AI Game Review
Adelaide Crows defied the model's 52% prediction for GWS GIANTS — a notable result. The predicted margin of 9.2 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The game's 86 points came in 69 points lower than the predicted 155. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 178.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
48%
GWS GIANTS
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives GWS GIANTS a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. GWS GIANTS carry a 102-point ELO rating advantage (1680 vs 1578). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Adelaide Crows. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 9.2 points with a combined total of 155.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @2.62
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.7%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -11.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.7%
Total Points
Under 178.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | WWWLL | 120.0 |
GWS GIANTS | WWWWL | 97.4 |
Avg Conceded
92.0
Adelaide Crows
67.0
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
28.0
Adelaide Crows
30.4
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
382.0
Adelaide Crows
380.4
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
50.0
Adelaide Crows
50.0
GWS GIANTS
ELO–Market Disagreement
GWS GIANTS hold the ELO advantage (1680 vs 1578), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.62).
The model sides with ELO — GWS GIANTS predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 155 · Line: +9.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.26
Team Effectiveness
-0.31
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.