Sam Berry | MID | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 3/31g | 16% | — | — |

**GWS GIANTS** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Goal % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Toby Greene | FWD | 14 in 5g | 22/10g (1·2·2·0·3·1·3·2·3·5) | 25/14g | 26/16g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.06 AI 87% ✗ No goal; 🎯 First Goal $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Aaron Cadman | KF | 6 in 5g | 16/10g (3·1·2·3·1·0·2·1·1·2) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 76% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.20 AI 78% ✗ No goal | — |
| – | Darcy Jones | FWD | 5 in 5g | 9/10g (2·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 66% | — | 🏉 66' |
| – | Callan Ward | MID | 3 in 5g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 8/16g | 3/15g | 42% | — | — |
| – | Toby Bedford | FWD | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/5g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tom Green | MID | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 3/4g | 4/6g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Callum Brown | FWD | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/5g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Finn Callaghan | MID | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Wehr | MID | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jake Riccardi | KF | 2 in 2g | 10/10g (1·0·2·2·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 2/4g | 7/5g | 78% | — | — |
| – | Jake Stringer | KF | 2 in 3g | 12/10g (0·1·1·4·1·1·2·0·0·2) | 20/12g | 15/11g | 80% | ⚡ Anytime Goal $1.26 AI 76% ✓ Scored | 🏉 78' |
| – | Xavier O'Halloran | MID | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Harvey Thomas | MID | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 42% | — | 🏉 62' |
| – | Sam Taylor | DEF | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Connor Idun | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Conor Stone | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Harry Himmelberg | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/10g | 13/14g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Jack Buckley | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Josh Kelly | MID | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/14g | 10/16g | 42% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Kieren Briggs | RUC | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Ash | DEF | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Lachie Whitfield | DEF | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 3/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Toby McMullin | DEF | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 46% | — | — |

### Player Props — Disposal Counts

_Bookmaker disposal lines vs our model's read. ⚡ = the validated under signal (model ≥10 points past the price) — everything else is market intel, not a tip. The ⚡ under signal's verified record: 57.7% of 1,278 flags in 2025._

**Adelaide Crows**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Crouch | 28.5 | $1.87 | 56% | 26 ✓ |
| Rory Laird | 27.5 | $1.65 | 63% | 21 ✓ |
| Jake Soligo ⚡ Under | 25.5 | $1.87 | 78% | 22 ✓ |
| Jordan Dawson | 24.5 | $1.80 | 52% | 27 ✗ |
| Izak Rankine ⚡ Under | 22.5 | $1.95 | 80% | 20 ✓ |
| Mitchell Hinge ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.99 | 66% | 19 ✓ |
| Ben Keays | 17.5 | $1.85 | 51% | 18 ✗ |
| Josh Worrell | 17.5 | $1.94 | 52% | 19 ✗ |

**GWS GIANTS**

| Player | Line | Under | AI Under | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Whitfield ⚡ Under | 30.5 | $1.87 | 74% | 39 ✗ |
| Tom Green | 30.5 | $1.91 | 59% | 36 ✗ |
| Josh Kelly | 24.5 | $1.96 | 54% | 17 ✓ |
| Finn Callaghan | 23.5 | $1.95 | 58% | 27 ✗ |
| Lachie Ash ⚡ Under | 23.5 | $1.80 | 68% | 29 ✗ |
| Harry Himmelberg ⚡ Under | 20.5 | $1.89 | 69% | 18 ✓ |
| Connor Idun ⚡ Under | 18.5 | $1.76 | 67% | 26 ✗ |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-24 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)